Why will Trump lose the trade war?

ABSTRACT

The escalating U.S.–China trade conflicts have increasingly shadowed the outlook of the world economy. The Trump administration aims to achieve its strategic goals including reducing current account deficits, promoting the U.S. manufacturing sector, and curbing Chinese high-tech industries by waging the trade war against China. This paper argues that the current account deficits and the declining manufacturing sector in the U.S. are mainly driven by its internal structural factors, such as low saving rates, high labor costs, and rising service sector, rather than by the import competition from China. Moreover, the trade war further deteriorates the U.S. current account deficits and erode its comparative advantage, and it forces China to invest more in technological innovation and human capital, and thus promote its progress in high-tech industries. Thus, the U.S. will not be able to achieve its strategical goals and eventually lose the trade war.     

当前我国会计信息失真原因分析

会计信息作为国民经济信息系统的重要组成部分,其质量关系到企业内部管理的成效,关系到国家宏观经济政策的制定,关系到广大投资者以及现代企业制度的建立。然而,会计信息失真是我国当前经济生活中较为普遍的现象和十分突出的问题。防止会计信息失真,提高会计信息质量,就必须找出会计信息失真的原因,只有这样才能为有效防范提出相应的对策及解决办法。     

企业环境成本核算的障碍与对策

工业经济快速发展造成了日益严重的环境问题。实施环境成本核算、采取措施控制环境成本对实现可持续发展是非常必要的。目前实施环境成本核算存在观念、制度和技术等方面的障碍。转变观念、强化企业社会责任教育、加强会计法制建设、完善市场调节等将对环境成本核算有积极促进意义。     

Tailored versus Mass Produced: Portfolio Managers Concurrently Managing Separately Managed Accounts and Mutual Funds

Using a matched sample of separately managed accounts (SMAs) and mutual funds (MFs) with the same portfolio manager and investment style, we find that concurrently managed MFs consistently underperform their SMA counterparts and generate more negative return gaps. Fund characteristics and liquidity betas fail to fully explain the underperformance. An event‐study analysis finds that the weights placed into top (bottom)‐performing stocks increase for existing SMAs (MFs) and negative return gaps increase for the MFs after the onset of concurrent management. We find that higher compensation collected by SMA fund managers are associated with more unseen managerial actions which positively contribute to the SMA return gap. Our results suggest that when managers concurrently manage both SMAs and MFs, they favor SMA performance over their MF performance.     

我国基本养老保险个人账户“空账”问题及对策研究

我国基本养老保险个人账户制度是基于传统的现收现付制的养老保险制度面临不可持续发展的财务困境的背景下发展起来的。本文通过对养老保险改革的研究,归纳总结了引起养老保险个人账户"空账"问题的原因,并针对这些原因,提出了具体的应对措施,希望能为改善我国的养老金个人账户"空账"问题改革事业做出一丝贡献。     

消费行为、产出变化与经常项目动态

国内吸收法认为,当国内需求没有完全吸收其产出时,就会通过净出口产生贸易顺差.中国持续的经常项目顺差似乎与消费需求不足有关.收入是决定居民消费需求的最基本因素之一.本文通过实证分析我国居民的消费与收入变化的关系来考察我国居民的消费需求,结合国内吸收法的思想来分析我国的经常项目动态.     

关于改进个人银行账户分类管理问题的分析

随着互联网和移动通讯技术的发展,支付领域风险范围、扩散速度、溢出效应程几何级数增长.为有效防范网络新型违法犯罪,保护人民群众财产安全和合法权益,中国人民银行相继发布了多项制度条例,全面推进个人账户分类管理.本文结合对商业银行账户分类管理专项调查结果,分析分类管理中存在的问题及原因,在此基础上,提出进一步改进个人银行账户...     

Effects of government spending shocks in China,Japan, and Korea

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the effects of government spending shocks on various key macro variables in China, Korea, and Japan using structural VAR models. The main empirical findings are as follows. Government spending multipliers of all three countries are far larger than 1 in recent years. The effectiveness of fiscal expansion has not changed markedly in China but substantially increased in Korea (after the Asian financial crisis) and Japan (during zero lower bound period). Increases in the effectiveness of fiscal expansion are associated with changes in the monetary and exchange rate policy regimes and institutions of these countries. Among the three countries, the government spending multiplier is relatively large in China but relatively small in Japan in recent years. Although the effects on exchange rate and trade balance vary across countries and sample periods, real exchange rate tends to depreciate, whereas trade balance tends to improve under flexible exchange rate regimes. Some empirical findings are consistent with standard theory, but others are not.

Abbreviations: NK: New Keynesian VAR: Vector Autoregressive ZLB: Zero Lower Bound     

树立科技矿政理念改革矿政管理制度——以资源储量消耗计征矿产资源税费

科技矿政理念的基本含义就是努力提高矿政管理的科技含量,遵循地质矿产规律,依靠科技进步显著提升我国矿产资源保护与利用水平.推动科技矿政管理进程,首先要从资源储量管理方面夯实基础,建立健全资源储量实物账户与价值账户.进而改革矿产资源权益分配方式,以资源储量消耗计征矿产资源税费.相应改革矿业权评估制度.     

居民消费能力视角下的中国经常账户顺差影响因素协整分析

持续、巨额的经常账户顺差给中国带来了一系列负面影响。彻底扭转中国经常账户失衡,迫在眉睫。文章基于居民消费能力的视角,对中国经常账户问题进行了理论和实证分析。理论研究结果表明,居民消费能力是影响中国经常账户的主要因素;实证研究结果表明,中国经常账户顺差与居民消费能力、投资率、净国外资产比率和人口抚养比存在长期动态均衡关系,其中居民消费能力是影响经常账户的重要因素且与经常账户余额/GDP呈负相关关系。最后文章提出了相关的对策和建议。