Commodity price cycles and heterogeneous speculators: a STAR–GARCH model

We propose an empirical commodity market model with heterogeneous speculators. While the power of trend-extrapolating chartists is constant over time, the symmetric impact of stabilizing fundamentalists adjusts endogenously according to market circumstances: Using monthly data for various commodities such as cotton, sugar or zinc, our STAR–GARCH model indicates that their influence positively depends on the distance between the commodity price and its long-run equilibrium value. Fundamentalists seem to become more and more convinced that mean reversion will set in as the mispricing enlarges. Commodity price cycles may thus emerge due to the nonlinear interplay between different trader types. The paper represents the authors’ personal opinion and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Deutsche Bundesbank.     

Government as a discriminating monopolist in the financial market: the case of China

We show that the many unusual features of China’s financial markets are consistent with a government choosing regulations to maximize a standard type of social welfare function. Under certain conditions, these regulations are equivalent to imposing explicit taxes on business and interest income, yet should be much easier to enforce. The observed implicit tax rates are broadly in line with those observed in other countries. The theory also forecasts, however, that China will face increasing incentives over time to shift to explicit taxes.     

常德市旅游资源开发研究

本文首先扼要介绍了常德市发展旅游业的基本状况,然后分析了影响常德市旅游资源开发的有利和不利因素,最后从提高知名度,走出阴影区、突出水乡特色、选择开发重点及资源保护几个方面阐述旅游资源开发的具体措施并设计了旅游路线。     

经理股票期权与会计信息失真

本文分析了经理股票期权的激励原理,对它的理论假设提出了质疑,从而揭示了这一激励机制产生偏差的根本原因,并从本源上探寻了经理股票期权与会计信息失真的联系。     

如何保护中小投资者的利益

我国证券市场繁荣发展的基石是有效保护投资者的利益,而其中最主要的是保护中小投资者的利益,股票市场的中小投资者地位处于劣势,加之我国股票市场的不规范,企业筹资理念的错位,使其利益经常遭受侵犯,文章结合一些案例,对侵犯中小投资者利益的手法进行了剖析,并提出了相应的保护中小投资者利益的若干措施。     

Illicit drug markets and economic irregularities

Markets for illicit drugs present an interesting case study for economics, combining non-standard characteristics such as addiction and product illegality. One response has been to argue the generality of economic principles by suggesting that they apply even in the extreme case of markets for addictive substances, e.g., by showing that demand for illicit goods is responsive to price [1] [Reframing health behavior change with behavioral economics. Hillsdale, NJ:Lawrence Earlbaum Associates; 2000. p. 89-111.] and even by modeling addiction as rational [2] [J Political Econ 1988;96:675-700]. This paper sketches examples of an alternative reaction, focusing on idiosyncrasies of drug markets that might plausibly create counter-intuitive effects, including supply curves that slope downward because of enforcement swamping and/or a good serving as the only available store of wealth for its producer, demand reduction programs that increase demand, and consumption by “jugglers” possibly increasing rather than decreasing as prices rise. This analysis yields non-obvious policy recommendations; for example, source country control programs should concentrate on growing regions with a healthy banking sector.     

中国股市对经济增长作用的实证检验

关于金融体系和经济增长之间关系的争论由来已久。本文在分析国外关于这一争论的研究成果的基础上,对中国的股票市场发展与经济增长之间的关系做了一系列实证检验,考察了金融体系的一个组成部分———股票市场与经济增长的关系。检验结果说明,中国股市发展与经济增长之间的相关性不高,回归结果也不能说明中国股市发展会推动经济增长。     

广东省高速公路服务区拓展第三方物流的SWOT分析

本文应用SWOT分析方法，对广东省高速公路服务区功能拓展进行了探讨，研究表明：高速公路服务区借助网络的逐步完善、现代物流快速发展等，具备了拓展第三方物流的可行性。借此抛砖引玉，为高速公路服务区管理者、经营者对服务区未来发展提供参考。     

岩溶地区的水土流失及治理

滇、黔、桂的岩溶是我国最集中的分布区域。该地区的水土流失，不仅使农业生态环境迅速恶化，而且制约着农村经济的发展。本文就该地区水土流失的现状、危害，对其成因及治理对策作了探讨。     

我国农村饮用水安全现状、问题及政府管制

农村饮用水安全是关系农村居民生活质量和生命安全的大问题。农村饮用水安全具有公共性,需要政府进行管理。我国农村饮用水安全问题主要体现在水质差、水量不足、取水不便、不能保证供给等方面。为此,需要政府投入和民间筹资多方支持,同时政府应加大宣传力度,加强农村配套设施建设,以消除农村饮用水存在的安全问题和隐患。