Dynamic advertising and pricing with constant demand elasticities

In this paper we analyze a stochastic dynamic advertising and pricing model with isoelastic demand. The state space is discrete, time is continuous and the planing horizon is allowed to be finite or infinite. A dynamic version of the Dorfman–Steiner identity will be derived. Explicit expressions of the optimal advertising and pricing policies, of the value function and of the optimal advertising expenditures will be given. The general results will be used to analyze the case of impatient customers. Furthermore, particular time inhomogeneous models and homogeneous ones with and without discounting will be examined. We will study the social efficiency of a monopolist's optimal policies and the consequences of specific subsidies. From a buyer's perspective, our analysis reveals that waiting – when looking at (immediate) expected prices – is never profitable should two or more units be available. But we will also prove that the sequence of average sales prices is monotone decreasing. Moreover, the techniques applied to solve the discrete stochastic advertising and pricing problem will be used to solve a related deterministic control problem with continuous state space.     

Stability or restructuring? Macroeconomic dynamics under soft budget constraint problems

In this paper, we examine how a decrease in firms’ productivity or the degree of financial market imperfection affects macroeconomic dynamics when the bank has an incentive to misallocate its credit. We develop a model that incorporates a soft budget constraint into a simplified version of Kiyotaki and Moore (1997) environment and show that soft budget constraint problems may arise if the economy becomes less productive or the financial market is less developed. Because of this shift in firms’ productivity, not only do more bad projects survive, but profitable new entrants are crowded out, so that, as in transition economies and Japan in the 1990s, the recession is not only prolonged, but also becomes more severe in the long term.     

基于DCC模型的上市银行系统风险实证研究

本文应用DCC多元GARCH模型分析上市银行股票价格的动态相关性,并以此作为银行整体风险的度量监测指标,在模型的构建中考虑了系统风险的时变特征。结果表明,相关系数的大小和动态变化能够对银行系统性风险起到一定的监测和预警作用。本次金融危机过后,银行间动态相关水平一直处于高位,表明投资者对未来银行资产质量和其潜在风险仍然存在担忧。     

Production technologies in stochastic continuous time models

Properties of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models can be revealed by either using numerical solutions or qualitative analysis. Very precise and intuition-building results are obtained by working with models which provide closed-form solutions. Closed-form solutions are known for a large class of models some of which, however, have some undesirable features such as potentially negative output. This paper offers closed-form solutions for models which are just as tractable but do not suffer from these shortcomings.     

A look into the factor model black box: Publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP

We derive forecast weights and uncertainty measures for assessing the roles of individual series in a dynamic factor model (DFM) for forecasting the euro area GDP from monthly indicators. The use of the Kalman smoother allows us to deal with publication lags when calculating the above measures. We find that surveys and financial data contain important information for the GDP forecasts beyond the monthly real activity measures. However, this is discovered only if their more timely publication is taken into account properly. Differences in publication lags play a very important role and should be considered in forecast evaluation.     

Booking horizon forecasting with dynamic updating: A case study of hotel reservation data

A highly accurate demand forecast is fundamental to the success of every revenue management model. As is often required in both practice and theory, we aim to forecast the accumulated booking curve, as well as the number of reservations expected for each day in the booking horizon. To reduce the dimensionality of this problem, we apply singular value decomposition to the historical booking profiles. The forecast of the remaining part of the booking horizon is dynamically adjusted to the earlier observations using the penalized least squares and historical proportion methods. Our proposed updating procedure considers the correlation and dynamics of bookings both within the booking horizon and between successive product instances. The approach is tested on real hotel reservation data and shows a significant improvement in forecast accuracy.     

非等间隔动态面板数据模型：估计方法与应用实例

非等间隔动态面板数据模型由于相邻两期观测之间的时间长度不尽相同使得传统动态面板数据模型的估计方法失效,本文提出使用非线性最小二乘、最短距离以及它们的一步估计量对该模型进行估计,证明了这四个估计量的一致性和渐进正态性,同时借助蒙特卡洛模拟的方法验证了它们在有限样本中的估计精度,并且进一步使用所提出的估计量讨论了以往文献由于缺乏相应的估计方法而没有被研究或者充分讨论的问题,得到了一些新的结论。     

浅析建筑工程造价的动态管理与控制

建筑工程造价管理是现代工程建设施工企业成本控制的基础、是实现投资建设企业成本管理的重点、是建筑工程施工企业经济效益与长期盈利能力构建的关键。针对现代建筑工程施工企业工程造价管理的现状,现代建筑工程施工企业应以动态工程造价管理理论指导工程造价管理工作,以此实现工程造价管理的最终目的。现就现代建筑工程造价动态管理与控制进行了简要的论述与分析,以此为工程建设施工企业提供更多的参考资料。     

基于动态数据驱动的半导体生产线调度仿真

针对半导体晶圆生产的特点,研究了基于动态数据驱动的半导体生产调度仿真系统。系统通过实时采集半导体生产线上的动态数据监控生产过程,并且根据仿真数据和生产数据的差异,及时识别扰动,驱动系统重调度仿真。系统通过混合知识表示形成基于半导体生产调度因素、调度策略和调度方法的知识网络,运用JESS实现动态调度策略实时推理。并且利用多Agent强大的模型描述能力和分布式问题求解能力提高仿真的实时性。仿真结果表明,系统具有很好的实时性和动态适应性,能够保持生产的稳定运行。     

大庆油田突发事件应急指挥管理系统建设探索

本文探讨利用油田现有的各种资源,搭建应急指挥平台,从而最大限度地降低大庆油田公司各类突发事件的发生概率,减少发生突发事件时所造成的经济损失和社会影响,确保油田生产生活秩序的平稳。