开放条件下中国货币与经济关联度变动原因实证研究

本文运用动态条件相关(DCC)方法估计中国各层次货币与实体经济的关联度。研究发现,1994年前,关联度始终在低位波动,之后大幅提高,总体呈上升趋势。通过在模型中引入金融深化度和经济开放度,本文从不同的侧面解释了货币与经济关联度变动的原因。虽然金融深化度和经济开放度对关联度的影响程度随货币层次的提高而增强,但作用方向却不完全相同;金融深化度越高,经济开放度越低,关联度越强,这表明金融深化理论与中国国情相适应。这对于改革开放具有较强的现实意义。政府通过优先发展金融,深化金融体制改革,能够提高货币对经济增长的效能,促进经济结构的转型和经济持续增长。     

不可再生保险资源约束下的保险业最优增长研究

风险是未来致损事件的不确定性,风险没有过去和存量概念,具有类似时间的一维性。因此,一定的社会政治经济、法律制度和文化习俗环境下,一定时间和地域空间内的具体风险载体可能存在的可保风险是有限的,是不可再生的耗竭性社会经济资源。通过某一社会经济系统在某时刻的保险产业资源投入、保险单份数和保险赔偿金的数理模型构造,考察相关政策变量的变动,分析了在保险资源不可再生约束下的保险业可持续发展的最优增长规律。研究表明在不可再生保险资源约束下,单位保单保费收入增长的充要条件是客观存在的,通过相关可控政策变量的调整,保险业是可实现最优增长的。另外,各国保险增长路径模式的差异只不过是保险经济活动专业化分工在一定制度文化背景下的演化适应与市场博弈而形成的路径不同而已。如果缺乏保险发展所需要的制度激励机制和文化背景,想要通过保险增长的优化达到促进经济增长则是很难的。     

关系信息进程及其影响因素的实证研究

如何提升企业客户关系管理效率是现代企业亟待解决的关键问题。论文构建了顾客关系导向、以顾客为中心的管理系统和关系信息进程之间的概念模型,并运用来自中国银行业的调查数据实证检验了三者之间的关系,实证研究结果表明,顾客关系导向和以顾客为中心的管理系统是关系信息进程的两类关键驱动要素,都对关系信息进程产生显著的积极效应。     

汇率冲击和行业就业调整

根据Campa和Goldberg的贸易结构理论,我们对国内15个行业就业和汇率间的关系进行了实证研究。结果发现大多数行业在汇率冲击后的反应和理论一致,即人民币升值会抑制其就业增长,而贬值有利于其就业扩张,尤其是对高开放度和劳动密集型行业影响显著。但由于其他行业就业汇率弹性并不显著,因此降低了整体就业汇率弹性的显著性。此外,由于我国各行业开放度高于美国,因此就业汇率弹性也较大。     

贸易与环境问题的南北关系研究综述

国际贸易的发展与环境问题的全球化有着极为密切的联系,而国际贸易中的环境问题又往往和南北问题交织在一起。南北方在贸易与环境问题上的理论视角存在很大差异。如南北方在贸易环境价值观、资源保护与环境剥削、国内外政策协调等方面都有分歧。本文通过对国内外贸易与环境问题有关文献的梳理、总结和评述了南北方在贸易与环境问题中的分歧和主要冲突．深入剖析了产生这些分歧的主客观原因。     

地方政府公共投资与区域经济增长的差异性分析

文章采用全国31个省、自治区和直辖市1995~2008年的面板数据,构建动态面板数据模型,考察了地方政府公共投资对区域经济增长的影响。研究表明,1995年以来我国地方政府公共投资总体上推动了区域经济增长,但不同公共投资项目的拉动效应在区域间存在着较大差异。     

Dynamic lot sizing problem with continuous-time Markovian production cost

This paper develops a polynomial algorithm for obtaining dynamic economic lot sizes in a single product multiperiod production system with the objective of minimizing total production and inventory costs over T periods. It is assumed that production costs are linear, inventory costs are concave, setup costs are zero and backlogging is not permitted in all periods. Moreover, the unit production cost is a stochastic variable, which is evolved according to a continuous-time Markov process over the planning horizon. The model is formulated as a stochastic dynamic programming (DP) optimization with the state variable being unit production cost. Then, it is solved using the backward dynamic programming approach. To justify the application of the proposed model, two practical cases are presented.     

广东省城市流强度与结构的动态变化分析

依据城市流强度分析方法,对2005年和2010年广东省21个地级市的区位熵、外向功能量、城市流强度、及其结构进行测算和分析。结果表明:①两个时段内广东省各城市的城市流强度逐步增强,但城市间及城市内部产业部门分配上差距较大;②城市间经济联系不够紧密,以广州、深圳为中心呈现核心-外围的空间结构;③各城市总体经济实力和城市综合服务能力之间尚不协调,多数城市总体经济实力较低;④2010年广东省的东翼、西翼和北部山区出现了主导型城市,小范围的区域经济发展的潜力巨大。据此提出了提高广东省城市流强度的对策,服务于广东省的经济发展。     

Innovation in start-ups: Ideas filling the void or ideas devoid of resources and capabilities?

We investigate how access to different types of resources affects the success of entrepreneurial start-up firms at early stages of development in small isolated economies by studying 12 start-ups based in New Zealand. We find that successful commercialization of innovations depends on the availability of complementary assets, and that capability-based resources, especially dynamic capabilities, have a greater impact on competitive advantage of start-ups than other intangible and tangible assets. For the start-ups in our study, alliances with partners are particularly important, and so the ability to form alliances is a key capability. Successful start-ups leverage their available resources to attract alliance partners in order to access necessary complementary resources. The start-ups in our study clearly demonstrated the ability to attract partners locally but struggled to do so internationally, thereby limiting their growth potential.     

Dynamic capabilities and entrepreneurial management in large organizations: Toward a theory of the (entrepreneurial) firm

Mainstream economic theory has generally excluded consideration of the role of managers, which has, in turn, impaired its ability to explain resource allocation by, and heterogeneity among, firms. In the real world, managers are called on to fill entrepreneurial and leadership roles: sensing opportunities, developing and implementing viable business models, building capabilities, and guiding the organization through transformations. These entrepreneurial management tasks are part of the organization׳s capabilities, which also encompass embedded organizational processes that can be slow to change. An understanding of entrepreneurial management and organizational capabilities will contribute to more realistic economic models and a better understanding by policy makers of industrial dynamics and the requirements of innovation.