商业银行表外业务风险管理及信息披露

商业银行的表外业务一直以低风险、低成本、高利润成为各国银行业竞争的焦点。我国银行业如何在金融市场逐步放开的情况下 ,在同国外银行的竞争中立于不败之地 ,表外业务的发展状况、风险管理程度及信息披露的完善程度将发挥非常重要的作用。     

财政赤字的风险损益分析

财政赤字风险将引起收入分配不公 ,降低资本的效率和减少储蓄 ,危害物价稳定 ,引起各经济主体对赤字的路径依赖并损害经济增长的质量和可持续性。但财政赤字也会带来经济增长和经济结构优化的风险收益。评价和选择财政赤字政策时 ,必须比较赤字的风险收益和风险损失 ,以获取财政赤字风险净收益最大化。     

QFII制与中国证券市场

随着中国融入世界经济的前进步伐，我国证券市场将迟早向国际资本开放。在目前人民币没有实现自由兑换及外汇管制的条件下，作为过渡措施的QFII制度将引入中国证券市场。本就QFII制度作了初步介绍，对该制度在中国证券市场推行的意义、引入条件及其可能带来的风险进行了初步的分析。     

The minimum variance hedge and the bankruptcy risk of the firm

In this paper, we analyze the influence of hedging with forward contracts on the firm's probability of bankruptcy (POB). The minimization of this probability can serve as a substitute for the maximization of shareholders' wealth. It is shown that the popular minimum variance hedge is generally neither necessary nor sufficient for the minimization of the firm's POB. Moreover, our model suggests a correction of the widespread view that a reduction in the variance of the future value of the firm is inevitably accompanied by a reduction in its default risk. We derive an analytical solution for the variance-minimizing hedge ratio of a firm exposed to both input and output price uncertainty that takes into account the issue of correlation. Based on this solution, we provide a graphical analysis to prove our claim that there is a fundamental difference between hedging policies focused on bankruptcy risk and those following conventional wisdom even if positive correlation constitutes a “natural” hedge.     

反商业贿赂与政府采购机制的完善

政府采购已成为财政支出的重要组成部分.巨大的利润空间给政府采购带来了商业贿赂的风险.运用成本-收益理论、政府规制俘获理论和公平理论,分析其产生的根源及可能带来的后果,可采取相应措施消除政府采购中商业贿赂因子的现实途径.     

不完全竞争、交易效率和证券风险

本文提出了一种崭新的理论观点———不完全竞争的市场结构是证券风险的一个重要来源,并利用市场数据进行了实证分析。此外,本文还发现不完全竞争的市场结构会通过影响买卖双方的交易策略而降低市场的交易效率。     

2006年石油价格展望

本文对影响2006年石油价格的因素做了系统分析。认为2006年形成油价风险的主要动因已从需求的波动转向供给的波动;2006年油价将由于供求的脆弱平衡维持高位运行的格局,并且,由于供给链中潜在的危机,油价波动性将会非常大;但在全球经济增速下降、石油需求增长放缓、石油生产国家和公司仍然在努力满足市场需求、炼油瓶颈有望缓和的大背景下,油价在2006年按2005年可比价格计不会大幅上升,不会对全球经济产生重大负面影响。     

美国证券法对衍生交易市场风险披露的监管及借鉴——以SEC“305规则”体制的监管要求为视角

在以市场风险披露为基础的衍生交易监管政策下,SEC的“305规则”体制由定量、定性信息披露要求与前瞻性信息披露的安全港规则有机构成。我国应当借鉴先进的风险监管规则,构建创新的衍生工具市场风险披露法律框架,并解决好创新规则实施过程中的成本-收益权衡问题、收益波动性问题。     

The Future of Financial Reporting: Insights from Research

Research offers insights that, if heeded and built upon, could improve financial reporting, thereby contributing to a more prosperous society. In particular, research suggests improvement could stem from greater use of fair value; a performance statement designed to reveal the information embedded in changes in fair value; better information to help investors assess the value of intangible assets; more specific information about risk and uncertainty; information that is unbiased, rather than conservative; acceptance of a degree of earnings management together with a determination of how much earnings management is acceptable; and a financial reporting package designed to convey information users need, which presumably is broader than today's financial statements.     

Expected exponential utility maximization of insurers with a Linear Gaussian stochastic factor model

In this paper, we consider the problem of optimal investment by an insurer. The wealth of the insurer is described by a Cramér–Lundberg process. The insurer invests in a market consisting of a bank account and m risky assets. The mean returns and volatilities of the risky assets depend linearly on economic factors that are formulated as the solutions of linear stochastic differential equations. Moreover, the insurer preferences are exponential. With this setting, a Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation that is derived via a dynamic programming approach has an explicit solution found by solving the matrix Riccati equation. Hence, the optimal strategy can be constructed explicitly. Finally, we present some numerical results related to the value function and the ruin probability using the optimal strategy.