The maturity effect of stock index futures: Speculation or carry arbitrage?

Using the implementation of trading restrictions on CSI 300 index futures market as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper examines the maturity effect of stock index futures and its determinants. The results show that the maturity effect changes from weakly positive to significantly negative after trading restrictions are implemented. We find that the change in the maturity effect is rooted in the speculative effect, which is measured by the time pattern of price sensitivity to information, while there is a lack of support for the carry arbitrage effect on the maturity effect of index futures. Our findings provide an opportunity to better understand volatility dynamics in the equity futures market.     

The price discovery role of day traders in futures market: Evidence from different types of day traders

Using proprietary account-level transaction data in the futures market where day traders are self-declared ex ante, this study investigates whether day traders enhance price discovery at the market level. From a natural classification of day traders, we find that heterogeneous day traders have differential effects on price discovery. Self-declared day traders, who benefit from low margin requirement, do not improve price discovery measured by information share. In contrast, non-declared traders, who are not self-declared as day traders, improve price discovery. Their positive impacts on price discovery are particularly significant during periods of high volatility and arrival of new information. Overall, a margin stimulating policy may encourage more day trading, but may also attract overconfident investors, especially inexperienced ones, and who do not enhance price discovery.     

Intraday data and hedging efficiency in interest spread trading

Three government bond futures contracts and their respective 3-month interest rate futures contracts traded on LIFFE are examined. The data period covers three years of observations, January 1994-December 1996, sampled at half-hourly intervals. Borrowing from the calculation of minimum variance hedge ratios, half-hourly minimum variance spread ratios (the ratio of one contract to another, which provides the minimum variance) are estimated for the above contracts. The hypothesis under examination is whether there is any value-added in estimating minimum spread ratios based on intraday data. Three spread ratios are defined: two ratios calculated from daily data and a third one based on intraday data. Evidence tends to indicate that spread ratios calculated from intraday data exhibit a substantially lower variance than the other two spread ratio speciications. Thus, it is shown that intraday data, in comparison with daily data, allow for lower hedging costs. Moreover, the use of intraday-based spread ratios might be a contributing factor to reducing the maximum cumulative loss potentially incurred while holding a spread position.     

Efficiency tests with overlapping data: an application to the currency options market

This paper presents the results of an empirical study into the efficiency of the currency options market. The methodology derives from a simple model often applied to the spot and forward markets for foreign exchange. It relates the historic volatility of the underlying asset to the implied volatility of an option on the underlying at a specified prior time and then proceeds to test obvious hypotheses about the values of the coefficients. The study uses panel regression to address the problem of overlapping data which leads to dependence between observations. It also uses volatility data directly quoted on the market in order to avoid the biases which may occur when ‘backing out’ volatility from specific option pricing models. In general, the evidence rejects the hypothesis that the currency option market is efficient. This suggests that implied volatility is not the best predictor of future exchange rate volatility and should not be used without modification: the models presented in this paper could be a way of producing revised forecasts.     

美元贬值和石油价格变动相关性的实证分析

进入新世纪以来,由于各种因素导致美元不断贬值,与此形成鲜明对比的是,石油价格一路飙升。那么,美元汇率和石油价格之间是否存在着某种因果关系呢?由于期货市场具有价格发现功能。本文以最具代表性的美国纽约商品交易所的原油期货价格为研究对象,分析美元贬值和石油价格之间的关系。本文首先定性分析美元贬值导致石油价格上涨的传导机制,然后利用模型对相关数据进行实证分析。研究结果表明,石油期货价格的上涨,除了有美元指数的影响之外,更重要的原因是前期石油期货价格上涨对本期石油期货价格上涨有正向的推动作用。     

2006年石油价格展望

本文对影响2006年石油价格的因素做了系统分析。认为2006年形成油价风险的主要动因已从需求的波动转向供给的波动;2006年油价将由于供求的脆弱平衡维持高位运行的格局,并且,由于供给链中潜在的危机,油价波动性将会非常大;但在全球经济增速下降、石油需求增长放缓、石油生产国家和公司仍然在努力满足市场需求、炼油瓶颈有望缓和的大背景下,油价在2006年按2005年可比价格计不会大幅上升,不会对全球经济产生重大负面影响。     

沪深300股指期货与现货市场的非线性信息溢出与价格发现功能研究

采用线性与非线性Granger因果检验、协整检验和VECM模型,研究了沪深300股指期货和现货市场的线性与非线性信息溢出,并检验了期货市场的价格发现功能发挥情况。研究结果显示:线性信息溢出方面,沪深300股指期货市场对现货市场只有线性均值信息溢出,现货市场对期货市场只存在线性方差信息溢出;非线性信息溢出方面,两个市场之间不存在非线性均值信息溢出,不过二者之间存在显著的非线性方差信息溢出;沪深300股指期、现货市场之间存在着长期均衡的关系,不过不同于成熟市场中期货市场在价格发现方面居于主导地位的结论,我国股指现货市场在价格发现方面占主导地位,而期货市场处于从属地位。     

吉林省粮食价格变动特征及成因分析

近年来,受全球原油价格攀升、部分粮食主产国自然灾害频发、畜牧业和工业需求大幅增加等因素影响,国际市场粮食价格震荡走高,且涨幅较大。尤其是2012年以来,美国、俄罗斯等粮食主产区遭受了高温干旱、台风、暴雨等自然灾害,减产预期不断增加,粮食价格大幅攀升。为此,我们对粮食价格情况进行了深入的分析,结果显示,吉林省粮食价格自2004年开始逐年上涨,在促进农民增收的同时,也对城乡居民尤其是低收入群体的日常生活产生一定影响,并且已成为推动我省居民消费价格总水平走高的最主要因素。     

碳排放权市场价格发现功能的实证分析

碳期货市场在碳市场扮演着极为重要的角色,通常具有价格发现的功能。本文分析了国际碳排放权交易市场两种主要商品EUA、CER的期货价格关系．通过向量误差修正模型和公共因子模型对欧盟碳期货EUA与CER期货进行了实证研究。结果显示：EUA、CER这两种主要碳排价格指标之间具有很高的相关性,存在长期均衡的协整关系,均扮演着重要的价格发现角色,同时EUA期货价格引导CER期货价格变化。     

基于EGRACH模型的股指期货对股市非对称性波动影响的实证研究

本文基于EGRACH模型,利用高频数据,实证检验了沪深300股指期货对我国股市非对称波动的影响。实证研究表明,沪深300股指期货与现货市场之间存在互为格兰杰因果关系,在股指期货初期股指期货对股市的波动有放大作用,在远期降低了非对称性波动,具有稳定股市的功效。