股权二元结构下的股利政策--一种新的代理成本理论

本文基于股权二元结构建立了新的代理成本理论，发现并度量了分配现金股利的“再分配效应”——导致价值在流通股与非流通股之间转移，说明分配现金股利可能是大股东对流通股股东的掠夺行为。再分配效应揭示了股权二元结构的缺陷，有助于解释股利分配的一些实证现象，为现金股利的“利益输送”假说提供了理论基础。本文提出的配股一分红策略可以实现非流通股间接上市的目的。     

Restricted forecasting with VAR models: An analysis of a test for joint compatibility between restrictions and forecasts

A restricted forecasting compatibility test for Vector Autoregressive Error Correction models is analyzed in this work. It is shown that a variance–covariance matrix associated with the restrictions can be used to cancel out model dynamics and interactions between restrictions. This allows us to interpret the joint compatibility test as a composition of the corresponding single restriction compatibility tests. These tests are useful for appreciating the contribution of each and every restriction to the joint compatibility between the whole set of restrictions and the unrestricted forecasts. An estimated process adjustment for the test is derived and the resulting feasible joint compatibility test turns out to have better performance than the original one. An empirical illustration of the usefulness of the proposed test makes use of Mexican macroeconomic data and the targets proposed by the Mexican Government for the year 2003.     

INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY LITIGATION ACTIVITY IN THE USA

Abstract.  Brand names or trademarks carry incredible economic power and prestige. There is increasing recognition by world bodies that intellectual property (IP), whether manifested in patents, trademarks, copyrights or trade secrets, is highly valuable and must be protected through robust IP enforcement. The USA is an interesting natural laboratory as patent, trademark and copyright litigation battles have been raging domestically for some time. The paper discusses the four main forms of IP assets, the legal remedies that are available to enforce the property rights inherent in each type of IP asset, the basic damages theory relating to each form of IP, and how damages may be calculated when each type of asset is presumed to be infringed. The increased recognition of the value of IP has led to stronger enforcement of IP protection, an increase in IP litigation, and growing policy actions that are focused on how that protection should be manifested. An empirical analysis of how the IP litigation activity in the USA has changed over time is also presented.     

港台地区关于中国大陆对外开放政策研究述要

本文对港台地区关于中国大陆对外开放政策的研究成果进行了简要的介绍,主要内容包括大陆对外开放的动因、特点、成就、问题、资金引进、技术引进以及对中国台湾地区的影响;同时也对中国港台学者对于对外开放政策的争议进行了介绍。     

Use of mathematical models in automotive transportation policy analysis: A case study

Mathematical models are used widely in automotive transportation policy analysis. The limitations, benefits, and uses of a case-study model, the Sweeney Passenger Car Gasoline Demand Model, were examined. It was found that because of users' lack of awareness of the model's characteristics, the model has sometimes been misused, although the misuse appears to have had no major negative policy impact. However, the model use has had some impact on major automotive/energy policy decisions of the 1970s. Involvement by the model author in applications of the model contributed to effective use of the model in the policy process.     

Nutrition and GNP: A comparison of problems in Thailand and the Philippines

The relationship between GNP and nutritional status between countries shows a high correlation. This study of two countries with the same GNP (Thailand and Philippines) investigated their use of equal resources and the impact on nutritional status. Malnutrition is more prevalent in the Philippines than Thailand despite an extensive national nutrition programme in the Philippines, better medical and educational services and safer water supplies. The most important underlying economic factor is not income distribution but rather the cost of living, particularly for basic needs. Finally, it is concluded that although GNP is closely related to nutritional status between countries, the longitudinal correlations within a country are much weaker.     

Key Issues for Monetary Policy: An ECB View

The European single currency, the euro, has become a visible and successful token of Europeans drive towards unification. It was born in an era in which high-speed structural change tests the validity of economic models and defies searches for standard policy recipes. Like all central banks, the European Central Bank (ECB) must deal with uncertainty that derives not only from the timely identification of important disturbances but also imperfect knowledge of how such disturbances affect the economy. These problems are compounded by the likelihood that important and poorly understood structural changes accompany cyclical forces. Unification of Europe has brought about significant structural change, which has been amplified by the recent enlargement of the European Union. Under these conditions, independence of the ECB, a mandate of price stability, and clear rules of fiscal governance have been essential for the credibility of the euro. Thus, the ECB has quantified its target of price stability in a mediumterm framework. Like the US Federal Reserve, the ECBs policy framework is comprehensive, and its decisions are transparent. Unlike the Fed, however, the ECB has an explicit, quantitative definition of price stability and performs a detailed and explicit crosscheck between its economic analysis and detailed monetary analysis. These differences notwithstanding, the similarities between the ECB and the Fed are more important.JEL Classification E58     

Dynamics of food policy formulation in the USA

Examination of the dynamics of food policy formulation in the USA reveals a series of intriguing contrasts. As an example of pluralist decision making, it is unequalled in the sheer number and variety of actors and interests which it encompasses. This article analyses four principal generic elements of the food policy process: its ideological underpinnings; its policy settings; its substantive components; and, its foreign-domestic linkages. The profound changes which have occurred in the Washington political climate are also considered in terms of their implications for food-related policies in both the domestic and international arenas.     

基于金融形势指数对我国货币政策效果非线性的实证研究

本文基于总需求方程缩减式构建包含利率、汇率、资产价格以及货币供给因素具有动态权重的金融形势指数FCI,将其作为信息变量纳入到线性和非线性泰勒规则中进行实证分析,结果表明拓展的前瞻性泰勒规则更能描述我国利率行为,利率能很好的反应金融形势而对产出和通胀反应不足。以通货膨胀率为转换变量对我国货币政策效果进行检验和估计表明泰勒规则是非线性的,存在LSR1模型的非线性形式,利率对通胀的反应是非对称的。对非线性进行拓展性研究表明当通胀达到一定程度时,利率和FCI指数才具有稳定关系。     

我国商业银行信贷投放亲周期性实证研究及缓释对策

为有效地规避和防范银行信贷亲周期性及其对宏观经济周期性波动和货币政策调控的负面影响,本文从外部监管和商业银行内部管理提出了缓释我国商业银行信贷投放的亲周期效应的具体对策.如结合我国国情修改并积极实施新资本协议,加强银监会和央行的沟通与协调,构建有差异的资本充足率监管框架,建立反周期资本充足率监管框架和引入动态风险拨备机制等.