资源密集地区区域创新能力挤出效应研究

基于我国省级层面2001—2017年数据，通过系统GMM估计方法和脉冲响应函数，分析在区域经济发展中区域创新能力和资源依赖程度的关系。结果显示：资源依赖程度高会导致区域创新能力下降，存在挤出效应，同时区域创新能力低会使资源依赖程度提升，存在双向作用关系。二者极易形成恶性循环，若资源密集地区继续采取传统粗放式发展，将难以提升其区域创新能力，进而被迫锁定于传统路径依赖，难以实现经济社会可持续高质量发展。     

Investigating a three-way interaction of manufacturer control,retail control and dependence on salesforce performance. Does the role of frontline employees matters ?

Dependence and retailer control on manufacturer's salesforce imply several challenges in retail channels. This research addresses how they affect the relationship between manufacturer control and salesforce performance due to the high level of salesforce investment. We conduct a moderated-moderation analysis.We investigate the moderating roles of retailer control and dependence on the relationship between manufacturer control and salesforce performance. To take into account the importance of the store frontline employee, we next studied the influence of his perception of the salesforce on the sales control systems in retailing. First, our results show that salesforce performance is influenced directly by manufacturer process control and, retail control and dependence moderate this relationship in two-way and three-way interactions. The salesforce subject to process control by manufacturer improves his performance under strong retailer outcome control while the manufacturer is in a low relative dependence. Second, employee perception of the salespeople mediates the link between manufacturer process and retailer outcome controls. We test our model in two studies and theoretically integrate retailer control, dependence, and employee perception of the salesforce, in the sales control literature. In the end, we provide practical implications to further improve salesforce performance and employee perception of the salespeople and future research suggestions.     

Organic certification,export market access and the impacts of policy: Bayesian estimation of avocado smallholder “times‐to‐organic certification” in Michoacán Mexico

This study analyzes organic adoption decisions using a rich set of time‐to‐organic durations collected from avocado small‐holders in Michoacán Mexico. We derive robust, intrasample predictions about the profiles of entry and exit within the conventional‐versus‐organic complex and we explore the sensitivity of these predictions to choice of functional form. The dynamic nature of the sample allows us to make retrospective predictions and we establish, precisely, the profile of organic entry had the respondents been availed optimal amounts of adoption‐restraining resources. A fundamental problem in the dynamic adoption literature, hitherto unrecognized, is discussed and consequent extensions are suggested.     

贸易关系持续时间的研究进展

双边贸易中贸易零值的大量存在引发了学者们对贸易持续时间影响因素的特别关注。贸易关系的持续时间从一个新视角研究了贸易的动态行为,是贸易增长中集约边际的重要组成部分,较长的贸易持续时间可以促进贸易的持续平稳发展。本文从贸易关系持续时间的特征事实、理论解释、计量模型的选取及影响因素分析等四个方面对相关文献进行了梳理,对比和评析了相关研究的结论与方法,在此基础上得出了启示及未来研究方向。     

非生产性努力、政府规制与私营经济发展

本文认为,地方政府的规制水平不同,使得不同地区私营企业家的非生产性努力程度有差异;在企业家能够自由流动的条件下,规制条件好的地区会对企业家产生集聚效应,促使地区私营经济快速发展;私营企业家的集聚使私营经济的力量得到壮大,更能影响政府的政策和规制条件,因此经济朝着优均衡的状态发展;如果地区私营经济向地方政府寻租,造成偏私性资源配置,那么私营经济发展就会走向劣均衡。     

惯性困局：固定汇率制度改革之难题

历史观察发现,尽管均衡汇率随着宏观经济变量不断变化,汇率制度的演变却是十分缓慢的。本文利用持续期模型研究布雷顿森林体系结束至2004年的跨国数据,发现固定汇率制度具有很强的惯性特征,一国退出固定汇率制度的概率随着时间的推移不断下降。进一步,这种效应对于发展中国家较之发达国家更强。因此,在经济转型过程中,即便灵活的浮动汇率制度具备更高的效率,长期存在的固定汇率安排也不会轻易被放弃。汇率制度改革同其他领域的制度改革一样,只是经济环境成熟还远远不够,更需要一些特别地契机。     

当前对外开放的现实困境——兼论对外经济发展战略面临的挑战

中国加入WTO后,对外开放已进入到一个新阶段,中国长期实行的出口导向战略、外资依赖战略面临挑战。国际货币环境高度不稳定将对中国经济构成重大战略威胁。中国在全球产业转移下出现生产体系中心国与国际货币体系错配,人民币没有取得与经济总量、贸易总量相对称的应有的国际货币地位。对外贸易和外资投资的扩张与宏观经济运行目标的冲突日益明显。     

Dependence structures and risk spillover in China’s credit bond market: A copula and CoVaR approach

This study uses a dynamic copula model of dependence to investigate risk spillovers in China’s credit bond market between the bank and corporate sectors for a range of maturities from one week to 30 years. Using daily data on credit spreads for the period December 28, 2009 to June 2, 2017, the empirical results show that credit risk spillover is low and relatively stable for medium-term bonds, but higher and more variable for short- and long-term bonds. The results also show that credit risk spillover increased after 2014 with financial market reforms that involved interest rate liberalization and a loosening of government guarantees on corporate debt.     

Getting stuck,falling behind or moving forward: Rural livelihood movements and persistence in Nepal

Research on household livelihood dynamics is central to rural poverty reduction. In this paper, we adopt a three-wave panel dataset to explore the persistence of and transitions in household livelihoods in three districts of Nepal using duration and dynamic probit models. The results demonstrate that the livelihood strategies of rural households are dynamic: approximately 16 per cent of the sample households transitioned up to high-remunerative livelihood strategies, 10 per cent of the households shifted down to either low- or medium-remunerative livelihood strategies, and 69 per cent remained trapped in low-remunerative livelihood strategies. The major upward transition occurred from medium-remunerative strategies to high-remunerative strategies (14 per cent). Overall, 70 per cent of the households persisted in one of the three livelihood strategies, and the remaining 30 per cent changed their strategy at least once. This dynamic is associated with the households’ duration in a particular livelihood strategy and the various characteristics of households and household heads. Understanding livelihood movement, livelihood persistence and the associated covariates and targeting the poor on this basis is crucial to combating rural poverty and dismantling poverty traps. To this end, the present study suggests (i) strengthening physical and financial asset endowments to address low-remunerative strategies, (ii) improving infrastructure connectivity, particularly in remote and inaccessible areas, (iii) insuring against shocks, iv) enhancing opportunities for generating remittances and enabling petty trade, and (v) supporting the establishment of business ventures.     

Flexible dependence modeling of operational risk losses and its impact on total capital requirements

Operational risk data, when available, are usually scarce, heavy-tailed and possibly dependent. In this work, we introduce a model that captures such real-world characteristics and explicitly deals with heterogeneous pairwise and tail dependence of losses. By considering flexible families of copulas, we can easily move beyond modeling bivariate dependence among losses and estimate the total risk capital for the seven- and eight-dimensional distributions of event types and business lines. Using real-world data, we then evaluate the impact of realistic dependence modeling on estimating the total regulatory capital, which turns out to be up to 38% smaller than what the standard Basel approach would prescribe.