Commentary: New Currents in Science: The Challenge of Quality,examining the discrepancies and incongruities between Japanese techno-scientific policy and the citizens’ science movement in post-3/11 Japan

This commentary is inspired by my participation in the conference on post normal science: New Currents in Science: The Challenges of Quality, 2016, Ispra.First, I will describe Japanese commitment to PNS, which consists of a part of the long history of the Japanese response to European citizens' science/technology movement, in the framework of the introduction of Post-Normal Science in East Asia.Then I will re-examine the relationship between techno-science and democracy after 3/11 Japan, where triple disaster has radically changed the relationship between science/technology and society, and hence the very nature of Japan as a democratic society. Japan had been returning to an authoritarian state and technocratic nation in the aftermath of 3/11. As for the citizens' sphere, since 3/11, Japanese society has been badly divided; in fact, the current division of Japanese society is as bad as that of the Trumpian US.I have applied several conceptual tools to analyze this post-3/11 situation of Japan, that it was created by a combination of 'disaster capitalism' (a concept described by Naomi Klein (2008)), and 'normalcy bias'. The new political climate in post-3/11 Japan results in part from the politics of emergency, and partly from the manipulation and distortion of democracy.From the viewpoint of democracy and science, cases of thyroid cancer in Fukushima and its surroundings are a serious and even pathetically painful issue. One hundred seventy two children in and around Fukushima have already had their thyroids removed in surgical operations. But any suggestion of causality between the Fukushima incident and thyroid cancer is officially rejected. It is announced by the authority's voice that "radioactivity risk is safe, take it, because risk creates chance", like the proclamation given in the novel 1984 by George Orwell. Behind this is another historical psychology, that Japan has overcome Hiroshima and Nagasaki and made a great success in economic development. Post 3/11 Japan is judged as not a good place to discuss science and technology in a deliberate manner supported by a reasonable democracy with mutual understanding and value-free examination of techno-science in action. But, in this time of serious social divide and political populism, can PNS and a citizens' science approach now lead the way to fill in the gap? Are there any lessons from PNS that can be applied to post3/11 Japan? The question is still open.     

银行信贷与房地产市场的非理性

房产泡沫的形成可以用传统的套利机制和市场有效性假说来解释,本文从房产市场供求均衡的前提推导出银行过于乐观地对房产部门提供资金是推高房价的重要因素,并从银行资产组合配置的角度分析了影响银行对房产部门信贷的主要因素。除了房贷资产的预期收益、房贷违约率等因素,最重要的因素是银行的灾难近视和市场主体面临的不当激励。     

高息委托贷款与企业创新

本文分析了参与以高息委托贷款为代表的影子银行业务对企业创新活动和未来业绩的影响。通过结合管理层的短视理论,本文分析了企业从事高息委托贷款后企业创新活动变化以及盈利水平和构成的变化。结果表明,当年从事高息委托贷款降低了企业未来的专利产出水平和投入水平,并伴随未来营业利润资产收益率更低和营业外利润资产收益率更高的情形。进一步的分析表明,从事高息委托贷款与否与公司整体盈利能力没有显著差异,更多表现出盈利结构上的差异,说明从事高息委托贷款的根本动机是源于管理层的短视。     

The Tourism Market's Response to the 2009 Black Saturday Bushfires: The Case of Gippsland

One of the key roles of a destination marketing organization (DMO) is to portray their destination in such a way that it is both appealing and inviting to their existing and potential tourism market. A challenge faced by a DMO in the regional Victorian destination of Gippsland in Australia, is the fact that they also have to manage unanticipated sudden changes in market perceptions that may occur in response to a disastrous event. The reoccurring natural disasters of this region (fires, floods and drought)—the most recent being the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires, deemed Australia's worst natural disaster in history—make it imperative that DMOs can respond effectively. This article presents the findings of an exploratory research project designed to investigate the tourism market's response to this particular disastrous event. The primary aim of the research was to better understand how a large-scale disaster impacts upon the tourist's destination image and visitation intentions, and the role of the media in these deliberations. Focus group research reveals the post-disaster media interpretations, images, and visitation intentions of intrastate and interstate, regional and metropolitan tourists. Differences are observed in relation to the participants' geographic location and distance from the fires and their understandings of the event, including their reflections on media coverage. Varying perceptions among the participants of the impact of the fires, the travel risk, and subsequent travel intentions are discussed. Managerial implications relating to media management and the refinement of future disaster management strategies are also presented.     

Social risks and challenges in post-disaster resettlement: the case of Lake Nyos,Cameroon

This paper examines contemporary challenges in post-disaster resettlement in Cameroon. The focus is on the ongoing post-disaster experiences of survivors who were resettled in seven camps after the Lake Nyos Disaster in 1986. Empirical data obtained at the Ukpwa Waindo resettlement camp were used for analysis of impoverishment due to relocation and resettlement. Cameroon’s weak macroeconomic situation that started a quarter century ago had serious consequences for the country’s socio-economic trends, which is partly responsible for the slow recovery of disaster survivors. However, an analysis of social vulnerability using Cernea’s Impoverishment Risk and Reconstruction model shows how the involuntary resettlement of disaster survivors has itself created deep seated socio-economic and cultural consequences. By analysing their socio-economic situation, this article shows that resettlement is not merely a housing solution, but a complex, multi-dimensional process, with potentially very high negative impact if not properly planned and implemented. Therefore, the lessons learnt from this resettlement experience can be applied to ensure that resettlement becomes an opportunity to improve resilience and living conditions of the stricken population, and reduce exposure to disaster risk. There is urgent need for the government to tackle these long-term socio-economic problems faced by the disaster survivors, and to develop an effective policy to reconstruct, protect, improve or at least restore the livelihoods of those subject to resettlement.     

唐山大地震后重建与恢复的反思:城市规划视角的启示

中国唐山震后重建的案例,显示了计划经济时期的集中动员和举国支援下,迅速进行震后重建的社会主义国家经验。灾后援助,特别是重建是中国政府抵抗自然灾害最重视的环节,也是通常在灾害发生之后采取的应对措施。本文在唐山地震三十后,从城市规划视角对震后唐山恢复进行再审视,对传统的防灾减灾策略进行反思和总结,从而为当代中国城市安全建设提供借鉴和启示。发生在1976年的7.8级唐山大地震,震前完全没有任何防灾准备措施,造成了24万人死亡的巨大损失。震后虽然面临着数据和资料缺失的困境,在中央政府的直接干预和指挥下,地方党、政、军等力量的全面介入并提供了及时有效的灾后紧急响应措施。唐山震后规划虽然确定了"易地建设、分散发展"的重建规划思路,然而在迅速安置的要求下,后续建设还是不免落入原地重建的方式。在住房恢复方面,采取了"统一建设、统一分配"的模式,然而盲目提高建筑标准造成了时间和财力浪费,也引发了重建进度的拖延。在公共住房供给滞后的同时,大规模简易住房的兴建也给未来城市发展埋下了二次改造的隐患。唐山震后恢复的积极作用在于,为中国建筑防灾法规的完善和广泛推行提供了契机,也为八、九十年代制订和修编抗震标准积累了第一手资料。然而,这种"举倾国之力,助一城之建"的一腔热情进行城市物质空间重建与重置的带有特定时期的特点,当代中国城市防灾减灾更应从长远视角出发,促进城市经济、环境和社会的可持续发展。     

The effects of tariffs on coalition formation in a dynamic global warming game

The prospects for cooperation on climate protection beyond 2012 are currently uncertain. Thus policy instruments which foster participation in International Environmental Agreements (IEA) are in demand. Among the instruments under discussion are trade sanctions. Multi-region optimal growth models are a state of the art tool for integrated assessment, but introducing trade sanctions distorts the competitive equilibrium, making it difficult to compute numerically. We introduce trade and trade sanctions into a model of coalition stability to assess the potential of trade sanctions to support an IEA. Trade is modeled by having all countries produce a generic output good, but adopting national product differentiation (Armington assumption). Coalitions are free to impose tariffs on imports from non-cooperating countries. We solve the model numerically using a refined version of Negishi's [Negishi, T., 1960. Welfare economics and existence of an equilibrium for a competitive economy. Metroeconomica 12, 92–97] basic algorithm. We then apply the model to analyze the influence of tariffs on international cooperation. The model suggests that there is indeed a significant potential to raise participation through trade sanctions, even when goods from different countries are nearly perfect substitutes. Furthermore we investigate the effect of trade sanctions on global welfare, environmental effectiveness, and the credibility of the tariff mechanism.     

A dynamic model for disaster response considering prioritized demand points

This paper addresses the problem of distributing relief supplies after the occurrence of a disaster. We develop a dynamic model to serve demand, while prioritizing the response, according to the level of urgency of demand points. Our model is thought to be applied during a planning horizon and it considers dynamic demand, capacity constraints and priorities. To evaluate the applicability of our model, we use a real case study of a flood occurred in Colombia. We also test the computational solvability of our model and we propose and test different solution methodologies for solving larger instances of our problem.     

Effective and equitable supply of gasoline to impacted areas in the aftermath of a natural disaster

The focus of this research is on supplying gasoline after a natural disaster. There are two aspects for this work: determination of which gas stations should be provided with generators (among those that do not have electric power) and determination of a delivery scheme that accounts for increased demand due to lack of public transportation and considerations such as equity. We develop a mixed integer program for this situation. Two case studies based on Hurricane Sandy in New Jersey are developed and solved in CPLEX. As expected, increasing equity increases cost and also tends to place generators to stations with large initial inventories. It is further observed that CPLEX can solve the largest instances of the problem for a 5% tolerance gap, indicating that the model is efficient.