Export pricing and exchange rate expectations under uncertainty

This paper contributes to the literature on firms’ export pricing by assessing whether and to what extent firms take into account the expected future evolution of the exchange rates while setting their prices. Using French micro-level trade data, our empirical analysis reveals that by adjusting their export prices, firms partly absorb information about future exchange rate variations. The extent to which individual exporters absorb future exchange rate fluctuations is found to depend on their market power, in accordance with theoretical dynamic demand-side models encompassing mechanisms creating an inter-temporal relationship between current market shares and future profits. The analysis also shows that the strength of such expectation-related mechanism is considerably reduced with greater future exchange rate uncertainty, in line with an interpretation of pricing-to-market as an investment decision under uncertainty. In a comparative perspective our results are shown to drive asymmetric responses across destinations of aggregate bilateral export flows to expected exchange rate movements.     

仿冒品重复消费的动力机制

仿冒品现象已成为商业社会中备受关注的问题,而消费者的重复消费是它盛行的重要形态之一。本文建立消费者的仿冒品满意度整合模型,来明确仿冒品被重复消费的缘由与机制。通过调查和分析得到了以下主要结论:第一,消费者的产品涉入度、奢侈品消费动机、品牌消费认同和诚信意识对于仿冒品的绩效期望和绩效感知分别有较为显著的影响;第二,仿冒品的绩效期望和绩效感知分别对于它的满意度和重复消费有较为显著的正向影响。这些表明,仿冒品的重复性消费以消费者的专业性和诚实性为基础,并受到较高的消费预期和真实的用后感驱动。这些都为知名品牌战略制衡仿冒品提出了严峻挑战。     

The theory of met expectations applied to expatriate adjustment: the role of crosscultural training

This study will test two hypotheses to determine whether the formation of expectations (prior to the global assignment) affects expatriates' adjustment. This study utilized a sample of seventy-three expatriates who completed questionnaires approximately ten months after arriving in their host countries. All the expatriates had predeparture cross-cultural training, but the training varied in perceived relevance. The expatriates were assigned either to countries where their native language was spoken (e.g. Americans in the UK) or to countries where their native language was not spoken (e.g. Americans in France). The results of the mediated regression analysis suggest that the more tailored and relevant the pre-departure cross-cultural training, the more expectations were either met or positively exceeded. Analyses suggest that both cross-cultural training and the language spoken in the host country affect the accuracy of expatriates' expectations prior to the assignment - and that having accurate expectations, in turn, positively affects cross-cultural adjustment. The results from this study encourage organizations to develop programmes that will ensure their expatriates have realistic expectations prior to their global assignments (e.g. through tailored cross-cultural training).     

Switching regime models in the Spanish inter-bank market

Nonlinear present value models are adjusted to data from the Spanish inter-bank market between 1986 and 1992, with the ultimate objective of testing the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure of the interest rates. The nonlinearity stems from using models with two stochastically switching regimes. The models are submitted to various specification tests and are compared with linear present value models. Very clearly differentiated regimes are identified, the analysis of the results in the light of the institutional, political and economic events that affected the Spanish economy during the period of study demonstrates the usefulness of this type of models. The expectation hypothesis is, however, rejected.     

Social networks and citizen election forecasting: The more friends the better

Most citizens correctly forecast which party will win a given election, and such forecasts usually have a higher level of accuracy than voter intention polls. How do citizens do it? We argue that social networks are a big part of the answer: much of what we know as citizens comes from our interactions with others. Previous research has considered only indirect characteristics of social networks when analyzing why citizens are good forecasters. We use a unique German survey and consider direct measures of social networks in order to explore their role in election forecasting. We find that three network characteristics –  size, political composition, and frequency of political discussion – are among the most important variables when predicting the accuracy of citizens’ election forecasts.     

货币政策有效性与货币政策透明制度的兴起

本文着重探讨货币政策透明性与货币政策有效性之间的关系,目的在于说明货币政策透明制度能够兴起的一个关键因素在于货币政策的透明性有利于提高货币政策的有效性。在标准的“时间不一致性”理论里面,货币政策是否透明对货币政策的效应是没有影响的,因为在这类理论里面,经济主体能够使用所有可获得的信息形成与经济系统相一致的、无偏的估计。但问题的关键在于,这种假设的基本前提在实践中并不完全成立。当考虑到经济主体对经济运行结果和经济运行过程的不完全认知时,货币政策透明性对于促进经济主体的学习过程,稳定和引导公众的通胀预期,进而提高货币政策的有效性就起着至关重要的作用。     

基于市场预期的我国货币政策效应研究

本文阐述了动态时间序列指数体系的理论.利用动态时间序列模型对我国货币政策的效应进行了实证检验,得出了动态指数模型能较好地对我同货币政策效应进行度量的结论.检验证明,由于中国人民银行逐渐通过各种方式与公众进行沟通和交流,使得我国货币政策透明度正在逐年稳步提升.     

基于适应性预期的货币政策传导研究

适应性预期是中央银行货币政策预期管理的重要组成部分。本文以存准率调整作为货币政策的代表,构建了一个多维变量自治系统,通过高阶常系数非齐次线性微分方程极限解的技术方法,研究了基于适应性预期的货币政策的传导机理,并对其传导效果进行了实证检验。研究表明,以存准率调整为代表的货币政策在直接冲击货币供给曲线的同时,可以通过改变市场参与者的适应性预期,来引导市场变化与宏观经济发展;货币当局恰当地选择存准率调整的时机与力度,能够强化货币政策与实体经济的相关性,低成本地实现预期目标,并为将来的货币政策调整提供更宽松的运作空间。     

互联网金融背景下风险投资双边匹配选择问题研究

针对互联网金融背景下风险投资双边匹配选择问题,考虑到风险投资者与风险企业在双向选择时的心理期望,提出一种基于前景理论的风险投资双边匹配决策模型;最后,通过实例分析,验证了该方法的可行性与有效性。     

Do expectations matter? Reassessing the effects of government spending on key macroeconomic variables in Germany

This article contributes to the debate on how to properly identify exogenous fiscal shocks in the data. We include expectations held by consumers and firms into the standard vector autoregression (VAR) framework based on information from historical issues of the German political magazine Der Spiegel. The findings underscore the need to account for expectations, as failing to do so leads to significant misinterpretation of the effects of government spending. When neglecting anticipation effects, our results support the recent findings for Germany by pointing to a rather positive effect of government spending on GDP. However, inclusion of expectations yields a change in this effect, suggesting that government spending is much less beneficial for GDP, as it crowds out private consumption and investment.