Credit growth,current account and financial depth

Exploring the determinants and dynamics of the current account balance is one of the priorities of academic literature and policy circles. Although the effects of structural variables are deeply analysed, a lesser attention has been paid to the impact of financial variables. Drawing on standard empirical current account models and with a large sample of industrial and developing countries, we report a significant deterioration in the current account balance in case of an increase in the credit growth. Moreover, we find that this link is substantially stronger for the developing ones motivating a closer examination. Therefore, we further advance our analysis and show that credit growth causes a stronger impact on the current account balance for lower levels of financial depth. In other words, at the early stages of financial development, acceleration in the credit growth might cause a larger deterioration in the current account balance; thus, it might be suggested that monetary policy and macro-prudential measures aimed at preventing financial excess might be more effective to reduce the external imbalances at the early stages of financial deepening.     

Fisher Ideal Indexes in the National Income and Product Accounts

The mastery of the spreadsheet technique has become almost universal in economics departments. The authors explain, step-by-step, how the spreadsheet can be used as an instructional aid to teach basic microeconomic concepts.     

The Basic Ways of Solving the Problems of Underlying Liabilities of China＇s Endowment Insurance

The supply of basic pension is seriously lacking, the personal accounts is operated with no money. This is a problem belonging to conversion cost in essence. This paper points out that the government should undertake the responsibility to solve the problem by using the increment method and stock method to repay the latent liability; then the government can enrich the personal accounts in response to the aging population crisis and the concussion brought by the endowment insurance system＇s conversion.     

Sustainable and Excessive Current Account Deficits

Both the Mexican crisis of 1994–95 and the Asian financial crisis of 1997–98 have been preceded by large current account deficits run by the affected economies. External deficits are often assumed to play an important role in the propagation of financial crises in emerging markets. Policymakers are faced with a new challenge: that of resisting or accepting the large current account deficits that may result from heavy private capital inflows. This paper aims at providing some guidance:First, the Lawson Doctrine – according to which current account deficits that result from a shift in private-sector behaviour should not be a public policy concern – has been discredited by recent currency crises in Latin America and Asia. Second, define the size of current account deficits that should be sustainable in the long run. Third, the intertemporal approach to the current account does not provide a reliable benchmark to define when deficits become excessive. Fourth, large external deficits should be resisted if unsustainable currency appreciation, excessive risk-taking in the banking system and a sharp private spending boom are seen to coincide.     

中国养老保险统筹账户的财务可持续性研究——基于开放系统的测算

文章运用精算估计方法,预测分析了我国城镇职工养老保险统筹账户的财务状况和财务可持续性。研究结果表明,年度支付危机会在2018-2036年之间出现,2023-2050年内源性基金累积不足值得格外关注。从长期看,如果没有外源性融资,仅靠制度本身的资金支持,统筹账户的财务可持续性难以为继。现阶段政府关注的重点应是如何扩大养老保险收入来源和完善养老保险的制度设计。     

广西高职院校英语教师CALL现状及对策

计算机辅助外语教学（CALL）效能的发挥直接受教师因素的影响,同时还受经济发展水平制约。文章以广西某高职院校为研究个案,调查广西高职院校外语教师CALL现状,了解取得的成绩和存在的问题,并结合实际,为教学管理部门和教师提出一些建议与对策。     

全球经济失衡问题研究的新进展

归纳梳理了国内外对全球经济失衡问题的研究成果.其中美国经常账户赤字最先引起广泛的关注,实体经济和金融制度层面均存在导致本轮全球经济失衡的因素.美国经济的调整将对世界经济产生重要影响,多国协调行动有利于失衡的有序调整.进一步的研究方向包括亚洲地区盈余的可持续性、失衡政策原因的考察等等.     

当前职业院校审美教育的现状分析及解决途径

审美教育即美育是职业素质教育的有机组成部分,它对培养高素质人才具有重要作用,正日益受到人们的关注。但当前由于多种因素影响,很多职业院校依然在误读与忽视美育,学生审美素养不容乐观,这就需要广大教育者转变观念,加大对美育的研究与宣传,找出问题所在,及时采取有效对策,提升学生综合素养,切实促进职业教育改革的深化。     

我国城镇职工基本医疗保险个人账户公平性研究

本文采用保险精算模型研究城镇职工基本医疗保险个人账户的不公平性,结果显示:个人账户确实造成了门诊医疗服务分配的不公平,工资收入在社会平均工资90%以下的人群不能很好地享受门诊医疗服务,而且收入越高,个人账户结余额越高。最后,本文提出了相应的政策调整方案以缩小人群之间的不公平程度。     

The Austrian current account deficit: Driven by twin deficits or by intertemporal expenditure allocation?

The evidence presented in the paper rejects the twin deficit hypothesis for the Austrian current account balance during the last two decades. The results are based on an estimate of a vector error correction model including quarterly data for the current account balance and potentially relevant variables driving its dynamics. We compute the variance decomposition of the current account's forecast error and its generalized impulse responses to shocks in the innovations of the system. The results in favor of intertemporal expenditure reallocation cannot be reproduced within a second analysis including the current account and a measure of net output, however. The estimated implicit current account balance, interpreted as the discounted expected change in future net output, does not follow the actual behaviour of the current account. First version received: June 1999/Final version received: March 2001