INTERNATIONAL RESERVE MANAGEMENT: A DRIFT‐SWITCHING REFLECTED JUMP‐DIFFUSION MODEL

We study the cost of shocks, that is, jump risk, with respect to reserve management when the reserve process is formulated as a drift‐switching jump diffusion with a reflecting barrier at 0. Inspired by the Brownian drift switching model, our model results in a more realistic dynamic behavior of international reserves than the buffer stock model. The new model can capture both the jump behavior in reserve dynamics and the leptokurtic feature of the increment distribution which has a higher peak and two asymmetric heavier tails than the normal distribution. Through the selection of an initial distribution that reflects certain steady state behaviors, the reserve process becomes a regenerative process. This selection enables us to derive a closed‐form expression for the total expected discounted cost of managing reserves, thus helping us to numerically find management strategies that minimize costs. The numerical results show that shocks at the reserve level have a significant effect on reserve management strategies and that model misspecification can result in nonnegligible additional costs.     

China and international market integration: Evidence from the law of one price in the Middle East and Africa

We model market integration in the Middle East and Africa by analyzing price dispersion and testing the law of one price (LOP) on highly-comparable actual local retail prices of 135 goods and services across 23 countries in the region over the period of 1990–2016. Second-generation panel estimators are applied to four price benchmarks: Regional average, South Africa, China, and US prices. Cross-regional price dispersion diminishes considerably over time up to 2008, particularly for non-tradeables around China price. The test of LOP indicates the percentage of convergent prices is highest in China price benchmark, followed by US, South Africa, and regional average benchmarks. Direct estimation of the convergence speed confirms this order. Overall, the results show evidence of increasing market integration in Middle East and Africa but it appears to be driven by global forces and, especially, the rise of China as a new economic power. The results show that some emerging market economies, such as China, can step up and promote integration while traditional economic powerhouses, such as the USA and UK, disengage from international economic relations.     

Ownership discrimination and private firms financing in China

This study examines the financing/funding of private firms in China. Our results show that private firms are significantly less funded through formal financing channels such as bank loans than state-owned firms, and hence have to resort to alternative financing such as trade credit. Consistent with the theoretical expectation and literature, there is a substitution effect between trade credit and bank loans for private firms, but this effect is much weaker compared to that of state-owned firms. Moreover, while the univariate comparisons indicate that private firms obtain more notes payable than state-owned firms, the multivariate regression analyses show that the relation between bank loan and notes payable is positive and indifferent between private and state-owned firms.     

新时代背景下创建党建引领基层社会治理新模式的探索——以兰州市城关区为例

随着我国社会发展的不断推进与创新,对于执政基础的巩固、在最大限度内保证党的执政能力等均成为使基层党建可以获得良好效果的主要手段,并且使工作在不断的实践探索中获得更好的成效。但是,以党建引领基层社会治理的过程仍然存在众多问题,其中包括形式化严重以及做表面功夫等。因此,如何在新时代的背景下,通过党的全面领导将党与群众紧密地联系在一起,从而确保党建工作可以在基层发挥更强的社会治理职能,已成为基层社会治理模式探索并创新的主要内容。     

Information and Knowledge as Antecedents of Consumer Attitudes and Intentions to Buy and Recommend Fair-Trade Products

The authors propose and empirically test a causal model to understand how the availability of fair-trade information and consumer knowledge about this issue affect consumers’ attitudes and intentions toward fair-trade products. The model is built upon the attitude-behavior paradigm and the premises of agency theory. It is tested through structural equation modeling with a sample of 292 Spanish consumers. The findings are that consumers do not have good knowledge about fair trade and that this is significantly determined by the lack of information about this in the market. It is also observed that consumers’ perceptions about the availability of fair-trade information have negative effects on their concern about this issue and that such information as is available is not effective in reducing consumer skepticism. The research represents an extension of previous fair-trade literature because the role of information and communication in improving consumer attitudes and buying intentions has rarely been explored in the case of ethical products.     

中国零售业自营与联营问题的流通经济学分析

零售业自营与联营之争由来已久，在当前供给侧结构性改革、完善促进消费体制机制以及零售业寻求创新发展的背景下，有必要对这一问题展开进一步的理论探讨。文章结合马克思流通经济理论指出，自营和联营的本质区别在于是商业资本还是产业资本承担商品流通职能，自营和联营并不是非此即彼的互斥关系，但如果零售业完全倚重其中一种模式并在全社会推向极端，则需要反思商业资本和产业资本是否各得其所和高效分工。在中国流通体制变革中，虽然联营模式在特定历史时期帮助众多零售企业渡过生存危机并推进内资零售快速扩张，但发展至今，已呈现零售业普遍联营的情况，使零售业整体面临着制约创新发展的新问题。数字经济为零售业回归自营提供了有利契机，零售企业应充分利用新技术摆脱联营制的路径依赖，依托数字化开展深度自营并全面提升流通效率。     

碳排放交易制度的节能减排路径：效率提升还是结构转型？——来自中国省级数据的准自然实验

以中国2013年以来实行的碳排放交易试点政策作为准自然实验事件，基于2000-2017年中国30个省市的面板数据，运用双重差分法实证检验碳排放交易制度的节能减排效应及影响机制。研究发现，碳排放交易制度有利于实现中国经济“节能”与“减排”的双重目标，并通过了一系列稳健性检验；作用机制检验表明，能源效率提升和能源结构转型都是碳排放交易制度实现节能减排目标的重要路径；能源效率提升在碳排放交易制度实现“节能”和“减排”中分别发挥了10.19%和5.93%的作用，而能源结构转型分别发挥了48.87%和52.95%的作用。这意味着中国碳排放交易制度实现节能减排的主要动力来自能源结构转型，而非能源效率提升。能源结构转型涉及问题更加宏观和深层，这为中国加快推进节能减排进程，特别是完成2030年碳达峰和2060年碳中和的国际承诺提供政策启示。     

Determinants of students’ entrepreneurial intention to compete in a fast-pitch competition

Despite the heightened popularity of entrepreneurship education, there remain open questions regarding best practices in co-curricular programs. Using the theory of planned behavior, the authors examine how students’ intention is shaped to increase the likelihood of participation in entrepreneurship co-curricular programs. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to examine the relation between entrepreneurial identity and entrepreneurial intention theory. They find the popular personality trait, openness, is related to ambition, which reveals the interaction between personal elements (personality/identity) and contextual elements (aspirations to success/intention), a novel finding in the literature. This further illustrates the interconnectedness between the theory of planned behavior and the entrepreneurial event model     

工业体系和民营企业兴起——基于252家中国最大民营制造业企业的经验研究

主流经济学家把改革开放后民营企业的大规模兴起，主要归因为市场经济条件下发挥企业家精神和遵循比较优势的必然结果。但是这无法解释为什么民营企业在兴起之初就广泛和快速地进入到各个工业，尤其是技术和资本密集型工业。基于中国工业史和252家中国最大民营制造业企业创业发展史的历史证据，文章找回"工业体系"这一被主流所忽略的重大历史现象和学术概念，从而首次提出一种理解中国民营企业发展独特性的结构性解释。文章发现：从计划经济时期继承而来的门类齐全和独立完整的工业体系，是解释民营企业创业和发展独特性的关键变量；已有的由国有企业和科研院所组成的工业体系，从市场机会、技术能力和组织资源等方面塑造了民营企业的创业选择和发展路径。所以，中国民营企业的快速发展不是仅凭自由市场就会自动出现的普遍现象，而是在市场条件下充分利用工业体系提供的技术和市场条件才得以出现的特殊现象。     

国家科技创新能力时空差异性评价

科技创新规模扩张和科技创新效率提升是增强国家科技创新能力的两条关键途径。基于现有研究鲜有结合科技创新规模和科技创新效率开展国家科技创新能力评价的现状，采用因子分析法，系统筛选国家科技创新规模影响因素，并结合科技创新效率影响因素，完善国家科技创新能力评价指标体系，通过构建DEA Malmquist指数模型，评价不同时期国家科技创新效率变化指数，以及中国与全球10个国家科技创新能力的时空差异性。研究表明，R&D投入强度、R&D研究人员、专利申请量、科技期刊文章数、高科技产品出口额占制成品出口总额的百分比、科技创新效率是影响国家科技创新能力的关键指标；1991-2014年中国科技创新能力水平呈指数增长态势，有力提升了国家科技实力；全球10个国家科技创新能力水平除日本出现一定波动外，其余九国整体呈小幅递增态势。