Which are the SIFIs? A Component Expected Shortfall approach to systemic risk

This paper proposes a component approach to systemic risk which allows to decompose the risk of the aggregate financial system (measured by Expected Shortfall) while accounting for the firm characteristics. Developed by analogy with the Component Value-at-Risk concept, our new systemic risk measure, called Component ES, presents several advantages. It is a hybrid measure, which combines the Too Interconnected To Fail and the Too Big To Fail logics. CES relies only on publicly available daily data and encompasses the popular Marginal ES measure. CES can be used to assess the contribution of a firm to systemic risk at a precise date but also to forecast its contribution over a certain period. The empirical application verifies the ability of CES to identify the most systemically risky firms during the 2007–2009 financial crisis. We show that our measure identifies the institutions labeled as SIFIs by the Financial Stability Board.     

我国发展“绿色保险”的经济学分析

本文从经济学的角度阐述了在我国发展"绿色保险"不仅有利于环境外部不经济的内部化和分散风险补偿损失,而且有利于社会可持续发展目标的实现和拓宽我国保险业的发展空间。     

突发信源模型存在的问题及其改进

在ＡＴＭ网络的流量控制问题的研究中，突发信源模型是一种被广泛采用的信源分析模型，然而，目前常用的突发信源模型并不完善，以致常常实际的队列分析。为此，本文提出了一种改进的突发信源模型，这种改进的模型不仅在理论上更加完善，而且更与情况相吻合。     

基于工艺改进的高效电机损耗降低研究

结合高效效率的检测,从降低电机总损耗的角度,分别针对定子铜耗、铁耗、转子铜耗、杂散耗、机械耗提出电机生产工艺的改进措施,经生产实践证明能有效降低高效电机的损耗,有效提高了电机的能效水平。     

Factors affecting couples' decisions to jointly shop

This paper explores the factors that influence individuals' decisions to jointly shop. Drawing from qualitative interviews and relevant theories, the researchers present a model of couple's likelihood of joint shopping. The model includes utilitarian motives (product purchase relevance and perceived financial risk), hedonic motives (expected shopping pleasure with one's partner), and a situational motive (time availability), along with two moderators (gender and relationship length). Online survey respondents answer questions relative to an experimental scenario involving the purchase of furniture or electronics. Results indicate that while all variables studied are influential, expected shopping pleasure and relevance of the purchase to both parties are the most influential aspects in the decision to shop together. Additionally, for males perceived financial risk has a stronger effect on their decision to jointly shop than it does for females.     

Determinants and implications of crop production loss: An empirical exploration using ordered probit analysis

This study investigates farmers’ perception about the severity of loss for three rice crops, identifies their determinants and explores policy implications based on findings. This research employs an ordered probit model to data collected from 1800 farm households from drought-prone and groundwater depleted areas of Bangladesh. This is the first study of its kind.Severity of rice production loss, while differing across all three rice crops, was higher for rain-fed crops. This was broadly consistent with available independent evidence. Geophysical factors, household characteristics, institutional and market accessibility, and household adaptation strategy were key determinants of crop loss. The impact of these factors was specific to the crop and severity of loss.This study has several policy implications involving market, R & D and institutional support based options. Strengthening support systems for institutional and market accessibility, and science driven climate change adaptation strategy including generation and wider dissemination of drought tolerant rice varieties, and enhancing farmers’ capacity to change rice varieties on a regular basis, constitute key areas for policy intervention.     

Credit portfolios: What defines risk horizons and risk measurement?

The strong autocorrelation between economic cycles demands that we analyze credit portfolio risk in a multiperiod setup. We embed a standard one-factor model in such a setup. We discuss the calibration of the model to Standard & Poor’s ratings data in detail. But because single-period risk measures cannot capture the cumulative effects of systematic shocks over several periods, we define an alternative risk measure, which we call the time-conditional expected shortfall (TES), to quantify credit portfolio risk over a multiperiod horizon.     

Subjective ambiguity, expected utility and Choquet expected utility

Summary. Using the Savage set up, this paper provides a simple axiomatization of the Choquet Expected Utility model where the capacity is an inner measure. Two attractive features of the model are its specificity and the transparency of its axioms. The key axiom states that the decision-maker uses unambiguous acts to approximate ambiguous ones. In addition, the notion of ‘ambiguity’ is subjective and derived from preferences. Received: March 23, 2000; revised version: April 24, 2001     

金融稳定是否应纳入中国货币政策目标——基于混频IS-Phillips模型的实证分析

文章首先使用混频动态因子模型（MF-DFM），构建中国首个混频金融稳定指数（MF-FSI），接着把MF-FSI作为金融稳定的代理变量，使用文章新构建的混频IS-Phillips模型，比较分析纳入与不纳入金融稳定的中国货币政策损失函数差异，最后对货币政策目标选择和时效选择进行了敏感性分析，实证分析表明：（1）中国混频金融稳定指数是金融稳定的一个实时性有效测度指标；（2）中国货币政策目标应纳入金融稳定，以减少货币政策福利损失；（3）无论中国货币政策目标偏好和预期偏好怎样变化，央行都应给予金融稳定固定且不可忽略的关注度，但物价稳定和经济增长仍为主要货币政策目标。     

Forecasting extreme financial risk: A score-driven approach

This paper develops a new class of dynamic models for forecasting extreme financial risk. This class of models is driven by the score of the conditional distribution with respect to both the duration between extreme events and the magnitude of these events. It is shown that the models are a feasible method for modeling the time-varying arrival intensity and magnitude of extreme events. It is also demonstrated how exogenous variables such as realized measures of volatility can easily be incorporated. An empirical analysis based on a set of major equity indices shows that both the arrival intensity and the size of extreme events vary greatly during times of market turmoil. The proposed framework performs well relative to competing approaches in forecasting extreme tail risk measures.