上市公司资本结构微观决定因素分析

我国上市公司资本结构的突出特点是偏好股权资本,内源融资和债权融资的比重偏低,这有悖于经典的资本结构理论。本文分析了决定上市公司资本结构的微观因素,并提出了优化上市公司资本结构的建议。     

利率风险与债务期限结构的正反馈效应分析

本文在总结以前学者有关债务期限结构分析的基础上,提出了债务期限结构与利率波动之间可能存在正反馈机制。通过对经筛选的我国上市企业面板数据的实证分析,发现银行间同业拆借利率可以较好地反映企业债务期限结构的变化。而分行业的实证分析则表明,利率波动加剧会使绝大多数行业的短期债务比例降低,呈现显著负相关关系。但现阶段我国的利率形成受企业债务期限结构变化的影响不明显,长短期的面板Granger因果检验无法通过。最后,本文从利率风险及利率期限结构的角度对我国上市公司特殊的债务结构给出了新的解释。     

我国国债规模的现状评价分析

当前，我国国债规模急剧扩张，这已引起社会各界的广泛关注。文章就此通过分析我国国债规模的衡量指标以及现状，提出了控制国债规模应从构建与市场经济相适应的财政收支制度着手的新举措。     

关于“债转股”的几点法律思考

政策性债转股包括国有商业银行与金融资产管理公司之间的债权转让和金融资产管理公司与国有企业间以债权换股权这两个法律关系,现阶段实行债转股可对国有企业产生诸如促进企业产权制度改革,减轻企业财务负担,优化企业法人治理结构及促使资产变现等方面的积极影响.但在实践过程中也存在着很多障碍和问题,从而限制了债转股功能的发挥.尽管如此,只要政府能给予支持,立法上能提供有效保护,债转股必然可以给东北国有企业带来一片生机.     

Forecasting recovery rates on non-performing loans with machine learning

We compare the performance of a wide set of regression techniques and machine-learning algorithms for predicting recovery rates on non-performing loans, using a private database from a European debt collection agency. We find that rule-based algorithms such as Cubist, boosted trees, and random forests perform significantly better than other approaches. In addition to loan contract specificities, predictors that refer to the bank recovery process — prior to the portfolio’s sale to a debt collector — are also shown to enhance forecasting performance. These variables, derived from the time series of contacts to defaulted clients and client reimbursements to the bank, help all algorithms better identify debtors with different repayment ability and/or commitment, and in general those with different recovery potential.     

Open access,common property and scarcity rent in fisheries

Open access resources are frequently not managed efficiently, resulting in falling stock levels and a declining income for fishermen. In the late 1970's, the policy response to this problem was the implementation of 200-mile fishing zones, which enabled the European Union to formulate and implement the Common Fisheries Policy, aimed at (among other things) conservation and distribution of available stocks. In Germany, this shift from an open access regime towards a common property regime had favourable outcomes. The trend of falling prices was reversed. The conclusion was that intertemporal efficiency had increased as a result of (inter)governmental policy. Apparently, a wedge was formed between price and marginal harvesting costs, implying that scarcity rent had returned as a component of prices.     

从京东方负债扩张看我国的杠杆收购

20上世纪80年代风靡美国的杠杆收购方式以其巨大的溢价空间和较高的财务、经营风险引起理论学者的研究和实践人士的青睐。我国现阶段,实行杠杆收购有着非常深远的影响和广阔的空间,但仍存在许多制约因素,如法律不完善、资本市场弱式化、投资银行不发达、管理人员素质不高等。     

中国上市公司负债比率偏低的影响因素分析

本文在国外资本结构理论的基础上，将西方公司与中国公司的资本结构特点进行比较，从内因和外因两个方面解释了中国上市公司负债比率偏低的现象。     

公司债务期限结构影响因素的实证分析

本文以上市公司板面数据及横截面数据为基础,利用混合时间序列回归、横截面回归和固定效果回归等方法,对影响我国上市公司债务期限结构的因素进行了实证检验。结果发现,除契约成本假说中成长机会外,绝大部分因素的检验结果与预期一致,进而验证了其适用性;经验证据不支持信息不对称假说;对税负假说相关因素的检验结果表现出不确定性;期限匹配假说得到了支持。研究还证明,具有较少自由现金流量、杠杆水平较高、规模大、受到管制和资产期限长的公司具有更多的长期债务。     

How to reform China’s fiscal system?

ABSTRACT

As the population aging, China’s government expenditures, including general fiscal expenditure, healthcare and social security expenditure, will grow more rapidly than government revenues, tending to elevate government debt. Local governments undertake overwhelming 85% of total general fiscal revenue and are responsible for healthcare and social security, and their debt has been growing. Fiscal reforms are imperative, including tax reforms, the structure of government spending reforms, social security reforms, healthcare reforms, local public finance reforms, and central and local government’s fiscal relationship reforms. This paper will explore the fiscal challenges China faces and discuss how to reform the fiscal system to cope with these challenges.