Indexzertifikat oder ETF? Eine entscheidungstheoretische Analyse

Zusammenfassung  Private Anleger favorisieren zunehmend passive Anlagestrategien, also Investmentmethoden, bei denen versucht wird, einen Index m?glichst genau nachzubilden. Wir vergleichen Indexzertifikate und Exchange Traded Funds, zwei Produkte, die dem Anleger eine Wertentwicklung versprechen, die dem zugrunde liegenden Index m?glichst exakt entspricht. Bei unserer Untersuchung berücksichtigen wir erstmals sowohl Rendite-, Steuer- als auch Risikoaspekte und zeigen, dass bis 2007 für die meisten Privatanleger ein Indexzertifikat einem Exchange Traded Fund vorzuziehen gewesen w?re. Mit der Einführung der Abgeltungsteuer auf Zertifikate hat sich die Situation jedoch ge?ndert: Anleger, die auf Grund des Wegfalls der Steuerfreiheit von Kursgewinnen vor der Umsetzung der Reform zum 1. Januar 2009 ihr Depot langfristig strukturieren m?chten, sollten sich für Exchange Traded Funds entscheiden.

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Summary  Private investors increasingly use passive investment strategies, i.e. investment methods that try to replicate a stock market index as accurate as possible. In this paper we compare retail index certificates and exchange traded funds. Both investment products promise a performance that corresponds to the performance of an underlying index. In our analysis, we simultaneously consider return, tax as well as risk aspects. It is shown that retail index certificates used to be the first choice before the (partial) introduction of the flat rate withholding tax in Germany. This has changed recently: Investors that may want to restructure their portfolio before January 1st 2009 – when the flat rate withholding tax applies to all investment products – should opt for exchange traded funds now.

     

Intra-industry differences in vertical integration, heterogeneous costs and pricing: the case of web hosting

In many differentiated product industries, both traditional and “new economy” activities, vertically integrated firms also supply inputs to apparent rivals in the downstream business. This generates heterogeneity between low- and high-sunk cost suppliers with implications for entry and competitive conduct. The web hosting market is typical with primary suppliers operating alongside resellers who rent server space from them. We explore the impact of competition in US hosting using a unique dataset covering 15,000 packages offered by 3,500 firms. The results suggest price is sensitive to competitor clustering in quality space; an outcome consistent with easy entry for resellers with ultra-low fixed costs.

Disorderly adjustments to the misalignments in the Korean won

This paper estimates the equilibrium exchange rates for Korea'sreal effective rates using Clark and MacDonald's (1999) behaviouralequilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach. The estimation resultsuggests that the real exchange rate was substantially overvaluedduring the period prior to the currency crisis of 1997–98.The subsequent adjustment, however, was disorderly in the sensethat the real exchange rate overshot its long-run equilibriumvalue. There was also a large deviation from the BEER, indicatingthat the sharp depreciation was not an equilibrium phenomenon.     

汇率制度与货币政策——发展中国家和小国经济的思考

本文中,我们将研究在资本市场对外开放及汇率固定条件下货币政策的管理机制问题。我们的目标是探讨货币政策能否在此种情况下继续独立而有效地稳定国内经济。为此,我们建议两种制度上的约束。给定这些约束,我们证明货币政策仍然有效。同时,本文讨论了此种制度选择对发展中国家和小国经济的意义。     

浮动本位兑换、双重汇率与中国经济:1870—1900

19世纪70年代以后,当世界上多数国家纷纷放弃金银复本位而采用金本位时,中国仍然是银铜复本位制度。与金银复本位两种本位货币之间有固定兑换比价不同,中国银铜复本位两种本位货币的兑换比价是浮动的,由此造成了对外是金银汇率,对内是银铜(钱)汇率的双重汇率。双重汇率导致了汇率贬值一倍时贸易却由顺差变为逆差,实际外债和赔款的增加加重了财政负担,制钱成本上升带来的物价上涨又加剧了中下层民众的贫困化。本文在郑友揆(1991)研究的基础上,结合货币理论的新进展和新的历史资料,分析1870年到1900年双重汇率对当时中国经济的影响,在此基础上以金银复本位为参照探讨中国银铜复本位制度的内在缺陷。     

论人民币汇率政策思路的重大转变

本文认为,为实现中国经济的内外均衡及经济的长期有效增长,人民币汇率的政策思路应有以下重大转变:应从贸易导向转向市场导向;应从过于担心汇率波动的风险转向充分利用汇率变动所带来的好处;应从偏向对国内生产者的保护转向同时强调对消费者的保护;应从注重扩大就业转向注重创造有利的经济环境;应从注重人民币均衡汇率的计算转向着眼于创造能形成均衡汇率的市场机制;应从制度变革及经济转型的角度看待中国实行浮动汇率制度的问题.     

Reforms,Exchange Rates and Monetary Commitment: A Panel Analysis for OECD Countries

The paper investigates the link between monetary policy and structural reforms in open economies. We test three hypotheses: (a) the Calmfors hypothesis that the degree of reforms is higher in the case of autonomous policy and lower in the case of commitment, (b) the TINA hypothesis which implies a positive impact of a monetary policy rule on the extent of reforms, and (c) a third factors hypothesis. In our empirical analysis on panel data of 23 OECD countries from 1980–2000 we find little evidence for the Calmfors hypothesis, but evidence in favor of the TINA argument for labor market and regulatory reform.

流动性过剩成因及对策研究

流动性过剩已引起全社会的广泛关注和研究,文章从持续的经常账户和资本账户的"双顺差"、外汇储备、居民储蓄、企业、政府储蓄以及国际投机性资本等角度分析了流动性过剩形成的原因,并提出了解决问题的一些新思路。     

Price uncertainty,future markets and correlation

This paper examines the optimal trade and hedging decisions of a competitive exporting firm which faces concurrently hedgeable exchange rate risk and non‐hedgeable inflation risk. The macroeconomic interaction between exchange rate and domestic inflation rate risk is described by a state variable. The (strong) correlation is pivotal in determining the optimal risk management. It is shown how optimal hedging strategies are affected by state‐dependent preferences of the firm. The optimal hedge policy is to minimize the variation of marginal utility of final wealth across states of nature instead of minimizing the variance of final wealth.     

On discretion versus commitment and the role of the direct exchange rate channel in a forward-looking open economy model

Abstract

This paper compares optimal monetary policy under discretion and commitment in an economy where the direct exchange rate channel is operative. The stabilization bias under discretion is shown to be weaker in an open economy relative to a closed economy. In an open economy, a ‘less conservative central banker’, one that attaches a smaller weight to the variance of inflation in the loss function, can be appointed to replicate the behaviour of real output that eventuates under commitment. Evaluating the social loss function under discretion and commitment, we find that the existence of a direct exchange rate channel in the Phillips Curve mitigates the pronounced differences between the two strategies in case of high persistence in the stochastic shocks.