投资者异质性与证券市场定价——理论模型与中国的经验证据

本文从投资者异质性的客观现实出发,通过对投资者二维视角的交叉分类与相关行为的探讨,提出了一种按交易特点与行为依据的新的分类方案,即将投资者分为套利交易者、价格预期交易者和量能变动交易者三类。在此基础上分别建立了各类投资者的需求函数,通过对证券市场供求函数的讨论,利用均衡分析方法构建了基于投资者异质性的证券市场定价模型,并以我国证券市场1999-2011年的月度数据为样本进行了实证分析。实证结果表明:我国证券市场价格主要由价格预期交易者的诱导性策略行为与量能变动交易者的羊群行为决定,套利交易者的套利行为对市场价格没有显著的影响,证券市场扩容也未对市场价格的形成产生系统性冲击。     

The timing of exchange rate collapse

Recent episodes of exchange rate collapse have renewed interest in models of speculative attacks. These episodes have been considered by some observers to be inconsistent with “fundamentals” models of attack since there was no prolonged period of policy misalignment and declining reserves, as required by such models. This paper develops a fundamentals model in which collapse is instantaneous at the time of unexpected policy change and/or a change in the expectations of future policy, even for a reserve abundant country.     

我国货币政策传导机制有效性研究:条件与结论

对几种货币政策传导机制的利用是否有效,取决于市场失衡的程度与开放的程度以及经济发展不同时期的机遇。目前我国新兴市场资金流动与各市场间的联系主要受资产价格传导机制作用的引导,而不是利率传导。人民币升值带来的机遇并非仅发生在商品市场,更发生在资本市场,汇率传导机制的作用虽然影响了出口,但是目前却更有利于资本输出下的海外收购与兼并,从而降低了通货膨胀传递下商品市场的投资成本。     

Corporate governance and incidences of listing suspension by the JSE Securities Exchange of South Africa: An empirical analysis

We examine the association between corporate governance structures and incidences of listing suspension from the JSE Securities Exchange of South Africa. Using a matched-pairs research design, we compare 81 firms suspended between 1999 and 2005 to an equal number of control firms matched in terms of time, size and industry. Employing a conditional logistic model, we find that the likelihood of suspension is higher in firms with a smaller proportion of non-executive directors, without an audit committee, and with greater block-share ownership and higher gearing (i.e. leverage). Further analysis splitting block-share ownership into institutional and non-institutional investors provides mixed results. While we find a positive association between suspension and non-institutional investors, we observe no association with institutional investors. No association is detected for board size, role duality, directors' share ownership, auditor quality and return on assets. Given the paucity of studies examining listing suspension from stock exchanges and corporate governance mechanisms, these findings contribute to the literature. Additionally, the dearth of research on corporate governance in developing countries suggests that our findings have important implications for policy makers in these countries as they endeavor to improve corporate governance.     

新兴市场经济国家通货膨胀与汇率制度选择

本文利用23个新兴市场经济国家20年间的面板数据,对汇率制度和通货膨胀的关系进行实证研究,对我国汇率改革实践进行了考察。从我国的实际情况看,汇率波动的幅度越大则通胀率均值越大,2005年实行管理浮动以来我国通胀率处于明显的上升趋势。我国应该限制人民币升值幅度,发挥汇率的"名义驻锚"的作用,以此遏制通胀的进一步发展。     

Japanese FDI into U.S. service industries: Exchange rate changes and services tradability

Using the implications of the model of investment under uncertainty, this paper provides a systematic examination of the FDI–exchange rate relationship with respect to services taking into account the degree of tradability across services. Services have mainly been addressed in the literature as a sensitivity test by industry using aggregated service data identified as “nonmanufacturing”. Using data on Japanese FDI into 207 U.S. service industries, maximium-likehood estimates reveal that dollar appreciations are positively correlated with service FDI flows into the U.S. This positive correlation is stronger for non-tradable services versus tradable services. For tradable and non-tradable producer services, higher exchange rate uncertainty may lead to fewer FDI occurrences. On average, across all types of services, higher U.S. unit labor costs relative to Japan had a deterrent effect on Japanese service FDI as well. Finally, this paper also provides a useful benchmark to partition services by tradability.     

The influence of retailing-mix levers on private label market share: The case of the Italian FMCG market

An in-depth analysis of the impact of retailing-mix levers on private label market share in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods sector in Italy is made. The direction and intensity of the impact of assortment, price and sales promotion is measured for different product categories. OLS and GMM regressions run on an IRI Group dataset indicate a strong positive effect of product range, which can be considered as a proxy of on-shelf brand visibility. Increasing private label assortment share thus appears to constitute the key supply-side factor in augmenting sales share on the Italian grocery retailing market.     

论实现法治的最基本条件

市场经济是一种法治经济，所有权与债权都必须在保持合法主体的前提下，通过等价交换的原则来得以充分实现，因此我们必须加强社会主义市场经济的法治建设。     

预约定价制度适用于我国的成本悖论解析

实行预约定价制度可以较好地解决转让定价滥用和国际双重征税或不征税问题,提高税务部门工作效率。为了调查预约定价制度在我国的可行性,在对预约定价制度实行的基于信息、客体、国际税收合作、转让定价调整方法和事后监控的成本悖论进行具体分析的基础上,得出预约定价制度必须与传统的事后税收监管相结合,才能有效解决转让定价问题的结论。     

Market information and channel price structure

An analytical model is developed that considers the effect of demand information, and the precision with which demand forecasts are made, on channel profitability. Different channel price structures such as Stackelberg and Vertically integrated are considered and comparisons are made of the impact of information precision on channel profits under each structure. Other demand factors such as brand substitutability and share of base level demand are also included in the analysis, and the interaction of information and demand effects is examined. An empirical study is carried out using a sample of firms based in Hong Kong and support is found for the model propositions.