住宅产业价值链价值分布研究——以西安市为例

利用从西安住宅市场上调研收集的数据,根据住宅产业价值链系统结构,运用构建的住宅产业价值链价值分布测算模型——熵权-模糊综合评价模型对西安市住宅产业价值链价值分布进行了剖析。研究表明,西安市住宅产业价值链存在太过于依赖土地价值与资金价值,而投资分析、建设、营销服务等阶段价值创造能力过低,以及整体价值创造水平偏低等问题。因此,建议通过完善住宅产业的外包制度、调整土地供应制度、构建合理价值分配机制、建立价值创造联盟制度、构筑住宅产业虚拟价值链与价值网络等途径,来优化西安市住宅产业价值链价值分布格局,以促进产业升级。     

我国国民收入分配的决定因素分析

我国居民收入分配差距不断扩大,既有体制性因素,也与经济发展方式密切相关。国民收入分配格局的合理或不合理内生于我国社会经济发展的大环境。本文在深入分析我国国民收入分配决定因素的基础上,指出,政府收入规模适度扩大有利于优化国民收入分配的长期格局,并就财政如何在优化国民收入分配中发挥作用提出了建议。     

分位数局部调整模型及应用

本文基于分位数的回归理论与方法,提出了一个新的经济计量模型:分位数局部调整模型,并给出了其数学表示、参数估计与预测方法等一整套建模技术。分位数局部调整模型能够细致地给出响应变量在各个分位点上的条件分位数,便于揭示响应变量位置、散布与形状等动态调整过程的全景信息,从而得到比均值局部调整模型更为深刻的结果。最后,将分位数局部调整模型应用于中国货币需求分析,结果显示,在货币需求的不同阶段,不仅调整速度不同,调整方式也呈现出非对称性;M1存在货币失踪之谜现象,而M2却在条件密度第一个最优区域实现了供求均衡;最优货币需求条件密度曲线较为分散,这为央行制定货币政策预留了足够的空间。     

商业企业中运用JIT理论的采购模式研究

JIT及时管理对商业企业的采购管理提出了新的挑战,企业需要改变"为库存采购"的传统管理模式,提高柔性和市场响应能力,加强与供应商的信息联系,建立与供应商的新的合作模式.目前商业企业运用JIT管理方法比较滞后,尤其是在商品采购运作上.JIT理论的采购模式在商业企业中的合理运用,有利于降低商业企业的采购成本,提高商业企业物流配送效率,加快信息化建设的进程,最终实现商业企业的高效益并走上良性发展的道路.     

Generalised Rational Bias in Financial Forecasts

Laster et al. (Q J Econ 114(1):293–318, 1999) built an economic model in which forecasters have incentives to generate forecasts that differ form the consensus. It is shown that the dispersion of the equilibrium distribution of forecasters, depends on the relative importance given on the intensive forecast users’ loss versus the publicity gain from occasional users. These results depend heavily on the assumption of symmetry for the loss and density functions. In this paper we examine the effects of generalising loss preferences and probability densities to allow for asymmetries through the LinEx loss and the Skewed Normal density, respectively. We derive the generalised equilibrium distribution of forecasts which contains the results of Laster et al. as a special case. The presence of asymmetric preferences is shown to cause a movement of the distribution away from the conditional mean, towards the optimal forecast under loss asymmetry. Furthermore, forecasts now tend to cluster around this quantity in an asymmetric way. These effects tend to be further strengthened or partially offset by the presence of skewness in the distribution of data, a result consistent with the conclusions of Christodoulakis (Finan Res Lett 2:227–233, 2005).The author is grateful to an anonymous referee for helpful comments that have improved the paper. The views expressed in the paper are those of the author and should in no part be attributed to the Bank of Greece.     

资产组合风险度量与选择之文献述评

根据资产组合理论的本质，理解和掌握资产组合理论具有重要的意义。本文主要从风险度量方法比较、现实金融资产收益的实际分布与相关性、以及金融资产收益的动态变化特征等角度：对资产组合风险度量与选择的相关文献进行回顾与评述。     

股权二元结构下的股利政策--一种新的代理成本理论

本文基于股权二元结构建立了新的代理成本理论，发现并度量了分配现金股利的“再分配效应”——导致价值在流通股与非流通股之间转移，说明分配现金股利可能是大股东对流通股股东的掠夺行为。再分配效应揭示了股权二元结构的缺陷，有助于解释股利分配的一些实证现象，为现金股利的“利益输送”假说提供了理论基础。本文提出的配股一分红策略可以实现非流通股间接上市的目的。     

Is a flat tax reform feasible in a grown-up democracy of Western Europe? A simulation study for Germany

The success of the flat rate income tax in eastern Europe suggests that this concept could also be a model for countries of western Europe. The present paper uses a simulation model to analyze the effects of revenue neutral flat rate tax reforms on equity and efficiency for the case of Germany. We find that a flat rate tax with a low tax rate and a low basic allowance yields positive static welfare effects amounting to approximately 1.8% of income tax revenue but increases income inequality. The increase in income inequality can be avoided by combining a higher tax rate with a higher basic allowance. But in this case, the efficiency gains vanish. We conclude that due to their limited efficiency effects and their problematic distributional impact, flat tax reforms are unlikely to spill over to the grown-up democracies of western Europe.      

A close eye on the invisible hand

The paper shows how, and under what minimal information supply conditions, a market finds its competitive equilibrium price and thus solves the so-called tatonnement process, without sellers and buyers knowing the equilibrium price in advance. The information premises must be understood as a basic first approach, and do not necessarily mimic the real market process. Demonstration of a discovery process under these information handling conditions is an important finding for an evolutionary market theory. Additional information-processing elements should augment the efficiency of the discovery process. The results of the simulated market process set out above raise new questions. The role of institutional elements (such as the relevance of demand flexibility or “certainty” of knowledge in the learning process, etc.) is discussed further outside the context of the simulation model, providing new insight into the market process.     

Game-Theoretic Coordination Mechanisms in Distribution Channels: Integration and Extensions for Models Without Competition

A significant game-theoretic literature on the coordination of distribution channels has developed over the past three decades. We provide an extensive analysis of an important subset of this literature, channels without competition. We review four major models that build on the initial work of Jeuland and Shugan (1983) – who developed a quantity-discount schedule that induces channel members to set price and non-price, marketing-mix variables (MM-variables) at channel-coordinating levels. Moorthy (1987) criticized their schedule's complexity, arguing for a simpler wholesale contract that induces coordination by avoiding double marginalization.