Investor sentiment and country exchange traded funds: Does economic freedom matter?

Using unbalanced panel data of 27 iShares MSCI country-specific exchange traded funds (ETFs) over the period 1996–2014, this paper applies quantile regression to examine the impacts of global, foreign, and U.S. investor sentiments on the returns of the ETFs traded in the U.S. markets. We further investigate whether a country’s economic freedom affects the relationship between investor sentiments and ETF returns. We find that ETF returns are strongly determined by investor sentiments and the ETF expense ratio. The quantile regression approach reveals that high-return ETFs are positively sensitive to changes in global sentiment (measured by market turnover, VIX, U.S. federal funds rate), foreign sentiment (measured by current account balance, inflation, market turnover, public debt), U.S. sentiment, currency exchange ratio, and expense ratio, while negatively influenced by economic freedom and Asian proxy. The effects of VIX and foreign inflation are a reversal; that is, returns from lower (higher) quantiles have a negative (positive) relation with VIX and foreign inflation. Not all components of economic freedom affect returns equally.     

Do exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the trade balance? Evidence from U.S.–Korea commodity trade

Previous studies of the effects of exchange rate changes on Korea’s trade balance have assumed symmetry between currency depreciation and appreciation. In this paper, we distinguish between the two to show that the effects at the industry level are in fact asymmetrical in most industries for Korea’s bilateral trade with the U.S. We employ an auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach using quarterly data for the period 1989–2014 for the 79 3-digit industries in which trade between Korea and the U.S. took place. Overall, our model incorporating differentiated responses for appreciation versus depreciation reveals a more significant impact of the exchange rate on commodity trade between Korea and the U.S. than a more standard model that imposes symmetry.     

Predictors of various facets of sustainability of nations: The role of cultural and economic factors

This study examines the influence of national culture on various facets of a country's sustainability indicators, namely environmental performance, human development, and the avoidance of corruption. At the outset, using exploratory factor analysis from data from 57 countries from the GLOBE cultural practices, we identify three dimensions of culture: performance based culture (PBC), socially supportive culture (SSC) and gender egalitarianism culture (GEC). Then, using hierarchical regression analyses, we explore the role of cultural and economic factors on the various facets of sustainability. Specifically, we find that both PBC and GEC positively influence the environmental performance, even after controlling for wealth of a nation, i.e., GDP. GEC interacts with economic freedom in positively influencing environmental performance. GEC also positively influences human development as does GDP and economic growth rate. Interaction effects are also explored. We finally summarize the implications of the dimensions of culture and economic factors on the sustainability factors, and provide suggestions for future research.     

Exchange rate regimes and FDI in developing countries: A propensity score matching approach

Theory suggests that regimes of relatively fixed exchange rates encourage inward foreign direct investment (FDI) relative to regimes of more flexible exchange rates. We use propensity score matching (PSM) to investigate the relationship between the exchange rate regimes of 70 developing countries and FDI into such countries using de facto regime classifications. We include a large number of variables in the logit equation that estimates the propensity score, the probability of regime choice. We also use general-to-specific modeling to get alternative, parsimonious versions. Based on four matching procedures, the average treatment effects suggest, with overall modest statistical significance, that relatively fixed de facto regimes do encourage FDI compared with relatively floating regimes. In addition, the estimated effects are sometimes economically large.     

Capital depreciation and the underdetermination of rate of return: A unifying perspective

This paper shows that the notion of rate of return is best understood through the lens of the average-internal-rate-of-return (AIRR) model, first introduced in Magni (2010a). It is an NPV-consistent approach based on a coherent definition of rate of return and on the notion of Chisini mean, it is capable of solving the conundrums originated by the rate-of-return notion and represents a unifying theoretical paradigm under which every existing measure of wealth creation can be subsumed. We show that a rate of return is underdetermined by the project’s cash-flow stream; in particular, a unique return function (not a unique rate of return) exists for every project which maps depreciation classes into rates of return. The various shapes a rate of return can take on (internal rate of return, average accounting rate of return, modified internal rate of return, etc.) derive from the (implicit or explicit) selection of different depreciation patterns. To single out the appropriate rate of return for a project, auxiliary assumptions are needed regarding the project’s capital depreciation. This involves value judgment. On one side, this finding opens terrain for a capital valuation theory yet to be developed; on the other side, it triggers the creation of a toolkit of domain-specific and purpose-specific metrics that can be used, jointly or in isolation, for analyzing the economic profitability of a given project. We also show that the AIRR perspective has a high explanatory power that enables connecting seemingly unrelated notions and linking various disciplines such as economics, finance, and accounting. Some guidelines for practitioners are also provided.     

Pricing of the currency risk in the Canadian equity market

Based on a three-factor international capital asset pricing model, we examine whether the world market, the local market and the currency risks are priced in the Canadian equity market. The analysis presented in this paper is based on data collected from 2003 to 2010. As the dataset also includes the period of global financial crisis, we examine the issue of risk pricing in the full sample as well as in before and after global financial crisis periods. Unlike most existing studies, the empirical results presented in this paper are based on (i) the quasi maximum likelihood estimation (QMLE) based multivariate GARCH-in-Mean specification and (ii) the generalized method of moments (GMM) techniques. Our empirical analysis based on weekly data on 58 largest Canadian firms indicates that the currency as well as the local and the world market risks are priced in the Canadian equity market. This result holds for all exchange currency rates proxies and in all sample periods. We find that the price of the world market, the local market and the currency risks is time-varying and the Canadian equity market is partially segmented.     

关于构建外汇管理生态文明、完善外汇征信体系的思考

在推进主体监管模式的过程中,我们试图通过开发外汇管理系统,完善外汇管理法规,梳理办事流程、简化手续等来规范审批事项等外汇管理软硬件以实现监管模式由行为监管转变为主体监管。但系统的进步、法规的完善和流程的规范仍无法消除或减少违规行为的发生。改善外汇管理环境,在管制存在的情况下,建立外汇征信体系,改变外汇管理只罚不奖的监管方式,以增加守法长期收益的方式增加违规的机会成本,形成经济主体自觉自律的遵守规则的外汇管理生态文明才能让微观经济体从本能上消除违规冲动。     

The impact of macro news and central bank communication on emerging European forex markets

We employ a two-stage empirical strategy to analyze the impact of macroeconomic news and central bank communication on the exchange rates of three Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies against the euro. First we estimate the nominal equilibrium exchange rate based on a monetary model. Second, we employ a high-frequency GARCH model to estimate the effects of the news and communication along with the estimated exchange rate misalignment on the exchange rate as well as its volatility. The analysis is performed during the pre-crisis (2004–2007) and crisis (2008–2009) periods. CEE currencies react to macroeconomic news during both periods in an intuitive manner that corresponds to exchange rate-related theories. However, the responsiveness of the currencies to central bank verbal interventions becomes important only during the crisis period.     

Time varying pass-through: Will the yen depreciation help Japan hit the inflation target?

This paper argues that the exchange rate could be a powerful transmission channel of the effects of ongoing “unconventional” monetary policies in Japan. It is shown that exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices, once considered near-extinct, has come back strong in recent years. This is especially true for those items that households purchase frequently. Evidence based on VARs as well as TVP-VARs indicates that a 25% depreciation of the yen would produce a 2% increase in the prices of those items. This could have an additional benefit of raising the public’s expectation about future inflation, as their beliefs are often said to be influenced by their daily observations about prices of those items that they buy frequently.     

Fiscal policy and external adjustment: New evidence

Relatively little empirical evidence exists about countries' external adjustment to changes in fiscal policy and, in particular, to changes in taxes. This paper addresses this question by measuring the effects of tax and government spending shocks on the current account and the real exchange rate in a sample of four industrialized countries. Our analysis is based on a structural vector autoregression in which the interaction of fiscal variables and macroeconomic aggregates is left unrestricted. Identification is instead achieved by exploiting the conditional heteroscedasticity of the structural disturbances. Three main findings emerge: (i) the data provide little support for the twin-deficit hypothesis, (ii) the estimated effects of unexpected tax cuts are generally inconsistent with the predictions of standard economic models, except for the US, and (iii) the puzzling real depreciation triggered by an expansionary public spending shock is substantially larger in magnitude than predicted by traditional identification approaches.