The information in the term structure of German interest rates

This paper tests the Expectations Hypothesis (EH) of the term structure of interest rates using new data for Germany. The German term structure appears to forecast future short-term interest rates surprisingly well, compared with previous studies with US data, while it has lower predictive power for long-term interest rates. However, the direction suggested by the coefficient estimates is consistent with that implied by the EH, that is when the term spread widens, long rates increase. The use of instrumental variables to deal with possible measurement errors in the data significantly improves regressions for the long rates. Moreover, re-estimation with proxy variables to account for the possibility of time-varying term premia confirms that the evolution of both short and long rates corresponds to the predictions of the EH and that most of the information is in the term spread. These results are important as they suggest that monetary policy in Germany could be guided by the slope of the term structure.     

Expectations and regime robustness in price formation: evidence from vector autoregressive models and recursive methods

The forward-looking linear quadratic adjustment cost (LQAC) model has received attention when modelling prices. Empirical evidence supporting the model seems, however, ambiguous. We find that the LQAC-model is severely at odds with price data for Norwegian machinery exports also when the pure forward-looking rule is augmented by additional lags of the targeted variable. A conditional equilibrium correction (EqCM) model explains the export price behaviour more accurately. Our findings may rule out a large class of expectations based models and not just the particular LQAC-model in the formation of export prices. We also demonstrate that the EqCM-model performs well post-sample despite that monetary policy in Norway has changed from a fixed to a floating exchange rate regime following a recent introduction of inflation targeting. This regime robustness shows that the Lucas critique lacks force empirically in our case.     

Global expectations and their association with corporate social disclosure practices in Australia, Singapore, and South Korea

This paper explores the social disclosure policies of large Australian, Singaporean, and South Korean multinational corporations. The researchers advanced arguments about why large multinational corporations respond to “global expectations” rather than simply to the expectations of those people residing in the corporation's “home” country. Two large international surveys conducted in 1998 and 1999 are used to determine global expectations. The results of the testing indicate a minimal association between global expectations, as represented by the two surveys, and social disclosure policies of large multinational corporations. Consistent with previous research, country of origin and industry of operation appear to significantly influence disclosure practices.     

Detecting passengers' heterogeneity on airlines’ services using SP data

In this paper, the heterogeneity in passengers' perceptions of airlines' services has been investigated by using a Random Parameter Mixed logit model. To calibrate and validate the proposed model, data from a Stated Preferences choice experiments was used. The survey was conducted online and involved the whole population of the University of Calabria (Italy). The experiments were designed by considering the main service attributes characterizing air travellers’ experience in its entirety: before, during, and after the flight. Differently from the previous studies using Stated Preferences survey, two different groups of choice experiments were designed: the former referring to before/after the flight stages, and the last referring to during the flight experience. For each group, specific attributes were considered.Final findings remark that flyers' perceptions on airline's services vary among the different service aspects and among individuals. Specifically, we found that curtesy of cabin crew, space available, temperature, cleanliness, service on board and ticket cost are attributes referring to the during the flight stage of the travel that showed heterogeneity in passenger's perceptions. On the contrary, the attributes referring to the before/after the flight stages for which we detected heterogeneity in passengers' perceptions are waiting time at check-in, delay of flight departure, and ticket cost.     

基于公众期望的企业社会责任承担方式研究

通过对广东移动公司CSR活动的公众评价调查发现,与公众期望相一致的企业社会责任行为具有较高的知晓度和满意度,公众普遍期望国有企业在突发事件中能及时承担社会责任,并期望相应行为具有持续性;同时,形成品牌的企业社会责任主题能获得较高社会认同。因此,企业应以公众期望的方式承担社会期望,将承担社会责任真正融入企业发展战略,保持社会责任活动主题的持续性和品牌性。     

货币政策透明度、通胀偏差与预期成本

由于预期的形成是需要成本的，本文通过建立一个引入预期成本的简单模型，分析可得信息的开发和处理信息成本之间的权衡关系对货币政策博弈的影响。模型得到两个结论：一是提高货币政策的透明度可以降低通货膨胀率；二是在特定的情况下，越“保守的”中央银行可能会导致更高的通货膨胀。因此，为了减少由动态不一致所导致的通胀偏差，中央银行越保守，就应该越透明。     

The density–satisfaction relationship revisited: The role of scarcity and consumers affective reactions in a crowded retail situation

This article examines how individuals react in crowded utilitarian settings and investigates the specific role of scarcity in the density–dissatisfaction relationship. This paper also highlights the mediating role of affective states (i.e. positive and negative) in determining consumers' satisfaction or dissatisfaction in these contexts. The results suggest that the scarcity of the situation can reduce the extent to which consumers perceive negative experiences in a dense retail situation. In addition, it supports the critical role played by affective states in mediating the relationship between density perceptions and negative reactions. The article provides potential explanations and managerial insights on how managers can deal with crowding in diverse retail and services situations.     

Arenas of expectations for hydrogen technologies

Technological development is often described as an evolutionary process of variation, selection and retention. Different technologies are seen as variations, while the market and other institutions operate as a selection environment. It is less understood, however, how variation and selection relate in the case of emerging technologies. In this paper we introduce the concept of arenas of expectations to examine the relationship between variation and selection processes. Expectations are of particular interest in a pre-market phase of innovation, when performance, cost and other market criteria are less articulated and not stable. In arenas of expectations ‘enactors’ of particular technological variations voice and maintain expectations, while ‘selectors’ will compare and assess the competing claims. We analyse the expectations work of both parties in a case study on metal hydrides for the on-board storage of hydrogen for automotive applications. The paper concludes with a framework of ‘arenas of expectations’ as the linchpin between the processes of variation and selection of emerging technologies.     

适度提高通胀容忍度有利于引导和管理通胀预期

中央银行应当致力于提高货币政策透明度,设置合适的通胀目标,以此引导和管理通胀预期。现阶段经济主体对通货膨胀的容忍度有所提高,适度提高通胀目标能减少频繁的目标偏离,增强中央银行的公信力,提高货币政策的有效性。实证研究表明,4.5%左右和[2%,6%]可以作为现阶段通胀目标值和目标区间的参考值。