Monetary policy in open economies: Practical perspectives for pragmatic central bankers

This paper reviews and interprets some of the key policy implications that flow from a class of DSGE models for optimal monetary policy in the open economy. The framework suggests that good macroeconomic outcomes in open economies are possible by focusing inflation targeting that is implemented by a Taylor type rule, a rule that in equilibrium is reflected in the exchange rate as an asset price. Optimal monetary policy will not be able deliver a stationary (‘stable’) nominal exchange rate – let alone a fixed exchange rate or one that remains inside a target zone – because, absent a commitment device, optimal monetary can’t deliver a stationary domestic price level. Another feature in the data for inflation targeting countries that is consistent with monetary policy via Taylor type rule is that it will tend push the nominal exchange rate in the opposite direction from PPP in response to an ‘inflation’ shock—the ‘bad news god news’ result of Clarida and Waldman (2008. Is Bad News about Inflation Good News for the Exchange Rate. In: John Campbell, (Ed.), Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, Chicago: University of Chicago Press), Clarida and Waldman (2014. Bad News About Inflation is Good News for the Nominal Exchange Rate Under Optimal Monetary Policy: DSGE Theory and a Decade of Empirical Evidence). This is so even though in the long run of these models the nominal exchange rate must in expectation obey PPP.     

预售模式下酒店客房定价及最优超售量确定的研究

创新驱动战略下国内服务业的发展取得了长足进步．为服务业提供了完善的预订制度且高效的预订系统，酒店业是一个采用预订系统销售自身产品的典型服务业，其预订流程非常完善。分析了在预售期内带有预订取消现象且预订未取消的旅客随机到达的情况下．构建数学模型就预售期内服务产品的定价及产品最优超售量问题进行了研究。     

Recurrence plots analysis of the CNY exchange markets based on phase space reconstruction

The employment of autocorrelation-based transformation to study the dynamics of the exchange rate system is meaningful because it benefits for chaotic prediction on the basis that the transformation from an exchange rate sequence to its associated autocorrelation sequence is reversible. This paper examines the influence of autocorrelation-based transformation on the systemic dynamics using exchange rates of CNY against different currencies among USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, MYR and RUB. First, we construct recurrence plots of exchange rate return sequences and autocorrelation sequences with a fixed sliding window length of 20. The recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) shows that the exchange rate return sequences exhibit lower degrees of determinism than the autocorrelation sequences. Further, by analyzing the RQA measures with bootstrap techniques and box plots, we reveal that the RQA measures of the exchange rate return systems and the autocorrelation sequence systems are mostly significant, and the vertical structures of recurrence plots of autocorrelation sequences are more sensitive to the shuffles of bootstrap techniques. Finally, we investigate the evolution of RQA measures with the changes of sliding window lengths. The analysis shows that appropriately adjusting the sliding window length can increase the systemic determinism.     

基于可持续增长率的杜邦分析体系的研究

在经济全球化大环境下，企业具有更加多样化的会计信息，也就更需要能全面反映企业业绩的财务分析体系。多年来传统杜邦分析法虽因能系统、全面、直观地反映企业财务状况，提高对财务报表的分析效率，提升经营管理能力而得到企业的广泛应用，但它本身存在着诸多缺陷。针对其局限性，本文引入可持续增长率来改进传统的杜邦分析体系以更加符合现代企业的要求。     

Financial markets with volatility uncertainty

We investigate financial markets under model risk caused by uncertain volatilities. To this end, we consider a financial market that features volatility uncertainty. We use the notion of G-expectation and its corresponding G-Brownian motion recently introduced by Peng (2007) to ensure a mathematically consistent framework. Our financial market consists of a riskless asset and a risky stock with price process modeled by geometric G-Brownian motion. We adapt the notion of arbitrage to this more complex situation, and consider stock price dynamics which exclude arbitrage opportunities. Volatility uncertainty results in an incomplete market. We establish the interval of no-arbitrage prices for general European contingent claims, and deduce explicit results in the Markovian case.     

Spillovers between sovereign CDS and exchange rate markets: The role of market fear

As important variables in financial market, sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) and exchange rate have correlations and spillovers. And the volatility spillovers between the two markets become further complicated with the effect of market fear caused by extreme events such as global pandemic. This paper attempts to explore the complex interactions within the “sovereign CDS-exchange rate” system by adopting the forecast error variance decomposition method. The results show that there is a relatively close linkage between the two markets and the total spillover index of the system is dynamic. For most of the past, the exchange rate has a higher spillover effect on the sovereign CDS than vice versa. Moreover, after the market fear variables are introduced, the “sovereign CDS-exchange rate” system and market fear variables present bidirectional spillovers. The results of the study have particular significance for maintaining the financial stability and preventing risk contagion between markets.     

Estimating the duration of different seasons and their impact on hotel room prices

The purpose of the study is to accurately measure the span of different seasons and its effect on the fluctuation of the occupancy rate and the average room rates in the hospitality sector. While prior studies have concentrated on measuring seasonality using calendar months, this study takes a different approach by measuring seasons in terms of the date count so that the exact starting and ending date of a season can be identified. This step involves adopting a non-parametric methodology that split the time scale into several small parts to obtain a better fit of the relationship and that can detect the starting and end of the season when given specific dates.     

A new multiscale decomposition ensemble approach for forecasting exchange rates

Due to the high complexity and strong nonlinearity nature of foreign exchange rates, how to forecast foreign exchange rate accurately is regarded as a challenging research topic. Therefore, developing highly accurate forecasting method is of great significance to investors and policy makers. A new multiscale decomposition ensemble approach to forecast foreign exchange rates is proposed in this paper. In the approach, the variational mode decomposition (VMD) method is utilized to divide foreign exchange rates into a finite number of subcomponents; the support vector neural network (SVNN) technique is used to model and forecast each subcomponent respectively; another SVNN technique is utilized to integrate the forecasting results of each subcomponent to generate the final forecast results. To verify the superiority of the proposed approach, four major exchange rates were chosen for model comparison and evaluation. The experimental results indicate that our proposed VMD-SVNN-SVNN multiscale decomposition ensemble approach outperforms some other benchmarks in terms of forecasting accuracy and statistical tests. This demonstrates that our proposed VMD-SVNN-SVNN multiscale decomposition ensemble approach is promising for forecasting foreign exchange rates.     

Exchange rate dynamics and US dollar-denominated sovereign bond prices in emerging markets

Using data on Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, the Philippines, Russia and Turkey, our empirical results show that the exchange rates of their currencies have adequate explanatory power in explaining their US dollar-denominated sovereign bonds, particularly in the post-global financial crisis period. We develop a two-factor pricing model with closed-form solutions for the sovereign bonds in which the correlated factors are foreign exchange rates and US risk-free interest rates that follow a double square-root process relevant in the low interest rate environment. The numerical results and associated error analysis show that the model credit spreads can broadly track the market credit spreads.     

The effect of specific discount pattern in terms of price promotions on perceived price attractiveness and purchase intention: An experimental research

This study aims to investigate consumer perceptions and reactions in terms of specific discount patterns (fixed price, 40% discount, discount from 500 TL to 300 TL and 20% + 25% discount) in price promotion. According to the results, specific discount patterns in price promotion have a significant effect on perceived price attractiveness and purchase intention. When the specific discount patterns in price promotion and gender interaction were analyzed in terms of perceived price attractiveness, the scenario of the “discount from TL 500 to TL 300” significantly differentiated from both the control scenario (fixed price) and experimental scenarios for female. For males, no significant difference was found between the control and experimental scenarios. In terms of purchase intention, a significant difference was found between the fixed price scenario and the discount scenario from 500 TL to 300 TL and between the fixed price and 20% + 25% discount scenario. The theoretical managerial implications of the study were discussed, and future research suggestions were presented.