Spatial planning as policy integration: The need for an evolutionary perspective. Lessons from Uzbekistan

We start out from the premise of a continued need for policy integration to address both economic and environmental issues in society, arguing that spatial planning is a privileged site to locate such endeavor. While policy integration in planning can acquire many forms, we understand those forms as ways to manage interdependencies between organizations. Spatial planning can contribute to the integration of policies in comprehensive visions, but a planning system, in the sense of a network of organizations, does not escape from the evolutionary rigidity introduced by interdependence and path-dependence. In a study of the evolutionary path of spatial governance in Uzbekistan, a former Soviet republic, we investigated the shifting patterns of policy integration that affected the organization of space. Policy integration in planning, it is found, is path-dependent, worked out positively and negatively, and necessarily relied on informal coordination mechanisms. Thus, a planning system striving to manage interdependence has to be highly reflexive, to understand the extent to which its transformation options are constrained by history and by present linkages between organizations.     

A Recursive Scheme for Perpetuities with Random Positive Interest Rates. II: The Impenetrable Wall

In some former contributions, the authors investigated actuarial quantities with stochastic interest rates. In a first model, the randomness is modelled by means of an ordinary Wiener process, and as a consequence negative interest rates are possible. A second model provides a tool to avoid these negative interest rates, which can be necessary in particular situations. This paper wants to present an alternative solution to the problem of negative interest rates. This new model will be implemented to the case of an annuity certain and of a perpetuity.     

The decision to ‘bid for business’: Municipal behavior in granting property tax abatements

We investigate the timing of local economic development incentive offers by estimating duration models of the time to adoption of the first manufacturing property tax abatement offered by a municipal government. The effects of municipal characteristics, incentive prevalence measures, and fiscal stress indicators on the duration of non-abatement regimes are investigated using data for 112 municipalities in metropolitan Detroit during 1974–1992. Median household income and the local property tax price of local public services are found to affect the hazard rates. Most importantly, there is evidence of positive duration dependence, or an emulation effect, with first-time abatement offers.     

Semi- and Non-parametric Bayesian Analysis of Duration Models with Dirichlet Priors: A Survey

The object of this paper is to review the main results obtained in semi- and non-parametric Bayesian analysis of duration models. Standard nonparametric Bayesian models for independent and identically distributed observations are reviewed in line with Ferguson's pioneering papers. Recent results on the characterization of Dirichlet processes and on nonparametric treatment of censoring and of heterogeneity in the context of mixtures of Dirichlet processes are also discussed. The final section considers a Bayesian semiparametric version of the proportional hazards model.     

中国巨灾保险制度:政府抑或市场主导？——基于动态博弈的路径演化分析

本文采用信息经济学的路径演化博弈方法,构建巨灾保险制度演化发展的动态博弈模型,并以此分析巨灾保险制度的演化发展规律。分析结果显示:在制度构建初期,政府主导下的制度框架体系和运行规律能够带来较好的综合效益,政府和市场能够实现初始均衡;但是,如果政府长期主导巨灾保险制度,将扭曲市场机制的作用,进而降低巨灾保险制度及其体系的运行效率。本文建议,政府应保持对巨灾市场的适度干预,加大巨灾市场主体的培育力度,并提高政府对市场主体激励机制的有效性。     

风险依赖、一致性风险度量与投资组合——基于Mean-Copula-CVaR的投资组合研究

本文把风险依赖、一致性风险度量与投资组合纳入到一个分析框架中,结合Coupla-CVaR模型和Mean-var投资组合理论构建Mean-Copula-CVaR的投资组合模型,能有效同时解决风险度量中的一致性和依赖性关系。采用券商指数、银行指数和保险指数实证分析线性依赖和复杂依赖(Copula依赖)情况下金融机构资产配置的差异性和风险度量的充分性,研究结果表明,纳入Copula函数能够更为稳健和准确地预测投资组合的CVaR。然而,本文没有检验出不同形式Copula之间的差异具有显著性。本文的政策含义在于,忽视复杂风险依赖结构可能会造成风险低估,从而影响资产配置的有效性。     

Science parks: seedbeds of innovation? A duration analysis of firms’ patenting activity

This article investigates the role of Science Parks (SPs) as seedbeds of innovation. It aims to verify if and to what extent firms’ innovative performance is affected by relocating inside a SP. The analysis is structured in the form of a duration model that holds patenting as a repeated and event-dependent phenomenon and accounts for the persistence of innovative activities and the cumulativeness of knowledge. Estimates are based on a conditional risk-set model. The study relies on an original database regarding Finnish SPs: 252 firms that in the year 2002 were located in the Parks and the firms’ lifetime patenting activity, over a 33-year-period. We find support for the existence of spillovers and for the positive role of incubators over those firms joining SPs when very young.

技术跨越：环境友好型技术发展中的路径依赖与路径创造

路径依赖与路径创造在实现技术跨越的过程中是相伴生的。通过探讨环境友好型技术在实现技术跨越中存在的路径依赖现象,分析环境友好型技术的开发如何实现路径创造,指出了环境友好型技术在实现技术跨越中要注意的一些问题。     

技术依赖假说与实际工资的变化：理论描述与实证研究

针对我国实际工资水平较低的问题,理论界从比较优势假说、经济结构假说和收入分配假说不同的分析角度,分别给出了不同的解释。而技术依赖假说则强调,实际工资的变化与技术进步之间存在着密切的依赖关系：当技术进步偏向利用资本、节约劳动时,实际工资呈下降趋势;当技术进步偏向利用劳动、节约资本时,实际工资呈上升趋势。对我国实际工资水平变化的实证研究也为上述解释提供了支持。     

网络环境下的企业自主创新能力研究:基于权力依赖关系的视角

对企业自主创新的内涵理解,学术界目前尚存在较大争议,特别是在基于全球化视野的网络环境下,企业的自主创新活动具有新的特征与内涵。研究认为,从自主创新及"自主性"的涵义出发,网络环境下的自主创新能力应该从企业技术创新活动及其结果所形成的、与外部组织间在技术场域的权力依赖关系来理解。并在此基础上,提出了从权力依赖关系研究自主创新能力提升策略的建议。