基于纳税遵从理论的纳税遵从影响因素分析

提高纳税遵从度是稳定国家税收的重要保障,分析影响纳税遵从的因素,有助于提高纳税遵从度。本文从国内外研究纳税遵从的理论入手,从预期理论、前景理论、公共物品理论、公平理论、信息经济学、新公共管理主义、新制度经济学几个方面,找出影响纳税遵从的各项因素。     

Impact of metal silos on households’ maize storage,storage losses and food security: An application of a propensity score matching

Maize is the most important food staple in Eastern and Southern Africa, with a highly seasonal production but relatively constant consumption over the year. Farmers have to store maize to bridge seasons, for food security and to protect against price fluctuations. However, the traditional storage methods do not protect grain well, resulting in large postharvest losses. Hermetically sealed metal silos kill storage pests by oxygen deprivation without pesticides. Popular in Central America, they are now being promoted in Africa, but their impact here has not yet been studied. This study used propensity score matching to evaluate the impact of metal silos on duration of maize storage, loss abatement, cost of storage, and household food security. Metal silo adopters (N = 116) were matched with non-adopting farmers from a representative sample of 1340 households covering the major maize-growing zones in Kenya. The major effect of the metal silos was an almost complete elimination of losses due to insect pests, saving farmers an average of 150–200 kg of grain, worth KSh9750 (US$130). Metal silo adopters also spent about KSh340 less on storage insecticides. Adopters were able to store their maize for 1.8–2.4 months longer, and to sell their surplus after five months at good prices, instead of having to sell right after the harvest. The period of inadequate food provision among adopters was reduced by more than one month. We conclude that metal silos are effective in reducing grain losses due to maize-storage insects, and that they have a large impact on the welfare and food security of farm households. The initial cost of metal silos is high (KSh20,000/1.8 ton) and therefore policies to increase access to credit, to reduce the cost of sheet metal, and to promote collective action can improve their uptake by smallholder farmers.     

新巴塞尔资本协议与商业银行操作风险管理

操作风险正日益成为全球银行业风险管理的研究焦点。新巴塞尔协议将操作风险纳入风险管理框架，为其设定新的资本要求。目前我国的商业银行缺乏风险意识，尤其是在操作风险方面基本没有什么量化操作风险的科学方法，不能正确反映所承受的风险，操作风险的管理水平亟待提高。本文首先对操作风险进行界定，分析其主要特点，之后从国际和国内两方面对操作风险现状进行考察，阐述了新巴塞尔协议中操作风险的计量方法并对其进行评述，最后介绍了操作风险管理流程，并对我国商业银行操作风险管理的策略选择提出建议。     

引进外资的得与失问题研究

在具体分析引进外资的积极作用和存在问题、弊病的基础上,对如何提高引进外资的质量和效益、实现共赢;防止跨国公司垄断和控制我国经济命脉、防止＂洋腐败＂泛滥、防止跨国公司违规污染环境;我国金融机构和企业要吸取广国投破产倒闭的教训,必须要十分审慎有效地利用外资、严控我国优质企业到境外上市等问题提出了十一条看法与建议。     

Quantiles as optimal point forecasts

Loss functions play a central role in the theory and practice of forecasting. If the loss function is quadratic, the mean of the predictive distribution is the unique optimal point predictor. If the loss is symmetric piecewise linear, any median is an optimal point forecast. Quantiles arise as optimal point forecasts under a general class of economically relevant loss functions, which nests the asymmetric piecewise linear loss, and which we refer to as generalized piecewise linear (GPL). The level of the quantile depends on a generic asymmetry parameter which reflects the possibly distinct costs of underprediction and overprediction. Conversely, a loss function for which quantiles are optimal point forecasts is necessarily GPL. We review characterizations of this type in the work of Thomson, Saerens and Komunjer, and relate to proper scoring rules, incentive-compatible compensation schemes and quantile regression. In the empirical part of the paper, the relevance of decision theoretic guidance in the transition from a predictive distribution to a point forecast is illustrated using the Bank of England’s density forecasts of United Kingdom inflation rates, and probabilistic predictions of wind energy resources in the Pacific Northwest.     

Consumption paths under prospect utility in an optimal growth model

This paper studies the Cass-Koopmans-Ramsey model of optimal economic growth in the presence of loss aversion and habit formation. The representative agent's preferences for consumption can be gradually varied between the standard constant intertemporal elasticity of substitution (CIES) case and Kahneman and Tversky's prospect utility. We find that the transitional dynamics of optimal consumption paths differ distinctly from the standard model, in particular consumption smoothing is more pronounced. We also show that prospect utility can cause the economy to remain in a steady state with low consumption and low capital.     

推迟退休年龄和延迟领取基本养老金年龄可行吗——来自广东省在职职工预期退休年龄的经验证据

推迟退休年龄、延迟领取养老金年龄的主要影响群体是在职职工,本文使用广东省21个地市对在职职工的问卷调查数据,探索该政策能否可行的经验证据。结果显示,男职工选择在55岁之前退休的占55%,女职工选择在50岁之前退休的占41.2%,表明在职职工存在明显的提前退休倾向,推迟退休并不符合在职职工预期。OrdinalLogistic回归表明参加养老金制度年数对男女职工预期退休年龄的影响均显著为负,表明参加养老金制度越久,预期退休年龄越早;Binary Logistic回归也证实参加养老金制度年数越久,提前退休可能性越大。实证结果说明基本养老保险制度不能激励职工推迟退休、延迟领取养老金。为此,本文提出了对应的四点改革建议。     

我国集合信托产品预期收益率的影响因素及市场风险评价——基于SVAR-GARCH-M模型与因子分析法的实证研究

本文基于SVAR-GARCH-M模型,利用因子分析法对我国集合信托产品预期收益率的影响因素及其面临的市场风险进行测度。研究发现:我国集合信托产品预期收益率是以债券回购利率为基准,并随国内价格水平的变动进行调整,以维持真实收益的稳定性;我国集合信托产品预期收益率对市场风险表现出较高的敏感度,在各类风险因素中,由宏观经济形势变化所引发的融资成本上升风险占主导地位,信托公司资金运用的方式也会引致相应的风险,但与宏观风险因素相比,该类风险因素所占的权重相对较小。     

期望落差与互联网新创企业狙击型国际化——基于资源条件与市场环境二元情境视角

互联网新创企业国际化战略目标及实施路径独具特色，逐渐成为研究热点。以北京小桔科技有限公司为案例对象，基于业绩反馈理论和前景理论，构建“期望落差-二元情境-狙击型国际化”的研究框架，系统揭示互联网新创企业狙击型国际化行为及实现机制。研究发现：期望落差促使互联网新创企业实施狙击型国际化战略，资源条件与市场环境二元情境在其中具有调节作用，即在资源劣势-市场壁垒高情境下采取“组合拳”模式的狙击型国际化，在资源劣势-市场壁垒低情境下采取界内合作模式的狙击型国际化，在资源优势-市场壁垒高情境下采取跨界协作模式的狙击型国际化，在资源优势-市场壁垒低情境下采取市场控制模式的狙击型国际化。     

Testing loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity in review sentiment

This article analyzes the relationship between ratings and review sentiment by introducing, for the first time, the tenets of prospect theory. Specifically, we test loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity on a sample of 132,486 reviews and find that: first, negative deviations in ratings (receiving a service with worse performance than expected) bring about a higher impact on review sentiment than positive deviations of equal magnitude (receiving a service with better performance than expected), thus, confirming loss aversion; and second, regardless of whether the service received is better or worse than expected, variations in ratings closer to the reference point result in higher marginal impacts on sentiment than equivalent variations further away from the reference point, thus, proving diminishing sensitivity. These results have relevant theoretical implications related to the use of relative vs absolute measures and the cognitive bias involved, and managerial implications linked to meeting expectations and service recovery.