Does Social Capital Reduce Moral Hazard? A Network Model for Non‐Life Insurance Demand*

We study the effect of social capital in an environment in which formal, marketed insurance contracts coexist with informal agreements. We show that in the absence of peer monitoring and social pressure, non‐marketed contracts crowd out formal ones due to moral hazard. We prove, by means of an equilibrium concept typical of the network literature, that social capital can reduce moral hazard in informal agreements. We then show that under certain conditions, social capital increases the demand for marketed insurance contracts. The theoretical model we outline provides us clear guidance to measure social capital in a provincial‐level data set. The empirical model, which is estimated controlling for panel and spatial structure, supports our claim that social capital increases the demand for non‐life insurance.     

小企业贷款的信用风险与化解策略

作为小企业间接融资的首选渠道,商业银行在其中扮演着非常重要的角色。然而小企业贷款对于商业银行而言,存在风险高、成本高、效率低、收益低的现象。文章对小企业存在的信用风险进行了分析,并提出了政策建议。     

Credit CARD Act of 2009: What did banks do?

The Credit CARD Act of 2009 was intended to prevent practices in the credit card industry that lawmakers viewed as deceptive and abusive. Among other changes, the Act restricted issuers’ account closure policies, eliminated certain fees, and made it more difficult for issuers to change terms on credit card plans. Critics of the Act argued that because of the long lag between approval and implementation of the law, issuing banks would be able to take preemptive actions that might disadvantage cardholders before the law could take effect. Using credit bureau data as well as individual data from a survey of U.S. consumers, we test whether banks closed consumers’ credit card accounts or otherwise restricted access to credit just before the enactment of the CARD Act. Because the period prior to the enactment of the CARD Act coincided with the financial crisis and recession, causality in this case is particularly difficult to establish. We find evidence that a higher fraction of credit card accounts were closed following the Federal Reserve Board’s adoption of its credit card rules, but not between May 2009, when the CARD Act was signed, and when most of its provisions became law in February 2010. However, we do find evidence that banks deteriorated terms of credit card plans at a higher rate during this period, especially lowered the credit limits. Among the survey respondents whose bank accounts were closed during that period, account holders were much more likely to close their own credit card accounts than to have them closed by their card issuers.     

Background filtrations and canonical loss processes for top-down models of portfolio credit risk

In single-obligor default risk modeling, using a background filtration in conjunction with a suitable embedding hypothesis (generally known as ℍ-hypothesis or immersion property) has proven a very successful tool to separate the actual default event from the model for the default arrival intensity. In this paper we analyze the conditions under which this approach can be extended to the situation of a portfolio of several obligors, with a particular focus on the so-called top-down approach. We introduce the natural ℍ-hypothesis of this setup (the successive ℍ-hypothesis) and show that it is equivalent to a seemingly weaker one-step ℍ-hypothesis. Furthermore, we provide a canonical construction of a loss process in this setup and provide closed-form solutions for some generic pricing problems. Financial support by the National Centre of Competence in Research “Financial Valuation and Risk Management” (NCCR FINRISK) is gratefully acknowledged. NCCR FINRISK is a research program supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF). The authors would like to thank Monique Jeanblanc and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions. Parts of this paper were presented at RiskDay 2006, Zurich. All remaining errors are our own. Comments and suggestions are very welcome.     

金融犯罪立法问题论析——以《刑法修正案》为研究视角

从近年来的金融犯罪立法态势看,部分条文呈现出以下几个特征:破坏了刑法典的稳定性,背离了刑法的谦抑性,条款设置缺乏前瞻性。为了使金融犯罪立法更合理、更科学、更灵活,需从金融犯罪立法的定位、前置刑法制度的完善及刑事条款设置的重构等层面入手,以实现刑法典的稳定、谦抑及超前等目标。     

信用卡转换成本研究综述

早在上世纪80年代,经济学家开始研究存在转换成本的市场竞争问题。目前,有关转换成本的研究主要集中在电信、银行存款及信用卡等市场领域。研究信用卡转换成本对银行业发展、信用卡产业的发展等具有重要现实意义。本文基于转换成本一般研究基础之上,从转换成本的内涵与类型、对消费者的影响及研究方法等方面对学术界有关信用卡转换成本的研究进行了梳理和概括,以期为今后的信用卡转换成本的深入研究提供参考。     

银保协作、ART保险与银行信用风险转移

在分析银保协作与可选择性风险转移(Alternativ Risk Transfer,即 ART)保险的内在逻辑基础上,进一步分析 ART 保险实现银行信用风险转移的内在机理,并以此为依据设计银保信贷系统的 ART 保险机制。结果表明,ART 保险可以有效分担银保信贷系统的信用风险,降低银保信贷系统的风险运营成本,提升银保信贷系统的运营效率,并实现商业银行信用风险转移目标。可见,推行银保协作型信贷模式,对于治理信贷配给,从而提升信贷市场效率具有重要意义。     

财务指标评价银行信贷风险的实例运用

纵观古今,对于全球银行业来说,信贷风险管理的好坏决定了银行的生死存亡。近年来,随着我国银行业体制改革深入,各家银行信贷业务发展迅速,但是我国银行业信贷风险管理观念薄弱,管理水平仍较低,信贷业务快速发展和风险管理相对滞后的矛盾日益凸显,国内关于银行信贷风险管理手段和技术的研究也比较落后,本文将着重从财务报表分析角度探讨财务指标在信贷风险评价中的运用,探讨财务指标在信贷风险评价中的有效性。     

基于数据挖掘的持卡人信用风险管理研究

目前的信用卡信用风险研究主要是如何提高模型的预测准确率。针对银行信用卡数据的异质性和信用数据的高度非线性,本文提出了对持卡人信用风险管理的混合数据挖掘方法。该方法包含两个阶段,在聚类阶段,样本数据被聚成同质的类,删除孤立点,不一致样本点重置标签,使样本更具有代表性;在分类阶段,基于样本进行训练生成支持向量机分类器法,对待分样本分类。基于实际数据进行了数值实验,并根据各类样本的特点提出了相应的风险管理策略。     

Interbank relationship lending revisited: Are the funds available at a similar price?

Under the market discipline hypothesis, monitoring by interbank lenders may induce changes in either the price or availability of new interbank funds to borrower banks. However, the presence of interbank relationship lending has been evaluated based on the availability of funds only—disregarding their price. We revisit relationship lending in unsecured interbank lending markets by simultaneously evaluating the availability and price of funds. We calculate the survival ratio of networks containing the price of daily interbank lending in Colombia from 2014 to 2020. Under this framework, an interbank relation survives from one day to the next if the funds are available at a price that does not increase too much; that is, either a halt in interbank funding or a sizeable increase in the price of interbank funding mark a break in the relation between two banks. We find that about 38 percent of relations in the Colombian unsecured interbank lending market survive from one day to the next. Therefore, from a comprehensive market discipline perspective, we find evidence of interbank relationship lending in Colombia.