One (program) for all or all (programs) for one: Evaluation of the employment program opportunity for all of the federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Using administrative data from tax records and public employment services, this paper examines whether the largest wage subsidy program deployed in 2014 in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Opportunity for All, was effective at improving employment outcomes. Given the non-experimental design, the paper relies on propensity score matching estimators. It contributes to the literature on impact evaluations of active labor market policies (ALMPs) by exploiting detailed work histories of jobseekers to identify the control group. In the preferred specification, the program was effective in increasing employment among program participants relative to the control by 13 % 12 months after completing the subsidized period. However, the results are highly sensitive to the assumption of the starting date of the job spell in the control group, which carries information about previous work history. When changing the assumptions about the starting date of the subsidized job spell of the control group, the results remain positive in the short run, but turn out to be either larger or even negative for the medium run. In all cases, heterogeneity analysis reveals that the program is most beneficial for jobseekers of about 40 years of age and older, and for low-skilled workers.     

系统性风险与企业财务危机预警——基于前沿机器学习的新视角

本文采用Logit回归模型以及随机森林模型、梯度提升模型等前沿机器学习方法,深入考察系统性风险指标对我国企业财务危机的预测能力。结果表明,系统性风险对中下游企业的财务危机具有显著的预测能力,而基于因子分析构建的系统性风险指标,结合随机森林模型可取得更好的预测效果。本文进一步区分财务危机的不同成因并发现,基于随机森林模型和Logit回归模型的预测框架能够对我国大多数财务危机事件进行有效预警。在此基础上,本文对我国上市企业监管提出相关建议,从而为完善金融风险处置机制提供一定参考。     

ESG,risk, and (tail) dependence

While environmental, social, and governance (ESG) trading activity has been a distinctive feature of financial markets, the debate if ESG scores can also convey information regarding a company’s riskiness remains open. Regulatory authorities, such as the European Banking Authority (EBA), have acknowledged that ESG factors can contribute to risk. Therefore, it is important to model such risk dependencies and quantify what part of a company’s riskiness can be attributed to the ESG scores. This paper aims to question whether ESG scores can be used to provide information on (tail) riskiness. By analyzing the (tail) dependence structure of companies with a range of ESG scores, that is within an ESG rating class, using high-dimensional vine copula modeling, we are able to show that risk can also depend on and be directly associated with a specific ESG rating class. Empirical findings on real-world data show positive not negligible ESG risks determined by ESG scores, especially during the 2008 crisis.     

Spillovers and directional predictability between international energy commodities and their implications for optimal portfolio and hedging

This study sheds a new light on the dependence and the directional predictability between eight major energy price returns, using the Cross-Quantilogram (CQ) and the Partial CQ (PCQ) analysis. The energy prices cover the time series for the U.S. natural gas and seven internationally traded crude oil types. The results reveal a significant directional predictability running from most of energy commodities returns to the OPEC basket and the very light Tapis crude oil returns. However, the quantile predictability in both directions is enabled only for the relations between the light Brent and the light WTI, and between the OPEC basket and the Malaysian Tapis. The time-varying predictability analysis reveals that there is a significant upper quantile dependence between these international energy commodities. Finally, we find that the TAPIS can be a good hedging vehicle for other energy markets. These findings may be instructive for both policymakers (in terms of financial stability) and market participants (in terms of performance).     

环境不确定情境下组织韧性影响路径、作用机制与应对策略研究

韧性作为探究组织—环境互动机理的方法，有助于企业在逆境中化危为机、借机成势。基于过程视角，打开环境不确定情境下组织韧性响应的“黑箱”,构建“暴露期(激活韧性)—发展期(调动韧性)—恢复期(发挥韧性)”研究框架。研究发现：环境作为企业的信息源和资源池，不确定性通过信息认知和资源依赖两条路径影响组织韧性；为应对环境不确定性，组织韧性通过探测机制和缓冲机制降低信息模糊，进而突破资源瓶颈。因此，应综合判断企业外部环境状况和组织自身禀赋，选择适应、更新和突破3种组织韧性应对策略。     

Estimating the duration of competitive advantage from emerging technology adoption

This paper proposes a method for estimating the expected duration of competitive advantage from emerging technology adoption for the average adopting firm. The proposed method relies on publicly available data (e.g., web search interest, news articles, book titles, and firm disclosures) and integrates elements from diffusion of innovation theory, hype cycles, and resource-based view of competitive advantage. We validate this method by applying it to two mature technologies, namely ERP and cloud computing, for which we come up with estimates consistent with findings from prior studies. Leveraging our method, researchers and professionals can use readily available data to make their own estimations. Such estimates can inform researchers in answering research questions related to duration of competitive advantage from technology adoption. They can inform professionals in making better business decisions such as forecasting the net present value of an investment in an emerging technology.     

广州高新技术产业发展与“路径依赖”的转换

高新技术产业已发展成为广州重要的支柱产业,但由于产业起步的“路径依赖”局限,目前广州高新技术产业发展的瓶颈制约已十分明显,要进一步推动高新技术产业加快发展,必须依靠引入内生增长动力因子——科技原创因素,建立独立的科技研发能力,逐步改变原来的“路径依赖”,形成“技术引进”和“自主原创”并重的内外源结合型的发展新模式。