Estimation of tourism demand by multivariable regression analysis Evidence from Kenya

Between 1963 and 1982, tourism was one of the top three domestic exports of Kenya. Knowledge of the variables which significantly Influence Kenyan tourism demand could help tourism policy makers in planning growth strategies. The results of this study indicate that multivariable regression analysis has limited usefulness in identifying the significant factors which influence tourists' decisions. Data problems and resulting multicollinearity cause unsuitable results in one case, while model specification appears to be a problem in another. The author concludes that quantitative studies should be supplemented by qualitative analysis in order for Kenyan policymakers to make optimal decisions.     

信用认知对农户借贷还款行为的影响研究——基于河南省的实证分析

信用认知是影响农户拖欠借款的重要因素,并且认知程度越深,拖欠贷款的可能性越低.家庭外出务工人数、家庭公共费用缴纳情况、区位年平均家庭收入显著地影响农户拖欠借款的行为,而户主年龄及其受教育水平、纯收入及借贷利率对农户拖欠借款行为没有产生显著的影响.     

我国上市公司财务危机预警系统研究

通过将Logistic回归分析法和因子分析法进行有效地组合,对我国上市公司的财务危机状况进行了研究。利用SPSS软件并以24个财务比率指标和5个因子变量为基础,建立了上市公司危机预警模型,并检验了其预测的准确率,结果表明判断准确率达到89.5%。同时对财务危机预警模型的两类错误成本进行了分析。     

中国创业板上市公司盈利能力的因素分析——基于分位数回归的实证研究

影响上市公司盈利能力的因素有很多,不同的分位数水平下各因素对盈利能力的影响可能存在差异。传统的回归模型只能描述因变量的条件均值受自变量的影响,而分位数回归模型能够依据因变量的条件分位数对自变量进行回归,从而更加精确地描述自变量对因变量的影响。选取截至2013年6月30日的355家创业板上市公司的截面数据,从分位数回归的角度研究了不同分位数水平下各因素对公司盈利能力的影响,并且加入了地区虚拟变量,研究了区位因素与盈利能力的关系。     

Willingness to pay: Who are the cheap talkers?

The purpose of this paper is to determine who is willing to pay (WTP) for a greener event by applying a Contingent Valuation (CV) approach together with an experimental design. To identify the cheap talkers a survey was conducted at the Wacky Wine Festival in South Africa, were 474 respondents participated. Using a Heckman two-step approach, the results confirmed that the decision to contribute depends on behavioural and motivational factors, while the amount is income-dependent. The extent of cheap talking is significant, with a 50% deviation in stated and revealed behaviour. Besides cheap talkers, another category is identified, namely “ethicals”, who contribute their voucher to the tree planting project without indicating that they are willing to pay.     

A theoretical framework of electronic word-of-mouth against the backdrop of social networking websites

This study proposed and tested a theoretical framework that explains electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM) against the backdrop of social networking websites (SNWs), which have gained substantial popularity among travelers. In particular, a United States (US) nationwide online survey was conducted and nine hypotheses were tested. The findings suggest that willingness to share knowledge and switching costs are positively related to eWOM communication. In addition, customer value (utilitarian) has positive relationships with willingness to share knowledge, perceived security, and switching cost, while customer value (hedonic) has positive relationships with willingness to share knowledge and switching costs. Last but not least, the findings indicate that perceived security does negatively impact eWOM. In light of the major findings, the article sets forth strategic implications for travel-related social networking websites.     

主题公园游客满意度曲线研究——以深圳欢乐谷为例

游客量直接决定主题公园的经营绩效,游客满意度是影响游客量的关键要素之一。本文首先通过对深圳华侨城三大主题公园的预调研,构建了主题公园游客满意度曲线模型;然后以深圳欢乐谷为例,通过回归分析,对主题公园的游客满意度曲线进行了拟合检验,发现主题公园的游客满意度曲线表现为倒U形。为了使主题公园经营者能够有效地利用倒U形模型,本文将游客满意度曲线划分为5个区间,针对每个区间给出了提高游客满意度水平的策略,为主题公园稳定游客量提供了理论依据。     

Unobserved firm heterogeneity and the size-exports nexus: Evidence from German panel data

This paper starts from the stylized fact that firm size and exporting tends to be positively related. Using large sets of establishment panel data for three different industries from official statistics, evidence is presented that the familiar picture of an export/sales ratio that increases (at a decreasing rate) with firm size vanishes if unobserved firm heterogeneity is controlled for in a fixed-effects fractional logit regression model. This finding is well in line with the fact that many small firms are “hidden export champions.” JEL no. F10, D21, L60     

黑龙江省国有林区森林资源动态变化及影响因素分析

通过搜集1976—2005年黑龙江省森林资源的连续清查数据,分析了近30年来森工林区国有森林资源动态变化状况,并在归纳总结大量国内外学者所认同的影响森林资源变化的因素理论基础之上,结合黑龙江省的实际情况选取了有林地面积、人均国民生产总值、受灾森林面积、营林投资、天然林保护工程等对森林资源变化有显著影响的科学合理的指标,继而运用回归模型进行定量分析,并提出保持森林资源可持续增长应采取的对策。     

The correlation coefficient and problems of inference in recreation research

Correlation analysis frequently has been used for the investigation of leisure research questions. This paper illustrates the problem of “unequal weighting of cases” which is present in the use of correlation analysis. It further illustrates how this problem can mislead researchers when they make substantive inferences about leisure.