The expectations hypothesis and decoupling of short- and long-term US interest rates: A pairwise approach

The link between short-term policy rates and long-term rates elucidate the potential effectiveness of monetary policy. We examine the US term structure of interest rates using a pairwise econometric approach advocated by Pesaran (2007). Our empirical modelling strategy employs a probabilistic test statistic for the expectations hypothesis of the term structure based on the percentage of unit root rejections among all interest rate differentials. We find support for the expectations hypothesis and provide new insights into the nature of interest rate decoupling which are of value to policymakers. The maturity gap associated with interest rate pairs negatively impacts on the probability of stationarity, and also on the speed of adjustment towards long-run equilibrium. We further show that the speed of adjustment has become more sensitive to the maturity gap over time.     

对蒙代尔-弗莱明模型的修正--中国经济增长对人民币汇率作用机制

蒙代尔-弗菜明模型认为，经济增长会使一国经常账户恶化从而导致本国货币贬值，中国自1994年以来经济快速增长，而经常账户却是持续顺差，在利率不断下降条件下，资金大量流入，人民币汇率稳中有升，外汇储备大幅度增加，这些显然有悖于蒙代尔-弗菜明模型。本文认为，购买力平价理论更符合中国现实，并给出了购买力平价理论动态表述，然后对传统的汇率货币模型进行修正，进一步分析经济增长与汇率之间关系。最后本文对蒙代尔-弗莱明模型国际收支平衡线进行修正，并运用修正后的M-F模型分析在开放经济条件下的财政政策与货币政策效果。     

Bond pricing in a hidden Markov model of the short rate

Abstract. We consider a diffusion type model for the short rate, where the drift and diffusion parameters are modulated by an underlying Markov process. The underlying Markov process is assumed to have a stochastic differential driven by Wiener processes and a marked point process. The model for the short rate thus falls within the category of hidden Markov models.     

上市公司主业鲜明率的修正方法

指出了常用的主业鲜明率在实际使用中遇到的问题,主要问题是计算值会出现无意义的结果,并且对真实主营业务比率的反映会有不真实的情况,提出了修正的方法,即通过修正企业经营总体规模的方法进行修正,最后通过实际计算证明修正结果消除了无意义的结果,也更加真实地反映了主营业务的比率.     

人民币汇率波动对我国出口价格传递效应分析

汇率传递效应不仅影响国内总需求与总供给的均衡．而且还会影响国内货币政策实施的有效性。人民币汇率变动对我国进口价格及其他价格水平的传递程度是决定汇率调节我国贸易收支以及稳定国内物价水平的一个关键因素。本文的目的在于运用协整等方法分析人民币汇率变动对我国出口价格水平的影响,研究结果表明：无论长期内还是短期内,进出口价格对汇率波动的反应都较为敏感,不完全汇率的传递广泛存在于中国的出口企业。     

Impact of exchange rate movements on exports: An analysis of Indian non-financial sector firms

We explore the real effective exchange rate (REER) effects on the share of exports of Indian non-financial sector firms for the period 2000–2010. Our empirical analysis reveals that, on average, there has been a strong and significant negative impact from currency appreciation and currency volatility on Indian firms' export shares. Labor costs are found to intensify the exchange rate effects on trade. Further, there is evidence that the Indian firms considered here respond asymmetrically to exchange rates. For instance, the REER change effect is more likely to be driven by a negative appreciation effect than a depreciation effect. Also, Indian firms that have smaller export shares tend to have a stronger response to both REER change and volatility. Compared with those exporting goods, firms that export services are more affected by exchange rate fluctuations. The findings, especially those on asymmetric responses, have important policy implications.     

房地产税税率:比较与设计

世界各国房地产税改革的多样性及其炯然不同的改革绩效,为中国房地产税制的现代化转型提供了丰富的学习素材。本文考察、比较了各国有代表性的房地产税税率制度,研究在中国建立市场价值体系房地产税以及税率设计方面可供借鉴的经验,围绕谁决定税率、税率是否有差别或差别是怎样的、税率应定在何等水平这三个关键问题,对我国房地产税税率设计提出政策建议。     

两种制度变迁理论的比较研究——马克思社会发展理论与诺斯制度变迁理论的比较

经济制度动态发展是马克思社会发展理论和诺斯制度变迁理论的共同之处。通过对二者在经济制度动态发展理论的性质、研究目的、主客观条件、制度变革方式以及制度变迁特征等方面的比较分析,可以得出,在当前社会主义建设中,应该以马克思理论为指导,适当借鉴新制度经济学特别是诺斯关于制度变迁理论的合理成分,为今后的改革发展提供理论支持。     

论中国婚姻的不平等交换关系

从理论层面探讨婚姻关系的交换本质及其内涵,认为情爱、性爱、经济、社会和安全的交换是婚姻交换的主要内容.揭示了我国婚姻交换关系中的不平等表现及其原因,并对未婚和已婚女性分别提出建立和发展平等婚姻交换关系的对策建议.