Does scoring a subpopulation make a difference

Scorecards used by consumer credit providers to assess the probability that an applicant will default are usually built for the population of potential applicants as a whole. This paper investigates whether it is permissible and worth-while to build a separate scorecard for each subpopulation of applicants. We review the legal requirements to find that it is permissible to use separate scorecards for many, but not all, personal characteristics. Second, using data supplied by a credit card organization separate scorecards were built for several subpopulations for each of twelve personal characteristics. The predicted performance of each was compared with that gained form estimating a scorecard for the full population using three methods for setting the cut-off scores in an `independent' way. These methods differ in the degree to which the cut-off scores are independent of information about other subpopulation, in the level of discrimination achieved between likely good payers and defaulters and in the degree to which each method is robust to new data. We conclude, first, that creating scorecards using subpopulations does not necessarily give better discrimination between likely good payers and defaulters. Second, none of the three methods examined to set the cut-off scores dominates the others using the three desirable properties described; trade-offs are required. Finally, subpopulation scorecards lead to the rejection of fewer applicants than scorecards built on full populations.     

边境口岸对俄合作适应性战略调整的对策研究

全球金融危机虽然对中俄贸易产生了一定影响,但并未阻止中俄两国经贸合作的步伐,中俄双方的经济互补性依然很强,从中央到地方各级政府和企业之间的合作愿望、合作基础并未发生变化,两国经济合作健康发展的基本面和长期向好的趋势并未改变。黑龙江省边境口岸应积极巩固对俄货物贸易,优化进出口商品结构,提高对俄出口商品质量;大力发展服务贸易,努力扩大旅游服务,壮大新兴服务产业;实施＂大基地＂战略,拓展外贸发展空间,努力扩大物流,以实现新时期黑龙江省对俄经贸合作的战略性调整。     

系统视角下城市一体化交通节点项目投融资机制优化研究——以南京为例

BOT投融资模式改变了城市重大基础施建设仅靠政府出资的单一形式,调动了社会资本参与城市重大基础设施建设的积极性,加快了城市发展进程。但由BOT融资模式自身决定的项目使用收费机制,使得交通节点BOT项目,成为制约城市经济社会一体化发展的"软"瓶颈。本文以南京市为例,基于系统论视角,关注城市一体化进程中交通节点BOT项目的外部效应,打破条块分割,将项目与正外部性受益主体作为一个整体系统,提出城市一体化交通节点项目投融资机制优化的新思路,通过外部效应内部化,改变BOT项目通过收费回本获利的传统机制,实现城市发展总体效益的最大化。     

电子图书和印刷体图书的整合流通

本文认为,随着电子图书发行量和发行渠道的增加,由于各种技术和管理上的原因,人为造成传统印刷体图书和电子图书在使用环节上分离并形成资源大量浪费现象,给读者的使用特别是图书馆文献服务系统的建设工作增加了许多障碍。文章提出,为解决印刷体图书和电子图书在图书馆应用中存在的问题,应将印刷体图书和电子图书进行整合,从国家文献资源信息化工程开始,建立统一标准,整合各方资源,充分利用信息技术,建立从图书出版发行、相关电子资源制作、文献检索平台到自动化系统的一条龙服务系统,为图书馆和读者提供方便、快捷的印刷体图书和电子图书使用环境。     

Asian Transnational Corporations and Labor Rights: Vietnamese Trade Unions in Taiwan-invested Companies

According to the reports in the past decade, some Asian subcontractors, mainly Taiwan, Hong Kong and Korea transnational corporations, tend to be labor abusive in their overseas investment destinations like China or Southeast Asia. Taking Vietnam as an example, this paper raises questions as to why Taiwanese transnational companies can control workplace unions in a trade-union-supportive regime. Given the government s constraint of political rights, and the individualized workplace unions, the function of trade unions in Vietnam is destined to be limited. The trade unions turn out be an arm of management, rather than representing workers interests in these transnational companies. This article also explores the influence of the newly developed codes of conducts from Western buyers. In the survey of three companies which are required to follow the codes of conduct by buyers, trade unions had no more freedom than those in companies without codes of conduct. The paper discusses the implications of this research, offering strategies for labor rights improvements.Hong-zen Wang is the director of the Graduate Institute of Southeast Asian Studies at the National Chi Nan University, Taiwan. A sociologist, he has written widely on Asian labor and class issues. The most recent article The Impact of the State on Workers Conditions–Comparing Taiwanese Factories in China and Vietnam will be published in Pacific Affairs. His current research interests include industrial relations in Taiwan-owned or partially owned factories in Vietnam and the impact of global anti-sweatshop movement on the third world factories.     

FDI and economic growth: the role of local financial markets

In this paper, we examine the various links among foreign direct investment (FDI), financial markets, and economic growth. We explore whether countries with better financial systems can exploit FDI more efficiently. Empirical analysis, using cross-country data between 1975 and 1995, shows that FDI alone plays an ambiguous role in contributing to economic growth. However, countries with well-developed financial markets gain significantly from FDI. The results are robust to different measures of financial market development, the inclusion of other determinants of economic growth, and consideration of endogeneity.     

郁南县“信用工程”背景下小额信贷的扶贫绩效研究

小额信贷作为一种创新的金融服务工具,研究其绩效对我国金融改革和创新具有重要的作用。文章研究郁南县实施“信用工程”背景下小额信贷的扶贫绩效。通过问卷调查统计分析,我们发现小额信贷在一定程度上可以缓解农户贷款难问题,改善农户的生活水平,但效果不是很明显,“信用工程”还需要进一步推进。通过定量分析,我们得出结论是：总体上,小额贷款你能促进农民增收,但效果不是很显著;对于不同收入阶层,小额信贷的扶贫绩效对中低收入水平的农户不明显,但对高收入阶层的农户很显著。     

Informal barriers and agricultural trade: does monetary integration matter?

EU enlargement and the recent sovereign‐debt crisis of Euro zone countries have revived the debate around the (European Monetary Union) EMU. In this article we ask how informal barriers to agricultural and food trade have changed since the introduction of the common European currency, and whether this evolution can be attributed to monetary integration. We focus on the foreign trade of the 11 EMU founder countries over a nine‐year period covering the creation of the EMU and find a diminishing marginal trade impact of both information and institutional barriers. We find a lower level of trade barriers, but cannot attribute this outcome to the introduction to the Euro.