意识形态对企业家人力资本的影响路径——以广东温氏食品集团为例

意识形态是社会存在反映,也是一种重要的非正式制度。在回顾意识形态与企业家关系的相关理论的基础上,分析意识形态对企业家人力资本的影响路径。研究认为,意识形态对企业家人力资本的影响也由此可依次分为三个阶段：企业家对意识形态感知的认识阶段;企业家理性判断是否将共有意识形态纳入已有认知结构的评价阶段;共有的意识形态转化为个性化意识形态的实现阶段。论文结合广东温氏集团案例,揭示意识形态影响企业家人力资本的阶段性路径特征,提出针对意识形态对企业家人力资本影响的阶段性特点的阶段性战略,认识阶段增强企业家角色偏好,评价阶段降低企业家对意识形态判断的交易成本,实现阶段打造企业家声誉等,以期从而促进企业家人力资本提升。     

New standard regulations regarding allocation to the safety reserve in Sweden

Abstract

This paper describes a statistical investigation of observed loss ratios and run-offs for a number of Swedish insurance companies within different lines of business. The main aim of the investigation was to revise existing upper limits for allocation to the so-called safety reserve, which is an untaxed contingency reserve. The effort was successful in that new rules were established by the Swedish Supervisory Authority in accordance with the results of the investigation. This paper also contains an exposition of the general principles underlying the Swedish safety reserve.     

场外衍生交易主协议提前终止金额计算问题研究

本文以ISDA主协议中的提前终止金额计算条款为主要分析对象,结合2008年发生的雷曼系公司破产事件及其他典型案例,论证了1992年版ISDA协议项下市场报价法(国内银行所签ISDA协议基本都约定以该方法计算提前终止金额)和损失法存在的重大缺陷,以及向2002年版ISDA协议项下终止款项法过渡的必然性,并对国内银行今后应如何处理ISDA协议和NAFMII协议项下的提前终止金额计算问题提出了政策建议。     

推迟退休年龄和延迟领取基本养老金年龄可行吗——来自广东省在职职工预期退休年龄的经验证据

推迟退休年龄、延迟领取养老金年龄的主要影响群体是在职职工,本文使用广东省21个地市对在职职工的问卷调查数据,探索该政策能否可行的经验证据。结果显示,男职工选择在55岁之前退休的占55%,女职工选择在50岁之前退休的占41.2%,表明在职职工存在明显的提前退休倾向,推迟退休并不符合在职职工预期。OrdinalLogistic回归表明参加养老金制度年数对男女职工预期退休年龄的影响均显著为负,表明参加养老金制度越久,预期退休年龄越早;Binary Logistic回归也证实参加养老金制度年数越久,提前退休可能性越大。实证结果说明基本养老保险制度不能激励职工推迟退休、延迟领取养老金。为此,本文提出了对应的四点改革建议。     

我国集合信托产品预期收益率的影响因素及市场风险评价——基于SVAR-GARCH-M模型与因子分析法的实证研究

本文基于SVAR-GARCH-M模型,利用因子分析法对我国集合信托产品预期收益率的影响因素及其面临的市场风险进行测度。研究发现:我国集合信托产品预期收益率是以债券回购利率为基准,并随国内价格水平的变动进行调整,以维持真实收益的稳定性;我国集合信托产品预期收益率对市场风险表现出较高的敏感度,在各类风险因素中,由宏观经济形势变化所引发的融资成本上升风险占主导地位,信托公司资金运用的方式也会引致相应的风险,但与宏观风险因素相比,该类风险因素所占的权重相对较小。     

Risk forecasting in (T)GARCH models with uncorrelated dependent innovations

(G)ARCH-type models are frequently used for the dynamic modelling and forecasting of risk attached to speculative asset returns. While the symmetric and conditionally Gaussian GARCH model has been generalized in a manifold of directions, model innovations are mostly presumed to stem from an underlying IID distribution. For a cross section of 18 stock market indices, we notice that (threshold) (T)GARCH-implied model innovations are likely at odds with the commonly held IID assumption. Two complementary strategies are pursued to evaluate the conditional distributions of consecutive TGARCH innovations, a non-parametric approach and a class of standardized copula distributions. Modelling higher order dependence patterns is found to improve standard TGARCH-implied conditional value-at-risk and expected shortfall out-of-sample forecasts that rely on the notion of IID innovations.     

Expected shortfall estimation for apparently infinite-mean models of operational risk

Statistical analyses on actual data depict operational risk as an extremely heavy-tailed phenomenon, able to generate losses so extreme as to suggest the use of infinite-mean models. But no loss can actually destroy more than the entire value of a bank or of a company, and this upper bound should be considered when dealing with tail-risk assessment. Introducing what we call the dual distribution, we show how to deal with heavy-tailed phenomena with a remote yet finite upper bound. We provide methods to compute relevant tail quantities such as the Expected Shortfall, which is not available under infinite-mean models, allowing adequate provisioning and capital allocation. This also permits a measurement of fragility. The main difference between our approach and a simple truncation is in the smoothness of the transformation between the original and the dual distribution. Our methodology is useful with apparently infinite-mean phenomena, as in the case of operational risk, but it can be applied in all those situations involving extreme fat tails and bounded support.     

Differentiable von Neumann-Morgenstern utility

Summary. Differentiability is a convenient property of von Neumann-Morgenstern utility functions which is almost always imposed but has not been translated into behavioral terms. In applications, expected utility is usually maximized subject to a constraint, and the maximization is carried out by differentiating the utility function. This paper presents two sets of necessary and sufficient conditions for a risk averse von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function to be differentiable. The first of them is formulated in terms of the equivalent risk premia of small gambles. It says, in brief, that the equivalent risk premium is of a smaller order of magnitude than the risk itself, as measured by the expectation of the absolute value of the risk. The second set of necessary and sufficient conditions is formulated in terms of the probability premium of small lotteries. It says, essentially, that the probability premium for small binary lotteries goes to zero as the size of the lottery goes to zero. Received: May 11, 1997; revised version: May 14, 1998     

上市商业银行贷款拨备计提发展方向研究

银行作为经营风险的企业,前瞻性地计提贷款准备金具有必然性。银行风险管理的前瞻性和预见性越来越成为衡量一家商业银行市场竞争能力、抵御金融风险能力的重要指标。巴塞尔新资本协议(BaselⅡ)从资本监管的角度对商业银行信贷资产信用风险损失的评估方法进行了规范。本文从国内外上市商业银行自身风险管理的角度出发,通过目前会计标准和监管标准的简要对比,对其贷款拨备计提的发展方向提出了建议,并力求通过二者关键因素的分析,从而建议商业银行有可能在实施BaselⅡ和会计准则过程中找到一个兼容并蓄的应用方案。