化石能源耗竭与气候变化约束下的经济低碳转型

本文构建了一个包含产品生产、技术研发、新能源生产和温室气体减排四个部门的内生增长模型;并运用最优控制理论,研究了在化石能源耗竭与气候变化约束下,经济低碳转型中的一系列关键变量的长期行为方式和中短期平衡增长路径;进而刻画了劳动力在各部门间的配置和转移、化石能源价格、排放空间价格对能源结构、碳强度、消费、单位劳动碳减排量、单位劳动产出等变量的影响机制;同时揭示了运用一些政策工具实现经济低碳转型的时机选择。     

我国能源强度的最优规模实证研究

我国能源现状与经济增长的高能源依赖性表明．经济增长需要最优能源强度。最优能源强度及其存在性，可通过实证得出，实际能源强度与最优值的差距也可进行测算。研究结果表明，近年来我国实际能源强度高于最优值，处于不断上升的趋势，最终会实现能源强度最优规模。     

General equilibrium impact of an energy-saving policy in the public sector

We analyse a disregarded environmental policy instrument: a switch in government expenditure away from energy (or other natural resources) and toward a composite good which includes energy-saving expenditure. We first develop two variants of an analytical general equilibrium model. A composite good is produced with constant returns to scale, and energy is imported or produced domestically with diminishing returns, yielding a differential rent to its owners. The government purchases energy and composite goods from private firms. Such a policy unambiguously increases employment. It also raises private consumption and welfare under two conditions: (i) it is not too costly and (ii) the initial share of the resource is smaller in public spending than in private consumption, or the difference is small enough. We then run numerically a model featuring both importation and domestic production of energy (oil, gas and electricity), for the OECD as a whole. Simulations show that employment, welfare and private consumption rise. We provide magnitudes for different parameter values. Earlier versions of this paper have benefited from conference participants at the European Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, International Society for Ecological Economics World Congress, CIRED seminar and EUREQua environmental economics seminar. We especially thank Michèle Sadoun and two anonymous referees. The usual disclaimer applies.     

能源消费省区配置及节能潜力分析——以河北省为例

目前,由于存在着能源供需矛盾加剧、能源利用效率低下、环境污染日益严重等问题,河北省面临严峻的节能降耗挑战,开展节能减排工作是河北省当务之急,而节能潜力的研究与测算是制定河北省具有预见性和针对性的能源发展政策实现节能减排目标的必要前提.本文在能源消费省区配置分析的基础上,分别测算出河北省绝对趋同务件下、相对趋同下的节能潜力,并得出相应结论:绝对趋同条件下河北省总体能源效率在全国范围内水平明显偏低,总体节能潜力达到63.05％;在东部地区及与河北省相邻省市相对趋同条件下,河北省能源效率水平也都处于落后水平,具有相当的综合节能潜力.     

A new economics approach to modelling policies to achieve global 2020 targets for climate stabilisation

This paper explores a Post Keynesian, ‘new economics’ approach to climate policy, assessing the opportunities for investment in accelerated decarbonisation of the global economy to 2020 following the Great Recession of 2008–2009. The risks associated with business-as-usual growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere suggest that avoiding dangerous climate change will require that the world’s energy-economy system is transformed through switching to low-carbon technologies and lifestyles. Governments have agreed a target to hold the increase in temperatures above pre-industrial levels to at most 2°C and have offered reductions by 2020 in GHG emissions or the carbon-intensity of GDP. The effects of policies proposed to achieve pathways to 2020 towards this target are assessed using E3MG, an Energy-Environment-Economy (E3) Model at the Global level. E3MG is an annual simulation econometric model, estimated for 20 world regions over 1972–2006 adopting a new economics approach. Additional low-GHG investment of some 0.7% of GDP, with carbon pricing and other policies, is sufficient to achieve a pathway consistent with a medium chance of achieving the long-term target. GDP is above reference levels because decarbonisation reduces world oil prices and increases investment. Employment is some 0.9% above reference levels by 2020 and public finances are almost unaffected.     

拜泉县农业持续发展的生态经济系统分析

通过对黑龙江拜泉县农业生态经济系统进行以能流分析、物流分析和价值流分析为主要内容的系统诊断,提出该县通过生态经济综合建设,实现农业持续发展的方向与对策,并证明它是促进农村经济持续发展的一种有效方法。     

Energy taxation in Southern Europe: The case of Portugal

We investigate whether or not the imposition of a common EC energy-tax will penalize more the poorer Southern European economies and if this will harm convergence at the EC level. We start by surveying briefly the existing studies and empirical evidence. Then we exploit the results obtained when using the macroeconometric HERMES models to simulate the introduction of an energy-tax. Unfortunately, as we only have HERMES results for one Southern European economy, Portugal, our conclusions are limited. Finally, we investigate convergence in Europe and the effects of energy taxation on convergence. We conclude that energy taxation will harm growth all over the EC, penalizing more one of the less developed countries, Portugal, and having most probably adverse effects on convergence.This paper was prepared for presentation at the Conference Energy Tax in Europe organized jointly by the SEO-University of Amsterdam and the DG XII of the CEC and held in Amsterdam on 13th December 1991. I would like to thank the participants in the Conference and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. Of course, the usual disclaimer applies.     

中国地区经济增长与能源消费强度差异分析

本文假设我国西部与东部地区的能源消费强度差异是西部与东部地区人均GDP差异的函数,然后同其他回归变量一起检验这两个变量之间的关系,并通过使用面板数据计量经济学模型进行实证估计。本文的研究结论为:第一,总体而言,西部与东部地区的人均GDP差异存在收敛,随着人均GDP的收敛,西部与东部地区的能源消费强度差异也是收敛的,但收敛的速度慢于人均GDP的收敛速度。第二,不同西部省份在经济增长过程中的能源使用效率是收敛还是发散存在差异。本文的政策含义是:政府在制定区域经济发展战略时,要鼓励和引导各地区充分利用能源禀赋以及能源利用效率方面的差异进行合作,走能源节约型的可持续的区域平衡增长道路。     

The causal relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth: evidence from the G7 countries

This article re-examines the nature of the causality between natural gas consumption and economic growth in G7 countries over the period from 1965 to 2011. We employ the Granger causality procedure proposed by Emirmahmutoglu and Kose (2011) which takes into account cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity across countries. Our overall empirical results support the neutrality hypothesis for the panel while the individual country results confirm the same result with the exception of the case of UK, where the conservation hypothesis is confirmed, showing that GDP causes natural gas consumption in the country. These results make policies that promote the consumption of natural gas risk-free with regard to their effects to the economic growth and development levels.     

新常态下中国节能服务产业发展新方向:与PPP模式的集成研究

为了实现新常态下节能服务产业转型,探索中国节能服务产业发展新方向,以集成论为基础理论框架,首先通过分析节能服务产业与PPP模式集成所需要的集成单元、集成条件和集成界面,证明了二者集成的可行性,解决了能否集成的问题;其次,在集成单元和集成界面确定的基础上,设计出节能服务产业与PPP模式之间的集成模式,解决了怎样集成的问题;最后,识别出影响节能服务产业与PPP模式所构成的集成体发展的集成环境,解决了哪些因素会影响集成体发展的问题。