中国外汇储备与货币供给量的关系——基于双对数模型

2001年以来,持续的双顺差促使外汇储备量迅速积累,人民币升值压力增大,为了维持人民币汇率的稳定,政府不得不加大货币投放量来回笼外汇市场上过多的外汇。通过建立外汇储备和货币供给量(M1、M2)之间的双对数模型,进行实证分析得出结论:外汇储备的增加确实推动了中国货币供应量的增加,并且外汇储备变动给M1带来的影响大于M2。因此,应适当控制外汇储备规模消除外汇储备超额增长的制度性原因,完善货币政策工具,积极进行金融创新。     

我国外汇储备货币组合的实证分析

截至2006年2月我国外汇储备达8536亿美元,超过日本成为世界外汇储备持有量第一大国,其后我国外汇储备也呈不断增长的态势,到2007年3月已达12020.31亿美元.外汇储备的持续增加意味着面临的风险也在持续增加.因此,如何确定合理的外汇储备币种组合成为目前需要迫切研究的课题.本文根据国内外已有研究确定了外汇储备货币结构的影响因素,结合因子分析法,得出了我国外汇储备币种组合的新选择,提出了我国外汇储备货币组合的对策建议.     

汇率形成机制与做市商制度:动因、成本分析

人民币汇率形成机制问题成为近年来国际经济事务中的焦点.中国外汇交易中心2005年5月推出8种外汇交易品种以及引入外币间交易做市商制度,这一举措成为观察、试验做市商制度的序曲.本文研究认为,外汇市场引入做市商制度有利于改善人民币汇率形成机制,但是由于我国外汇市场还不完善,引入做市商制度也会带来一定的成本.为了全面推广做市商制度,多方面配套问题尚待解决.     

国际贸易模型中的汇率变量研究

随着汇率波动的加剧,汇率对贸易的影响凸现.古典与新古典主义因所处于固定汇率体制中的金本位时期,所以并未给以汇率以足够的重视;凯恩斯主义在其需求分析的框架中研究汇率,因此其汇率分析也必然带有凯恩斯主义固有的缺陷--缺乏较坚实的微观基础;新国际贸易理论在产业内贸易框架中分析汇率变量.缺乏宏观高度.本文基于浮动汇率前提,试在宏观经济层面寻找国际贸易中汇率变量的微观基础,并给出程式化分析.     

汇兑损益对上市公司利润影响的理论和实证分析

从2005年7月21日汇改后,人民币汇率的波动远大于汇改之前,由此给企业形成的汇兑损益将会更加不稳定。在此背景下,本文通过研究上市公司重点行业近几年汇兑损益的变化,并就汇兑损益对企业财务费用和利润影响进行了实证分析,得出汇兑损益和企业利润存在正相关关系,在此基础上,提出了企业控制外汇风险、减少汇兑损失的相关措施。     

Falling through the cracks: International accounting rate reform at the ITU and WTO

Heightened attention to international accounting rates at the ITU and the WTO has led some observers to conclude that carriers soon will impose cost-based termination charges. This article concludes that while accounting rates have declined on some routes, many incumbent carriers can and will delay or thwart progress. The article examines the FCC's unilateral regulatory initiative as evidence of a growing schism between governments keen on immediate progress and those that fear a ‘free fall’ in accounting rates and a quick end to settlement surpluses. The article also considers technological innovations like call-back and Internet telephony with an eye toward assesssing whether and how widespread accounting rate reductions will occur.     

Causality and volatility patterns between gold prices and exchange rates

This paper provides a new perspective on the link between gold prices and exchange rates. Based on gold prices denominated in five different currencies and the related bilateral exchange rates, we put causalities and short-run volatility transmission under closer scrutiny. We provide evidence that the identification of a strong hedge function of gold requires an explicit modeling of the volatility component. For all currencies, exchange rate depreciations initially have a negative impact on the gold price after one day which turns out to be positive after two days in most of the cases. Contrary to previous studies, our results point to a specific role of the dollar in the context of gold-exchange rate relationships: volatility of dollar exchange rates more frequently results in strong hedging functions of gold prices. Furthermore, the gold price denominated in the US dollar tends to increase after a depreciation of the dollar.     

公众预期、通胀成因与经济波动牵扯

针对金融危机冲击下各国宏观经济政策所导致的新的世界经济波动,结合中国当前通货膨胀两难局面,运用古典模型中的二分法解构中国通货膨胀,得出名义变量引致了通胀的结论,并将古典增长模型与利率平滑规则有机结合,推断出现阶段通胀背景下仍应坚持适度从紧的货币政策规则,引导公众心理形成稳定的期望收入预期,才能真正意义上在稳定通胀的同时,形成社会理性消费预期,从而使扩大内需成为可能,这才是解决现阶段增长困境所在。     

The timing of exchange rate collapse

Recent episodes of exchange rate collapse have renewed interest in models of speculative attacks. These episodes have been considered by some observers to be inconsistent with “fundamentals” models of attack since there was no prolonged period of policy misalignment and declining reserves, as required by such models. This paper develops a fundamentals model in which collapse is instantaneous at the time of unexpected policy change and/or a change in the expectations of future policy, even for a reserve abundant country.     

Efficiency Gains Under Exchange-Rate Emission Trading

In the case of emission of non-uniformly dispersed pollutants such as SO2 the negative effects depend on the location of the sources. A unit increase at one source must be compensated by either a larger or smaller reduction at another source to keep the negative effects at the same level. Emission trading between countries is possible under the Second Sulphur Protocol. Exchange rate trading and third party problems are studied within a simultaneous model facilitating impositions of various environmental constraints. Simulations based on the negotiated emission quotas are offered. Results indicate potential cost savings of 19%.