Bivariate Survival Models for Coupled Lives

This article presents alternative models for modeling the dependence of the time of deaths of coupled lives and applies these to a data set from a life annuity portfolio. The data indicates a very high positive correlation in the time of deaths between coupled lives. The analysis concludes that a mixed frailty copula model with Gompertz marginals fits the data very well. Another model that fits the data well is based on a generalized Frank copula.     

资源型城市产业发展的路径依赖与产业转型研究——以唐山为例

实施经济转型是资源型城市实现可持续发展的必然选择。本文以唐山市为例,研究了资源型城市经济发展中会出现的各种问题,重点阐述了路径依赖的问题,并对资源型城市的经济转型路径进行了探讨。     

论经济责任的承担方式

文章通过对经济法律责任的分析,确定其法律责任的承担方式,包括民事责任、刑事责任、行政责任和社会经济责任;违反经济法律规定就要承担相应的法律责任。     

Negative default dependence in supplier networks

The financial defaults of suppliers in a supplier network are significant risks and causes of uncertainty for buying firms. Hitherto, it has been largely neglected that default probabilities of suppliers in supplier networks are not independent of each other. We aim to overcome this shortcoming by studying negative supplier default dependencies: situations where a surviving supplier may benefit from the default of another supplier, resulting in a lower default probability. We use empirical data from the automotive supplier industry and copula functions, a method of representing joint distribution functions with particular marginals, to capture the default dependency between automotive suppliers and simulate various scenarios with negative default dependency. We also conduct a comparative static analysis illustrating the significant impact of negative default dependence. Our findings should spur managers to analyze their supplier networks with respect to default dependencies, and to take this phenomenon into consideration when making sourcing decisions.     

Failure to launch? The role of land inequality in transition delays

This paper provides empirical support for one theory of transition delays: initial land inequality. Using a new historical dataset for land inequality (Frankema, 2009) we employ duration analysis to investigate whether higher levels of land inequality lead to longer delays in the extension of primary schooling. Our findings suggest that land inequality is a key determinant of delays in schooling.     

The submission of limit orders or market orders: The role of timing and information in the Reuters D2000-2 system

Recent work in the market microstructure literature suggests that the speed with which orders arrive in the market impacts traders' order submission decisions. In this study we use an asymmetric autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model to empirically investigate the influence on the submission of limit and market orders of changes in the time between the past submissions of different types of orders, changes in the slope of the limit order book, and changes in price uncertainty. We find that the expected time between the arrivals of successive orders in the foreign exchange market depends on the previous type of order submitted and the slope on both sides of the order book. Price uncertainty (volatility) plays a secondary role after accounting for the impact of changes in the slope of the order book. Lastly, we find that there are fundamental changes in the level of information contained in the submission of orders at the opening and closing of markets.     

Product differentiation and duration of US import trade

We examine the extent to which product differentiation affects duration of US import trade relationships. The results are consistent with a matching model of trade formation. Using highly disaggregated product level data we estimate the hazard rate is at least 23% higher for homogeneous goods than for differentiated products. The results are not only highly robust but are often strengthened under alternative specifications. As the smallest relationships are dropped, differences across product types increase. Controlling for potential measurement errors also results in larger differences across product types.     

Retailer-buyer supplier relationships: The Japanese difference

The purpose of this study, which draws data from a national survey of Japanese retail buyers, is to provide insight into how culture influences channel relationships and to suggest how non-Japanese partners can facilitate long-term relationships. Results indicate that Japanese retailer long-term orientation with a supplier is an antecedent to trust, economic dependence and satisfaction with the supplier rather than an outcome of these constructs. This study implies that Japanese retailers are expected to look out for the best interests of their partners, rather than continuously seek new partners, and, further, partners learn to negotiate differences rather than seek dissolution of the relationship.     

市场内部化在我国外资经济发展中的表征研究

本文分析了我国外资经济市场内部化的成因,认为市场内部化是跨国公司全球战略的结果,表征为在我国外商投资企业国际贸易活动的大进大出、生产制造的进口依赖和外资经济当地成分偏低。     

Increasing returns: historiographic issues and path dependence

Writing a history of the analysis of increasing returns in economics is qualitatively different from the usual cumulative history of knowledge, as exemplified by the history of perfectly competitive analysis. The history of increasing returns is much less continuous. The reason for this irregular history lies, in my view, in the analytic nature of the subject. I concentrate on the recent history of the implications of increasing returns for path dependence in economic development. Foreshadowed by Veblen (1915) the topic was made explicit by Paul David in some theoretical analyses of topics in economic history (1971, 1975) and then by subsequent papers by David and by Brian Arthur in the 1980s. Contemporaneously, Farrell, Katz, Saloner, and Shapiro came to parallel conclusions in a very specific industrial organization context marked by network externalities.