我国专业市场国际化的基本模式和发展路径

在中国经济日益国际化的背景下,我国专业市场呈现出国际化发展趋势。本文以专业市场国际竞争力和中国经济国际化程度作为分析我国专业市场国际化的基本变量,将专业市场经营归纳为四种模式,认为内向国际化经营是目前我国专业市场国际化基本模式。借鉴义乌中国小商品城的国际化典型经验,提出了“从立足本地,到全国经营,再到内向国际化,最终实现跨出国门外向国际化”的专业市场国际化路径和三个发展阶段。最后建议,根据波特“钻石”模型框架,来构筑我国专业市场的国际竞争力,推动国际化的发展。     

LOGISTICS INNOVATION: A CUSTOMER VALUE‐ORIENTED SOCIAL PROCESS

This paper reports on a qualitative, grounded theory research project conducted in the United States, Sweden, and The United Kingdom designed to explore logistics innovation as perceived by leaders of logistics service provider firms and logistics business functions within product focused firms. Analysis of 33 depth interviews conducted within seven organizations revealed activities that reflect multiple aspects of being innovative, including: (1) setting a stage for innovation; (2) identifying clues to shifts in what customers value; (3) negotiating, clarifying, and reflecting upon insights; and (4) managing inter‐organizational learning.     

基于计算机数据分析的品牌价格平衡模型

随着计算机网络与通信技术的发展，信息技术在市场预测模型中的应用越来越广泛。基于计算机数据分析的品牌价格平衡模型（Brand Price Trade-Off），成为国外目前最为成功的一种在模拟竞争环境下测试品牌价格策略的高级研究技术。     

Optimal bank asset and liability management with financial futures

This paper presents a model for optimal bank asset and liability management with financial futures. This model is a multiperiod linear programming model based on Markowitz portfolio theory. Given the bank's initial position, its economic forecasts, and the constraints under which it operates, the model can help a bank's senior executives determine the current and expected future balance sheet composition and financial futures position which will minimize the bank's operating risks and which will meet the bank's expected profits goal with the minimum possible profits risk. By parametrically varying the expected profits goal, the model will generate the set of risk-return efficient decisions. Bankers need then examine only the set of efficient decisions to choose their optimal solution. A simplified example is used to illustrate the application of our model and to demonstrate that banks that use financial futures in asset and liability management can obtain better results than banks that do not use financial futures.     

Saving under uncertainty: A bivariate non-expected utility approach

We adopt the multivariate non-expected utility approach proposed by Yaari [1986] to provide a characterization of the comparative statics effects of greater risk aversion and of mean-preserving increases in risk on saving and borrowing in the presence of income and interest rate risk.We show that in Yaari's model, it is possible to extend the applicability of the Diamond and Stiglitz [1974] and Kihlstrom and Mirman [1974] (DSKM) single-crossing property to establish a relationship between greater risk aversion and saving (or borrowing) on the basis of the individual's ordinal preferences as long as the two risks are independent. We also demonstrate that the comparative statics effects of a joint mean-preserving increase in random income and interest rate on saving and borrowing can be determined by an extension of the DSKM single-crossing property.     

城镇职工基本养老保险金需求预测模型及应用--以西安市为例

本文根据我国基本养老保险制度从“现收现付制”向“部分积累制”转轨过程中，“新人”、“中人”、“老人”共存的国情，在界定城镇职工基本养老保险金需求概念的基础上，分析了影响我国城镇职工基本养老保险金需求的9个主要参数，构建了城镇职工基本养老保险金需求的预测模型，并应用模型对西安市城镇职工基本养老保险金需求进行了预测，以期探索城镇职工基本养老保险金需求的预测方法。     

论卓越经营模式与6西格玛的互补、兼容和整合

本文基于对质量管理发展历史的回顾，分析了卓越经营模式和6西格玛这两个当代质量管理前沿理论的内涵和特点，论述了二者之间的互补和兼容关系，提出了企业如何进行整合推进的策略建议。     

On the selection of forecasting models

It is standard in applied work to select forecasting models by ranking candidate models by their prediction mean squared error (PMSE) in simulated out-of-sample (SOOS) forecasts. Alternatively, forecast models may be selected using information criteria (IC). We compare the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of these methods in terms of their ability to mimimize the true out-of-sample PMSE, allowing for possible misspecification of the forecast models under consideration. We show that under suitable conditions the IC method will be consistent for the best approximating model among the candidate models. In contrast, under standard assumptions the SOOS method, whether based on recursive or rolling regressions, will select overparameterized models with positive probability, resulting in excessive finite-sample PMSEs.     

一种新的基于贝叶斯频谱估计的传输线长度测量方法

根据双臂电桥原理搭建出实验电路进行数据采集,再应用贝叶斯频谱估计算法对测得的数据进行分析,得出反射频率周期,然后根据反射原理推算出人工传输线的长度。由于在检测方法和分析方法上的改进,在传输线长度的测量精度上获得了很好的效果。在实验中,根据先验知识和理论得出一个特定的模型方程;在实际应用中如果能够找到一个合适的模型方程,那么就可以运用贝叶斯频谱估计方法进行分析,因此贝叶斯频谱估计算法有着非常广泛的实用价值。     

金融企业的服务品牌内化研究

服务品牌内化研究是当前服务品牌研究领域的热门话题。金融企业通过构建基于机制设计下的服务品牌内化模型,能够有效地确定目标市场,进行品牌定位,实现品牌承诺和价值主张,激发员工参与行为,培养客户的忠诚度,实现获利战略目标。论文在研究前人成果的基础上,创新性的提出了"三维客户价值体验公式"、服务品牌构建路径、服务品牌内化"六力"假设模型、基于机制设计理论的服务品牌内化模型,为下一步的品牌内化研究提供了初步的理论模型,并对中国金融企业,以及其他企业服务品牌建设有着较高的实践意义。