论体验经济时代教育旅游产品的开发

体验经济时代的来临要求我们用全新的视角来看待旅游业。笔者在分析了体验经济和旅游业关系的基础上,提出了教育旅游的体验化趋势,并着重探讨了教育旅游产品的开发。     

一种基于MCMC稳态模拟的贝叶斯索赔校正模型

Btihlmann模型是贝叶斯方法在经验费率厘定中最为著名的应用，然而该模型在结构参数先验信息不足的情况下，并不能得出参数的无偏后验估计。本文针对传统方法的不足，运用基于MCMC模拟的贝叶斯方法对历史数据进行校正，通过Gibbs抽样构造出一种多层Poisson模型稳态分布的马尔可夫链，动态模拟出索赔频率的后验分布以及缺失参数值的后验估计，改进了传统的索赔校正模型，提高了计算的精度。利用WinBUGS软件包进行建模分析，证明了该模型的直观性与有效性。     

稳步推进人民币汇率制度改革——结合国际经验的探讨

为了保持国民经济稳定快速增长，为了给金融改革创造适当的外部环境，为了应对较大规模的“货币错配”风险，为了防止“日元升值综合症”在中国重演，人民币汇率弹性化改革应当采用渐进方式。这个过程中，为了有效抵御国际投机资本冲击，中国应采用由公开宣布的管理浮动汇率制度、着眼于汇率稳定的频繁外汇市场干预、规模较大的外汇储备组合而成的“三位一体”政策组合；为有效控制汇率风险，中国还应加强针对货币错配的资拳项目管制和审慎监管。     

Modeling firm specific internationalization risk: An application to banks’ risk assessment in lending to firms that do international business

Drawing on internationalization process theory, we develop a new model for firm-specific internationalization risk assessment. The model shows that firm-specific internationalization risks can be determined from a firm's experiences and from current business activities in a firm's network. Experiential risks are categorized as international, country market, network, or relationship experience risks. Risk assessment in current network activities can be determined from a firm's dependency on a network and from the network's performance and evolution. We apply our model to credit risk assessment by banks and other credit institutions. This article adds to research on financial institutions’ credit risk assessment by focusing on firm-specific internationalization risk assessment, an area that has previously received little attention in the literature. In addition, this article provides a better understanding of risk assessment in the internationalization process, shedding light not only on the risks involved in firms’ commitment to internationalization but also on the risks that banks and other institutions take when they commit by lending to internationalizing firms.     

Novelty: A mechanism of tourists’ enjoyment

Novelty, conceptualized as the experience of something new and different from the everyday, is widely believed to be what defines tourism experiences and makes them enjoyable. The present study tests the mediating effect of novelty on positive emotions in two longitudinal data sets based on daily psychometric diaries. Findings show that the effect of tourism experience on positive emotions is indeed partly mediated by novelty. The mediation effect is similar for average positive emotions as well as for the emotion of interest, suggesting that novelty sparks positive emotions through goal congruence more than by directly triggering interest. Findings affirm that novelty is indeed fundamental and enjoyable in the tourism experience.     

Inspection,testing errors and trade in tainted products

This paper examines international trade and inspection involving tainted products in a model of quality choice, facing fears that globalization is the cause of numerous food incidents. Particularly, we ask the following questions: (i) What are the conditions under which foreign firms choose to produce tainted goods? (ii) Does globalization via freer trade lower product safety? (iii) Why are goods imported even though they are known to be harmful? We show the existence of a free trade Nash equilibrium characterized by production and trade of high-quality non-tainted products. However, free trade cannot prevent the export of tainted goods, because the foreign firm may deviate under different combinations of parameters. We identify self-correcting mechanisms such as nationalism and a political-economy re-allocation of public resources in favor of customs authorities. Nevertheless, we also uncover activities that exacerbate tainted production like errors of testing and sabotage by rival firms.     

Staying ahead and getting even: Risk attitudes of experienced poker players

Frequent online poker players with extensive experience calculating probabilities and expected values might be expected to behave as Expected Utility maximizers, in that small shocks to their wealth would not affect risk preferences (Rabin, 2000). By contrast, reference-dependent loss aversion (as in Prospect Theory) (Koszegi and Rabin, 2006, Kahneman and Tversky, 1979) predicts that risk aversion decreases as wealth moves away from the reference point in either direction. In terms of continuing to play, as well as a more aggressive playing style, we find strong evidence for the break-even effect, the increased pursuit of risk as a player is losing within a session. Players' behavior also appears consistent with existing evidence on reference-dependent labor supply, in their tendency to reduce effort and risk-taking in response to being ahead. Our findings provide evidence for reference-dependent behavior in a flexible, high-skilled setting, under conditions of well-understood monetary risk.     

Co-creating brands: Diagnosing and designing the relationship experience

The traditional goods-dominant logic of marketing is under challenge and leading researchers are now emphasizing the new service-dominant logic [Vargo, S.L., Lusch, R.F., Evolving to a new dominant logic for marketing. J Mark 2004; 68 (1): 1-17.]. One of the key foundational propositions of this logic is the customer as “always being a co-creator of value” where “the brand becomes the experience” [Prahalad, C.K., The co-creation of value. J Mark 2004; 68 (1): 23.]. In this paper, the authors examine the concept of brand relationship experience in the context of co-creation and service-dominant logic and outline a conceptual model for designing and managing the customer experience. Case study research illustrates how this model helps in the design and management of the brand relationship experience for an innovative new product.     

旅游购物顾客价值分析与顾客价值链构建——基于体验视角

旅游购物是旅游活动的重要组成部分,游客在旅游购物中获取的价值对旅游活动的整体价值感知具有很大影响。本文基于体验视角,将旅游购物顾客价值解析为实用性价值、情感性价值、社会性价值和体验性价值四个维度,并在此基础上构建了旅游购物顾客价值链,指出体验活动是其中的关键环节。     

Money in a “Safe” place: Money anthropomorphism increases saving behavior

Saving has an important impact on consumers’ lives and life satisfaction. However, various indices indicate that consumers do not save enough. This research shows that a simple change in the perception of money by imposing humanlike characteristics (i.e., money anthropomorphism) can significantly increase savings. Specifically, we posit that imbuing money with humanlike characteristics can enhance both saving intention and real saving behavior because humanized money is considered to be capable of experiences such as pain or joy (perception of experiences) and, as a result, is more vulnerable and in need of protection (perception of vulnerability). By inserting money clipart or using first-perception language to describe money, we manipulate money anthropomorphism in six studies. In behavioral studies, we show that these money anthropomorphism manipulations increase real saving behavior by 18%. In addition, several alternative accounts, including warmth perception of money, autonomy toward money, perceived control over money, feeling guilty about spending money, and perceived importance of money, are ruled out. Furthermore, the results show that when the target account to keep money is considered risky, the positive money anthropomorphism on saving disappears. The findings provide important and practical implications for increasing personal savings.