A micro view on home equity withdrawal and its determinants: Evidence from Dutch households

For most households, home ownership is the largest wealth component that has become more accessible through innovation and deregulation in mortgage markets. This paper studies the factors driving home equity withdrawal (HEW) at the household level using Dutch survey data. In the Netherlands, house prices were growing fast and mortgage expenses are to a large extent tax deductible. Expectations and perceptions do seem to play an important role in HEW. Withdrawers tend to be more positive about house price developments and – although having lower income – less concerned about their future economic situation. HEW can have a significant impact on both households and the economy, with most of the equity released being reinvested in the housing sector and only a small share used to finance consumption expenditure.     

谁的通胀预期影响了货币政策

本文建立含有通胀预期的前瞻性货币政策反应函数,基于2001年1季度至2014年4季度居民和专家两组通胀预期调研数据,研究中国人民银行决策信息集中是否包含通胀预期变量,以及谁的通胀预期更能影响货币政策。研究表明:(1)央行对居民预期和专家预期均做出显著反应,但对专家预期反应更强:平均而言,专家预期值提高1%,央行当季会降低货币供应量增长率0.4%,拆借利率则上浮0.1%;(2)在长期,央行遵循“逆预期”操作的相机抉择行为模式,表明预期变量是央行决策信息集的重要组成部分;(3)央行对某些机构的预测数据反应较强,其预测信息集可能与央行信息集重合度较高。     

Management training and education in the People's Republic of China

Management education and training is an important means of improving the competence of managerial personnel in any economy, and managerial talent is a necessary condition for successful economic development. From the beginning of the open door policy, the People's Republic of China has recognized this need. However, ideological road-blocks, a rather narrow interpretation of modern management, absence of a consistent national policy on managerial education and training and lack of qualified faculty have stifled the development of managerial talent. The worsening fate of the state-owned enterprises has been linked to a shortage of qualified managerial personnel and that shortage continues to be a key operational concern for foreign companies establishing operations in China. This paper traces and describes the historical development of management education and training in the PRC, and explains the current state of affairs. An analysis of political, structural, policy and attitude issues leads to the conclusion that problems remain which could severely hamper China's continued programme of economic reform.     

Industry and startup experience on entrepreneur forecast performance in new firms

I theoretically develop and empirically investigate the role of industry and startup experience on the forecast performance of 2304 entrepreneurs who have started new businesses. Using the Kauffman Firm Survey I show that industry experience is associated with more accurate and less biased entrepreneur expectations. Further, the benefit of industry experience on entrepreneurial forecast performance is greater in high-technology industries. These findings are consistent with knowledge of the setting informing entrepreneurial decision making, especially in highly uncertain environments. However, in contrast to the prevailing view in the literature, I find no significant evidence that startup experience improves entrepreneurial forecast performance.     

Big Brother is also being watched: Measuring fiscal credibility

Fiscal policy is less credible than monetary policy, due to political economy issues. This paper provides an explicit measure of fiscal credibility, based on the anchoring of private expectations onto official targets. It documents how credibility varied among a sample of 27 European countries over 1995–2019. Credibility behaves like a stock of trust that is affected by fiscal policy, past performance, and institutions (fiscal rules and councils). This paper highlights how regular government communication – budgets and fiscal plans – is crucial to anchor expectations and buttress credibility. Last, it shows that credibility is associated with better sovereign financing conditions. Governments should thus strive to maintain their credibility.     

Tracing emerging irreversibilities in emerging technologies: The case of nanotubes

This paper contributes to the development of methods for mapping and understanding the dynamics of emerging technologies. Our key concept is the notion of irreversibilities that emerge in the ongoing activities of researchers, institutes, policy makers and firms. Emerging irreversibilities denote the first socio-cognitive patterns that decrease the fluidity and openness, and that, eventually constrain and enable future activities. To trace the emerging irreversibilities we focus on the dynamics of expectations and the agenda building processes. A three-level framework is presented to analyse and visualise the dynamics in three interrelated contexts: the level of the research groups, the technological field and the society. This three-level framework allows the analyst to study different perspectives of a specific case and at the same time retain overview of the situation. By applying it to a particular application in nanotechnology, we will show that it is possible to trace the emerged irreversibilities. To conclude, we will discuss how the analysis of early dynamics is a vital ingredient of technology assessment studies that, indirectly (by means of the involved actors), seeks to influence the technological development at stake. By placing the constructive technology assessment (CTA) approach in a historical perspective of technology assessment, we will show the relevance of our method for CTA studies.     

Institutions as knowledge capital: Ludwig M. Lachmann's interpretative institutionalism

This article revisits the socioeconomic theory of the AustrianSchool economist Ludwig M. Lachmann. By showing that the commonclaim that Lachmann's idiosyncratic (i.e., eclectic and multidisciplinary)approach to economics entails nihilism is unfounded, it reachesthe following conclusions. (1) Lachmann held a sophisticatedinstitutional position vis-à-vis economics that anticipateddevelopments in contemporary new institutional economics. (2)Lachmann's sociological and economic reading of institutionsoffers insights for the problem of coordination.     

Chinese model for mass adventure tourism

China has evolved a new domestic model for river-based adventure tourism, a form of passive mass tourism characterised by short trips, in small unguided rafts without paddles, on heavily modified watercourses with exclusive control of access, receiving up to 10,000 clients per site per day. This is very different to international models, which expect much greater individual involvement and responsibility for safety. Client satisfaction is moderate and repeat business low, but the Chinese domestic model nonetheless generates a billion-dollar annual turnover nationwide, with participation to date by around one quarter of China's 18–35 year-olds. This domestic model shapes the expectations of Chinese tourists travelling overseas, with implications for practical safety and satisfaction, and theoretical tests of culture-linked expectation disconfirmation.