日本的公司社会责任和社会期待

社会期待和社会责任的模式根据各国文化思想和社会动态的不同而不同。本文介绍日本公司社会责任以及社会期待的特点,探究与社会责任有关的文化思想和社会动态,以及现在日本公司治理中的问题。     

The Importance of Time‐Series Extrapolation for Macroeconomic Expectations

This article presents a simple experiment on how laypeople form macroeconomic expectations. Subjects have to forecast inflation and gross domestic product growth. By varying the information provided in different treatments, we can assess the importance of historical time‐series information vs. information acquired outside the experimental setting such as knowledge of expert forecasts. It turns out that the availability of historical data has a dominant impact on expectations and wipes out the influence of outside‐lab information completely. Consequently, backward‐looking behavior can be identified unambiguously as a decisive factor in expectation formation.     

Behaviour of the Liverpool model with weight given to alternative public forecasts

From an a priori consideration of the marginal costs and benefits, public forecasts appear to be strong candidates to condition the expectation of agents. Our purpose is to examine the implications for the forecasting and simulation properties of the Liverpool macroeconomic model if expectations in the behavioural equations of the model are replaced by a simple average of the Liverpool and Cambridge Economic Policy Groups forecasts. The exercise produces large differences in the forecasts and simulations of the Liverpool model.     

Political risk and the expectations hypothesis

This paper develops and empirically supports, using 3 and 6 month interest rates, a theory that political risk can explain the shifting term premia found in U.S. data. We find that incorporating these political regime shifts yield results that support the expectations hypothesis.     

Is man doomed to progress?

This paper is dedicated to the empirical exploration of the welfare effect of expectations and progress per se. Using 10 waves of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS), a panel household survey rich in subjective variables, the analysis suggests that for a given total stock of inter-temporal consumption, agents are more satisfied with an increasing time profile of consumption: they seem to have a strong “taste for improvement”. This contributes to qualify the “Easterlin paradox” that income growth does not make people happy.     

Inflation Dynamics in the Euro Area and the Role of Expectations

This paper examines the empirical performance of the New Keynesian Phillips curve and its hybrid specification in the euro area. Instead of imposing rational expectations, direct measures, i.e. OECD forecasts, are used as empirical proxies for economic agents’ inflation expectations. Real marginal costs are proxied by three alternative measures. The results suggest that once the rational expectations hypothesis is relaxed and directly measured expectations are used, the European inflation process can be modeled using the forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve. However, when allowing for possible non-rationalities in expectations, inflation can be modeled more accurately by the hybrid Phillips curve with the additional lagged inflation term. In this approach, output gap turns out to be at least as good as labor income share as a proxy for real marginal cost. Moreover, the inflation process seems to have become more forward-looking in the recent years of low and stable inflation.The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Bank of Finland. Special thanks are due to the editor, two anonymous referees, Juha Tarkka, Jouko Vilmunen and Matti Virén for useful comments. I am also grateful to David Mayes and Geoffrey Wood for helpful suggestions and to Heli Tikkunen for excellent research assistance. For their constructive comments, I would also thank participants in the conference on the Eurosystem Inflation Persistence Network at the ECB, which was held in Frankfurt in December 2003.     

异质预期、非理性行为与并购绩效——基于上市公司的实证研究

本文运用事件研究法,对2002-2005年的沪深上市公司并购行为进行了调查,发现反映投资者非理性行为的市场换手率、封闭式基金折价指数和个股超额换手率与公司并购后超额收益存在显著负相关关系.本文认为,Miller(1977)的观点并不完全成立,投资者畀质预期并不是导致公司并购前股票上升和并购后股价下跌的主要原因,投资者非理性行为扮演着重要的作用,股票的定价应该更充分考虑投资者的非理性行为.     

Are women expected to be more generous?

This paper analyzes if men and women are expected to behave differently regarding altruism. Since the dictator game provides the most suitable design for studying altruism and generosity in the lab setting, we use a modified version to study the beliefs involved in the game. Our results are substantial: men and women are expected to behave differently. Moreover, while women believe that women are more generous, men consider that women are as generous as men.

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Electronic Supplementary Material  The online version of this article () contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. We appreciate comments from Josemari Aizpurua, Shoshana Neuman and participants in seminars at Bar-Ilan University, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Univ. Publica Navarra. Tim Cason and one anonymous referee made substantial comments on the previous draft. Financial support from CICYT (SEJ2007-62081/ECON and SEJ2006-00959/SOCI) and FCEA (SOC2.05/43) is gratefully acknowledge. Martha Gaustad revised the English grammar.     

The great moderation of the term structure of UK interest rates

The conduct of monetary policy, the term structure of interest rates and the structure of the economy in the UK have changed over the post-WWII period. We model the interaction between the macroeconomy and financial markets using a time-varying VAR augmented with the factors from the yield curve. There is evidence of a great moderation in the dynamics of the yield curve, with the factors being persistent and volatile before the introduction of inflation targeting in 1992 but becoming stable afterwards. The introduction of time-variation in the Factor Augmented VAR improves the fit of the model and results in expectation hypothesis consistent yields that are close to actual yields, even at long maturities. Monetary policy shocks had a significant impact on the volatility of inflation, output and the policy rate over the pre-inflation targeting era, but their contribution has been negligible under the current regime. Shocks to the level of the yield curve accounted for a large fraction of inflation variability only before 1992.     

包含多个知情交易者的可甄别交易流模型研究

本文扩展Corb（1994）分析框架,研究包含多个知情交易者的可甄别交易流模型．通过数值解的方法求得理性预期均衡。研究表明,线性理性预期均衡与相应的卡尔类型模型的均衡是相同的。在非线性理性预期均衡中,与卡尔类型模型相比,知情交易者的期望利润更低．市场流动性更高;当市场上不知情交易者的数量较少以及知情交易者的私人信息准确度不高时．知情交易者的交易强度更大,价格更有效,反之,知情交易者的交易强度会更小。