关于我国国库集中支付制度改革的思考

当前我国财政改革的重点是支出管理改革,而国库集中支付制度是支出管理改革的内容之一,该文首先分析了当前国国库管理体制存在的主要问题和建立国库集中支付制度的必要性,在此基础上提出了建立这一制度的指导,了后提出了关于建立我国国库集中支付制度的一些具体设想。     

Gaps in the IFRS Conceptual Framework

Abstract

The stated purpose of the IFRS Conceptual Framework is to assist the IASB to develop Standards that are based on consistent concepts, and also to assist preparers to develop consistent accounting policies when Standards either do not apply or allow a choice of accounting policy. Yet, the Framework actually does surprisingly little to help the IASB (or preparers) determine which assets, liabilities, income and expenses should be recognised, and how they should be measured. The Framework’s focus on assets and liabilities implies that the accounting can, and should, be determined from the balance sheet. Yet, many current financial reporting requirements focus initially on the income statement, and so they are not so much derived from the Framework as instead in need of being reconciled back to it. At its heart, the problem here is that, while the Framework states that accrual accounting provides a better basis for assessing past and future performance than cash-based information, it does not explain why. To do so would require a conceptualisation of how entities’ business models are employed to create value, and of the strengths and limitations of accounting data in enhancing investors’ understanding of that value-creation. The lack of explanation of the purpose and informational objectives of accruals, how they relate to business models and how they cause the income statement and the balance sheet to interact are gaps in the Framework. Filling those gaps would provide a more robust, and natural, way for the IASB to develop recognition and measurement requirements in its Standards.     

金融业综合统计的国际经验与启示--以日本为例

近年来,我国金融业综合统计工作发展较快,但较发达国家仍存在一定差距。日本是开展金融业综合统计较早的国家,数据涵盖范围非常广泛,并形成了一套系统、有效的数据质量提升框架。研究和参考日本相关经验对推进我国的金融业综合统计工作有重要的现实意义。     

金融发展、资本账户开放与金融不稳定——来自中国的证据

文章建立一个由金融发展程度、资本账户开放与金融不稳定指标组成的向量自回归(VAR)模型,利用中国1982~2005年的年度数据对这些变量的长期协整关系和短期的调整动力学进行相关的时间序列分析。模型的估计结果显示,对于中国来说,金融发展程度、资本账户开放和金融不稳定之间存在着长期的协整关系,但三者之间的影响程度和方向各不相同。所有结果均显示,无论从短期和长期看,金融发展程度对一国的金融稳定具有显著影响,对资本账户开放的进程也具有重要的影响。     

Why will Trump lose the trade war?

ABSTRACT

The escalating U.S.–China trade conflicts have increasingly shadowed the outlook of the world economy. The Trump administration aims to achieve its strategic goals including reducing current account deficits, promoting the U.S. manufacturing sector, and curbing Chinese high-tech industries by waging the trade war against China. This paper argues that the current account deficits and the declining manufacturing sector in the U.S. are mainly driven by its internal structural factors, such as low saving rates, high labor costs, and rising service sector, rather than by the import competition from China. Moreover, the trade war further deteriorates the U.S. current account deficits and erode its comparative advantage, and it forces China to invest more in technological innovation and human capital, and thus promote its progress in high-tech industries. Thus, the U.S. will not be able to achieve its strategical goals and eventually lose the trade war.     

Sustainable and Excessive Current Account Deficits

Both the Mexican crisis of 1994–95 and the Asian financial crisis of 1997–98 have been preceded by large current account deficits run by the affected economies. External deficits are often assumed to play an important role in the propagation of financial crises in emerging markets. Policymakers are faced with a new challenge: that of resisting or accepting the large current account deficits that may result from heavy private capital inflows. This paper aims at providing some guidance:First, the Lawson Doctrine – according to which current account deficits that result from a shift in private-sector behaviour should not be a public policy concern – has been discredited by recent currency crises in Latin America and Asia. Second, define the size of current account deficits that should be sustainable in the long run. Third, the intertemporal approach to the current account does not provide a reliable benchmark to define when deficits become excessive. Fourth, large external deficits should be resisted if unsustainable currency appreciation, excessive risk-taking in the banking system and a sharp private spending boom are seen to coincide.     

基于可持续性的养老保险个人账户目标模式

养老保险个人账户的模式有完全积累制和名义账户制等。文章从社会整体、投资收益率、社会总福利和动态发展等四个角度,分析了各种养老保险模式的优劣,并提出:当前我国可实施名义账户制;在未来,在我国储蓄率和人口结构发生变化后,可适时调整养老保险制度的模式。     

The Austrian current account deficit: Driven by twin deficits or by intertemporal expenditure allocation?

The evidence presented in the paper rejects the twin deficit hypothesis for the Austrian current account balance during the last two decades. The results are based on an estimate of a vector error correction model including quarterly data for the current account balance and potentially relevant variables driving its dynamics. We compute the variance decomposition of the current account's forecast error and its generalized impulse responses to shocks in the innovations of the system. The results in favor of intertemporal expenditure reallocation cannot be reproduced within a second analysis including the current account and a measure of net output, however. The estimated implicit current account balance, interpreted as the discounted expected change in future net output, does not follow the actual behaviour of the current account. First version received: June 1999/Final version received: March 2001     

居民消费能力视角下的中国经常账户顺差影响因素协整分析

持续、巨额的经常账户顺差给中国带来了一系列负面影响。彻底扭转中国经常账户失衡,迫在眉睫。文章基于居民消费能力的视角,对中国经常账户问题进行了理论和实证分析。理论研究结果表明,居民消费能力是影响中国经常账户的主要因素;实证研究结果表明,中国经常账户顺差与居民消费能力、投资率、净国外资产比率和人口抚养比存在长期动态均衡关系,其中居民消费能力是影响经常账户的重要因素且与经常账户余额/GDP呈负相关关系。最后文章提出了相关的对策和建议。