沿海城市围海造地的综合效应分析与可持续发展

围海造地是沿海域开发利用海洋、拓展海岸带发展空间的重要手段之一,它可以充分利用海洋的空间资源属性,正面效应显著.然而,盲目围海造地的负面效应也是当今世界各国关注的热点问题.本文从沿海城市围海造地的效应分析入手,综合考虑围海造地的利与弊,从社会效益、经济效益和环境效益三个方面抽取主要因素作为评价指标,运用模糊统计的方法构...     

Harmonic sequence paradox

Summary. Informal evidence suggests that individuals are willing to pay only a finite and, typically, very low price for a specific lottery that converges to an infinite payment with probability one. The established decision theories (expected value, expected utility theory, cumulative prospect theory) cannot satisfactorily explain this low willingness to pay. The presented paradox strengthens the original and the super St. Petersburg paradox.Received: 27 Spetember 2004, Revised: 15 January 2005, JEL Classification Numbers: C91, D81.I am grateful to Peter Wakker, whose suggestions helped to simplify significantly the exposition of the main idea, and to the participants of a brown-bag seminar at CERGE-EI (June 23, 2004, Prague), notably Dirk Engelmann and Andreas Ortmann, who suggested interesting testable explanations for the paradox.     

机构投资者异质性、CEO任期与企业突破式创新

从机构投资者异质性视角出发,深入剖析稳定型机构投资者、交易型机构投资者与企业突破式创新之间的逻辑关系。此外,从既有任期和预期任期两个方面考察CEO任期对上述关系的调节作用。基于2007—2017年中国上市公司经验数据研究发现：稳定型机构投资者能够促进突破式创新,但交易型机构投资者对突破式创新无影响;随着CEO既有(预期)任期延长(缩短),稳定型机构投资者对突破式创新的促进作用随之减弱。     

最优货币政策规则的选择及在我国的应用

本文首先根据我国的实际数据 ,建立和估计混合型模型 ,并以此作为研究货币政策规则的基本框架。然后在随机模拟的基础上 ,以社会福利为基准 ,计算和比较三种货币政策决策方式对社会福利的影响 ,这三种决策方式是完全承诺的最优货币政策规则、最优的Taylor规则及相机抉择。同时计算与福利损失等价的通胀率变化 ,结果表明 ,最优的Taylor规则能够很好地近似完全承诺的最优货币政策规则 ,这为进一步改进我国货币政策的决策和操作提供了一个指导方向。其次 ,对我国目前的货币政策决策和操作存在的问题进行分析 ,特别是对目前我国盯住货币供应量的体制所存在的问题进行分析 ,并提出改进的方案     

Is anticipation delicious? Visceral factors as mediators of the effect of olfactory cues on purchase intentions

In examining the way olfactory cues influence consumer behavior, this paper pays special attention to the crucial role of visceral factors — generally defined as ‘hot’ overwhelming urges driven by sexual lust, thirst, or hunger. Our investigation is limited to hunger driven visceral impulses, which we call ‘appetitive motivational drive states’. The results indicate that food aroma indirectly influences purchase intentions through the mediation of appetitive drive states such as taste anticipation, subjective expected pleasure, and taste enjoyment. Structural equation modeling demonstrated that food aroma as the predictor variable first activates taste anticipation, which plays a pivotal role in stimulating both subjective expected pleasure and taste enjoyment. Implications for marketing theory and industry practice are also discussed in light of the fact that visceral states can exert an unwelcome influence on purchase intentions and eating behavior.     

宏观经济调控执行绩效的一个数量评价:1985～2005年

有效实施宏观经济调控是各国政府的一个中心职能,其目的在于熨平经济周期波动,维持经济总量大体平衡,从而为市场有效配置资源,实现经济的长期增长创造有利条件。客观评价宏观经济调控的执行绩效有助于政策当局反思政策制定过程中的不适当行为,不断改进宏观经济管理水平,从而更好地实现政策目标。在本文中,我们忽略宏观经济调控政策的内部构成,视其为一个整体,基于政策当局的损失函数,设计了一个新的模型框架,对宏观经济调控执行绩效进行数量评价。     

What drives corporate default risk premia? Evidence from the CDS market

This article studies the economic factors behind corporate default risk premia in Europe during the period 2006–2010. We employ information embedded in Credit Default Swap (CDS) contracts to quantify expected excess returns from the underlying bonds in market-wide default circumstances. We disentangle the compensation to investors for unexpected changes in the creditworthiness of the bond issuer from their remuneration for the risk that the bond's price will drop in the event of default. Our results show that the risk premia associated with systematic factors influencing default arrivals represent approximately 40% of total CDS spread (on median). These premia also exhibit a strong source of commonality; a single principal component explains approximately 88% of their joint variability. This factor significantly covaries with aggregate illiquidity and sovereign risk variables. Empirical evidence suggests a public-to-private risk transfer between sovereign credit spread and corporate risk premia. Finally, the compensation in the event of default is approximately 14 basis points of the total CDS spread, and a significant amount of jump-at-default risk may not be diversifiable.