Subjective ambiguity, expected utility and Choquet expected utility

Summary. Using the Savage set up, this paper provides a simple axiomatization of the Choquet Expected Utility model where the capacity is an inner measure. Two attractive features of the model are its specificity and the transparency of its axioms. The key axiom states that the decision-maker uses unambiguous acts to approximate ambiguous ones. In addition, the notion of ‘ambiguity’ is subjective and derived from preferences. Received: March 23, 2000; revised version: April 24, 2001     

沿海城市围海造地的综合效应分析与可持续发展

围海造地是沿海域开发利用海洋、拓展海岸带发展空间的重要手段之一,它可以充分利用海洋的空间资源属性,正面效应显著.然而,盲目围海造地的负面效应也是当今世界各国关注的热点问题.本文从沿海城市围海造地的效应分析入手,综合考虑围海造地的利与弊,从社会效益、经济效益和环境效益三个方面抽取主要因素作为评价指标,运用模糊统计的方法构...     

营销人员流失模糊综合评价研究

基于模糊综合评价模型,文章构建企业营销人员流失风险的识别系统,根据销售人员个体价值及流失风险对企业营销人员流失状况进行了分析,报告了企业营销人员流失现状;通过采用人力资源个体价值方法,进行了企业营销人员流失风险调查,反映了企业营销人员管理存在的问题;根据营销人员对企业的贡献差别,确定营销人员流失风险指数;然后,根据营销人员流失风险指数和个体价值指数的关系,将企业营销人员细分为低风险低价值人员、高风险低价值人员、高风险高价值人员和低风险高价值人员四类,并根据企业营销人员细分标准,对不同类别的营销人员制定不同的管理策略,取得营销人员细分定位管理策略的研究成果,从人力资源角度为企业降低营销人员流失率,提高企业的经营效益提供了理论依据。     

Predicting loss given default (LGD) for residential mortgage loans: A two-stage model and empirical evidence for UK bank data

With the implementation of the Basel II regulatory framework, it became increasingly important for financial institutions to develop accurate loss models. This work investigates the loss given default (LGD) of mortgage loans using a large set of recovery data of residential mortgage defaults from a major UK bank. A Probability of Repossession Model and a Haircut Model are developed and then combined to give an expected loss percentage. We find that the Probability of Repossession Model should consist of more than just the commonly used loan-to-value ratio, and that the estimation of LGD benefits from the Haircut Model, which predicts the discount which the sale price of a repossessed property may undergo. This two-stage LGD model is shown to perform better than a single-stage LGD model (which models LGD directly from loan and collateral characteristics), as it achieves a better R² value and matches the distribution of the observed LGD more accurately.     

Harmonic sequence paradox

Summary. Informal evidence suggests that individuals are willing to pay only a finite and, typically, very low price for a specific lottery that converges to an infinite payment with probability one. The established decision theories (expected value, expected utility theory, cumulative prospect theory) cannot satisfactorily explain this low willingness to pay. The presented paradox strengthens the original and the super St. Petersburg paradox.Received: 27 Spetember 2004, Revised: 15 January 2005, JEL Classification Numbers: C91, D81.I am grateful to Peter Wakker, whose suggestions helped to simplify significantly the exposition of the main idea, and to the participants of a brown-bag seminar at CERGE-EI (June 23, 2004, Prague), notably Dirk Engelmann and Andreas Ortmann, who suggested interesting testable explanations for the paradox.     

机构投资者异质性、CEO任期与企业突破式创新

从机构投资者异质性视角出发,深入剖析稳定型机构投资者、交易型机构投资者与企业突破式创新之间的逻辑关系。此外,从既有任期和预期任期两个方面考察CEO任期对上述关系的调节作用。基于2007—2017年中国上市公司经验数据研究发现：稳定型机构投资者能够促进突破式创新,但交易型机构投资者对突破式创新无影响;随着CEO既有(预期)任期延长(缩短),稳定型机构投资者对突破式创新的促进作用随之减弱。     

最优货币政策规则的选择及在我国的应用

本文首先根据我国的实际数据 ,建立和估计混合型模型 ,并以此作为研究货币政策规则的基本框架。然后在随机模拟的基础上 ,以社会福利为基准 ,计算和比较三种货币政策决策方式对社会福利的影响 ,这三种决策方式是完全承诺的最优货币政策规则、最优的Taylor规则及相机抉择。同时计算与福利损失等价的通胀率变化 ,结果表明 ,最优的Taylor规则能够很好地近似完全承诺的最优货币政策规则 ,这为进一步改进我国货币政策的决策和操作提供了一个指导方向。其次 ,对我国目前的货币政策决策和操作存在的问题进行分析 ,特别是对目前我国盯住货币供应量的体制所存在的问题进行分析 ,并提出改进的方案