费孝通"珠江模式"的转型路向研究

从1988年至2003年的15年间,费孝通共赴广东11次对珠三角地区及其辐射区进行追踪调查,对珠三角的发展倾注了巨大的热情和心血。他认为珠三角要保证将来持续发展的活力和后劲,其路向是:一是深化香港与珠三角的经济关系,二是协调珠三角中心城市的功能定位,三是增强珠江模式的自主创新能力,四是建设共同繁荣的“泛珠三角”经济共同体。这些思想观点不仅启发了理论工作者,而且具有十分重要的决策价值。     

Ruin Problems for Phase-Type(2) Risk Processes

In this paper we consider a risk process in which claim inter-arrival times have a phase-type(2) distribution, a distribution with a density satisfying a second order linear differential equation. We consider some ruin related problems. In particular, we consider the compound geometric representation of the infinite time survival probability, as well as the (defective) distributions of the surplus immediately prior to ruin and of the deficit at ruin. We also consider explicit solutions for the infinite time ruin probability in the case where the individual claim amount distribution is phase-type.     

皖港贸易对皖服务业影响的实证研究

建立了VAR模型试图分析这皖港之间的进出口贸易对安徽服务业发展的影响类型及影响程度,联合检验的结果是皖港进出口贸易是皖服务业发展的原因,单独检验的结果认为安徽从香港的出口贸易是安徽服务业的发展的一个内在原因;脉冲分析认为,安徽对香港的出口贸易对安徽服务业的发展有着显著的、积极而持久的影响,而安徽从香港的进口贸易对安徽服务业的影响相对不够显著;方差分解的结果与脉冲图像分解的结论一致。最后提出一些政策建议和措施。     

Model uncertainty and the effect of shall-issue right-to-carry laws on crime

In this paper, we explore the role of model uncertainty in explaining the different findings in the literature regarding the effect of shall-issue right-to-carry concealed weapons laws on crime. In particular, we systematically examine how different modeling assumptions affect the results. We find little support for some widely used assumptions in the literature (e.g., population weights), but find that allowing for the effect of the law to be heterogeneous across both counties and over time is important for explaining the observed patterns of crime. In terms of model uncertainty, we find that there is substantial variation in the estimated effects for each model across all dimensions of the model space. This suggests that one should be cautious in using the results from any particular model to inform policy decisions.     

Assessing time-varying stock market integration in Economic and Monetary Union for normal and crisis periods

In this paper, we examine the stock market integration process amongst 17 Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries from January 2002 to June 2013 over a normal period as well as for the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and Eurozone Debt Crisis (EDC) periods. We classify the economies in three groups (A, B and C) based on their GDP to examine whether the economic size influences financial integration. Seven indicators are used for the purpose, namely, beta convergence, sigma convergence, variance ratio, asymmetric DCC, dynamic cointegration, market synchronisation measure and common components approach. The results suggest that large-sized EMU economies (termed as Group A) exhibit strong stock market integration. Moderate integration is observed for middle-sized EMU economies with old membership (termed as Group B). Small-sized economies (termed as Group C) economies seemed to be least integrated within the EMU stock market system. The findings further suggest presence of contagion effects as one moves from normal to crisis periods, which are specifically stronger for more integrated economies of Group A. We recommend institutional, regulatory and other policy reforms for Group B and especially Group C to achieve higher level of integration.     

城市化进程中的社区建设模式探索——以长沙市咸嘉新村为例

城市化进程中的社区建设问题是当前一大热点问题，其模式选择也备受学术界关注。本文在分析国内外社区建设模式优劣的基础上，以长沙市咸嘉新村为实证研究，围绕社区建设主体之间的利益分配和相互作用展开研究，通过构建社区建设的三方“博弈模型”，探索出了“G—D—P联合建设”的新模式，以期为我国城市化进程中的新型社区的建设与完善，旧有社区和城中村的改造提供可行性方案。     

The theory of repurchase decision-making (TRD): Identifying the critical factors in the post-purchase decision-making process

A theory particularly designed to explain re-buying decision formation is lacking. This research developed and tested a theory of repurchase decision-making (TRD) that more comprehensively explains individuals’ post-purchase decision-making processes. Two studies were conducted in a full-service restaurant setting for the development of this theory. Specifically, important factors generating the repurchasing intention were identified through an exploratory qualitative approach in Study 1. In this qualitative approach, a new set of belief items and salient referents in a re-buying decision-making process were also identified. The proposed model merging the model of goal-directed behavior (MGB) with identified factors and belief constructs from Study 1 were tested in the second study. Our results demonstrated that incremental amounts of total variance in the re-buying decision were explained by the TRD. Newly integrated constructs in combination with the original variables in the MGB were found to play a critical role in the re-buying decision-making process. The implications of this study are presented and discussed.     

Criteria for the Stochastic Ordering of Random Sums,with Actuarial Applications

It is shown that vectors ( S M 1 , … , S Mn ) and ( S' M'1 , …, S' M'n ) of random sums of positive random variables are stochastically ordered by upper orthant dependence, lower orthant dependence, concordance or by the supermodular ordering whenever their corresponding random numbers of terms ( M 1 , … , M n ) and ( M' 1 , … , M' n ) are themselves ordered in this fashion. Actuarial applications of these results are given to different dependence structures for the collective risk model with several classes of business.     

全球化背景下中国经济发展上位模式

20世纪70年代后,在新的经济全球化的浪潮中,中国为了适应国际经济发展新趋势,进行了大刀阔斧的改革。中国依据本国国情和所处的历史发展阶段,坚持以马克思主义和邓小平理论为指导,探索出了自己独特的经济发展模式,建立了具有中国特色的社会主义国家,使得我国的经济、政治、文化、体育等各领域都有长足的发展,人民的社会福利有了根本性的保障。同时,在此次金融危机中,中国利用各种宏观调控政策率先走出了危机的低谷,这些都凸显出中国经济模式的优越性。