我国外贸企业高坏账率的成因分析及对策研究

近年来,在我国外贸持续增长的繁荣背后,一个数字令人触目惊心,即我国出口业务的坏账率高达5%,这无疑对出口企业的生存和发展构成了极大的危害。而从宏观层面来看,则是国家外汇的一种严重流失。因此,迅速采取积极有效的应对措施已是迫在眉睫。本文在对我国出口企业海外高坏账率的现状及原因进行深刻剖析的基础上,有针对性地提出了破题之策。     

浅析人民币汇率变动原因及其影响

汇率作为国际金融的重要指标，一直以来都是实现和衡量一国经济内外均衡的工具。本文从宏观和微观两个方面分析了人民币汇率变动对中国经济的影响，并提出相应措施以保持人民币汇率的稳定，促进我国经济内外均衡发展。     

Credit constraints and smallholder dairy production in the East African highlands: application of a switching regression model

Accurate assessment of farmers' credit constraint condition is important in order to understand the circumstances under which credit would have its greatest impact. In this study a switching regression model was used to determine the impact of credit on smallholder dairy farms in the East African highlands using farm level data from Ethiopia and Kenya. Farmers were classified as credit constrained or credit non-constrained based on their responses from the farm level surveys. No consistent relationship was found between farmers' credit constraint condition and their borrowing status. Most of the variation in milk output per farm was explained by the number of crossbred milking cows in the dairy herd. As credit is likely to facilitate investment in crossbred dairy cows it will have substantial impacts on smallholder dairy farms especially if it is targeted to credit constrained farms.     

THIS IS NOT A CREDIT CRISIS – IT IS A DEBT CRISIS

Using an analogy with ancient Babylonia as its leading theme, this viewpoint argues that the credit crisis is the symptom of an underlying problem. Fuelled by government policies, unprecedented debt levels were run up in industrialised countries over the last quarter century. Present policies of financial sector bailouts are not only an unwise use of taxpayers' money; they maintain economic structures opposed to what classical liberals such as J. S. Mill envisaged as a free-market economy.     

Cyclical correlations, credit contagion, and portfolio losses

We model aggregate credit losses on large portfolios of financial positions contracted with firms subject to both cyclical default correlation and direct default contagion processes. Cyclical correlation is due to the dependence of firms on common economic factors. Contagion is associated with the local interaction of firms with their business partners. We provide an explicit normal approximation of the distribution of portfolio losses. We quantify the relation between the variability of global economic fundamentals, strength of local firm interaction, and the fluctuation of losses. We find that cyclical oscillations in fundamentals dominate average losses, while local interaction causes additional fluctuations of losses around their average. The strength of the contagion-induced loss variability depends on the complexity of the business partner network.     

Why evolution does not always lead to an optimal signaling system

This paper gives a complete characterization of neutrally stable strategies for sender–receiver games in the style of Lewis, or Nowak and Krakauer [Lewis, D., 1969. Convention: A Philosophical Study. Harvard Univ. Press, Cambridge, MA; Nowak, M., Krakauer, D., 1999. The evolution of language. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA 96, 8028–8033]. Due to the dynamic implications of neutral stability, the replicator dynamics of this model does not necessarily lead to the rise of an optimal signaling system, where every state of the world is bijectively linked to one signal and vice versa, but it can be trapped in suboptimum situations where two (or more) signals are used for the same event, or two (or more) events are associated with one and the same signal.     

我国小额农贷可持续发展的困境及对策研究——基于绍兴地区的调研

小额农贷的推出改变了传统扶贫方式主要依靠国家财政或外来捐赠资金、扶贫效果不明显的局面,依靠一种新型的信贷运作模式实现了部分地区扶贫项目的规范化、长期化运作。但我国农村小额信贷的发展目前仍处于实验探索阶段,还面临着各种各样的风险和挑战。本文以浙江绍兴地区为例分析了我国农村小额信贷发展过程中的问题,并提出有针对性的建议以实现我国小额农贷的可持续发展。     

商业银行客户信用评级研究--基于平衡计分卡视角

信贷业务是国内商业银行的主营业务,客户信用评级作为控制商业银行信贷风险的重要一环是商业银行进行授信、贷款审批和贷后管理的基础。客户信用评级体系的开发和完善也成为了当前银行工作的重点。文章基于平衡计分卡的视角,针对当前商业银行客户信用评级管理的现状与不足,从四个方面对评级指标进行选取。同时使用层次分析法对指标体系进行权重分配并设定相应的评分标准和客户信用等级,最后通过案例分析对模型的操作性和有效性进行了验证。文章的评级模型并不同于国外研究论述的数学模型,其在操作上更加简便,信息获取也较为方便,更加适合当前我国商业银行借鉴和使用,因此也在一定程度上对我国商业银行客户信用评级体系的不断完善提供了参考意见。     

非线性延迟系统Runge-Kutta方法的稳定性探讨

针对时间依赖型的非线性多变延迟系统,采用变步长的Runge-Kutta方法求解,证明了匹配一定插值方法的代数稳定的Runge-Kutta方法是VR稳定的。     

Price Stability in Economies with Habit Persistence

This paper shows that the divine‐coincidence does not hold in a sticky price model with external habit if a time‐varying tax rate on labor income is not implemented to fully eliminate the time‐varying distortions associated with external habit and monopoly power in goods market. The required labor income tax rate is inversely related to the risk‐free real interest rate and the markup in the goods market, but it is proportional to the degree of external habit. Under this circumstance, the optimal monetary policy commands a countercyclical interest rate, having a perfect negative correlation with tax rate in the sticky price model with external habit. If a time‐invariant tax is the only fiscal instrument, then the degree of external habit entails a gap between the private marginal rate of substitution between consumption and labor and the social marginal rate of substitution, generating an endogenous trade‐off between the stabilization of welfare‐relevant output gap and inflation. Under this circumstance, price stability is not the optimal policy. The monetary policy authority should optimally try to undo the time‐varying distortions associated with external habit and monopoly power in goods market by deviating from price stability.