外贸顺差、贸易筛选与就业关系研究——基于月度数据的再检验

本文利用2001-2009年的对外贸易月度数据,考察了中国出口与外贸顺差对就业水平的影响。研究表明,在暂时不考虑进口的情况下,出口规模的扩大对就业依然产生正向冲击;但是考虑进口后,外贸顺差的就业效应却呈现出先促进后抑制的效应。因此,传统的菲利普斯曲线机制认为的外贸顺差促进就业的观点可能需要重新修正,而Helpman等提出的"贸易筛选"机制在中国当前的外贸顺差规模下,将在劳动力市场上发挥主要作用。鉴于此,中国应在进一步提高出口规模和质量的同时,重视进口对经济发展的促进作用,将外贸顺差规模控制在合理范围。     

公积金制度对上海住房市场发展的影响研究

为研究住房公积金制度在上海住房市场发展过程中的作用,笔者通过运用状态空间模型与卡尔曼滤波解法的实证分析认为,住房公积金制度对上海市住房市场的量价都有很大的影响。在有力提高了居民住房消费能力的同时,也是助推房价泡沫化的一个重要因素,这种助推力主要源于政府拆迁。因此目前的房地产调控政策应该进行微调,以充分发挥公积金制度的积极作用和抑制其不利影响,进一步完善我国的住房保障体系。     

我国产业结构调整对外部财富的影响机制研究

为研究我国产业结构调整对外部财富的作用影响及其影响机制,本文从贸易传导渠道及金融传导渠道出发,建立理论模型,分析并阐述了双渠道传导下,产业结构调整影响外部财富的作用机理,同时运用时变参数状态空间模型进一步验证。研究结果表明,我国产业结构调整通过贸易传导渠道对外部财富起正向积累作用,并从金融传导渠道对外部财富进行负向削减,两者存在抵消效应。且我国第二产业产值比及第三、二产业产值比的扩大对外部财富存在区别影响。当下正处于全球产业链重构关键时期,本文期望从调整外部财富角度助力于我国产业结构的优化。     

基于自适应相关滤波器的人眼定位改进方法

人眼定位是人脸识别、视觉跟踪系统中一个关键步骤。针对传统人眼定位方法定位精度低、误差稳定性差的问题,提出将自适应相关滤波器与灰度积分投影法相结合,在训练和测试阶段做了两点改进。首先对训练得到的自适应相关滤波器,在\[-0.2,-0.1,0,0.1,0.2\]角度范围内旋转得到5个滤波器,选择灰度最大值对应的位置作为初始定位点,然后在该定位点的5×5邻域内,水平和垂直方向分别做灰度积分投影,最后选择积分最小值的位置作为最终的目标定位点。与平均合成精确滤波器、最小输出平方误差和滤波器、自适应合成相关滤波器算法相比,改进算法的定位精度最大提高2.9%,平均绝对误差和标准差均低于原始算法。实验结果表明,提出的改进算法在定位精度和稳定性上均优于以上算法。     

The consequence of possessions: Self-identity,extended self,psychological ownership and probabilities of purchase for pet’s fashion clothing

This research attempts to exemplify whether pets ascribed as possessions can be regarded, as part of our selves, i.e., a metaphoric relationship with pets, by examining the dynamic relationship between beliefs, extended self, self-identity concerning possessions, and psychological ownership.This study extends the literature by developing a conceptual model asserting that probabilities of purchase for pets, in particular, are contingent on possessions and the extended self. A sample of 326 pet owners was selected, and by using SEM, the direct and indirect relationships were explored. Self-identity and beliefs were significantly associated with psychological control and the extended self, however, beliefs were negatively related to the probabilities of purchase. The extended self and the psychological ownership demonstrated mediating relationships. The study contributes to an understanding of the theoretical relationship between the role of possessions and provides scholars and retail practitioners with an understanding of probabilities of purchase for pet fashions.     

Dissecting interbank risk using basis swap spreads

This paper analyses interbank risk using the information content of basis swap (BS) spreads, floating-to-floating interest rate swaps whose payments are associated with euro deposit rates for alternative tenors. To identify the impact of shocks affecting interbank risk, we propose an empirical model that decomposes BS quotes into their expected and unexpected components. These unobservable constituents of BS spreads are estimated by solving a signal extraction problem using a particle filter. We find that expected components covariate with aggregate liquidity and risk aversion while systemic risk arises as the main driver behind unexpected fluctuations. Our empirical findings suggest that macroprudential analysis emerges as a key device to ease asset pricing in a new multi-curve scenario.     

Nowcasting China’s GDP Using a Bayesian Approach

Real time nowcasting is an assessment of current-quarter GDP from timely released economic and financial series before the GDP figure is disseminated. Providing a reliable current quarter nowcast in real time based on the most recently released economic and financial monthly data is crucial for central banks to make policy decisions and longer-term forecasting exercises. In this study, we use dynamic factor models to bridge monthly information with quarterly GDP and achieve reduction in the dimensionality of the monthly data. We develop a Bayesian approach to provide a way to deal with the unbalanced features of the dataset and to estimate latent common factors. We demonstrate the validity of our approach through simulation studies, and explore the applicability of our approach through an empirical study in nowcasting the China’s GDP using 117 monthly data series of several categories in the Chinese market. The simulation studies and empirical study indicate that our Bayesian approach may be a viable option for nowcasting the China’s GDP.     

一种基于预测值量测转换的卡尔曼滤波跟踪算法

在雷达目标跟踪中，系统量测信息通常在球坐标系下获得。为了采用经典卡尔曼滤波算法实现有效目标跟踪，通常采用量测转换方法将非线性量测信息转换到直角坐标系中。针对传统量测转换方法基于量测值计算转换误差统计特性而导致的估计结果有偏问题，提出了一种基于预测值的量测转换方法，并将其与卡尔曼滤波算法相结合，获得了一种基于预测值量测转换的卡尔曼滤波跟踪算法。仿真结果表明，与现有的基于量测转换的卡尔曼滤波算法相比，该算法能在不提高运算量的情况下有效改善目标跟踪效果，跟踪精度提升约20%。     

Analyzing tactical control strategies for aircraft arrivals at an airport using a queuing model

This paper proposes to analyze control strategies for arrival air traffic at an airport using a classical queuing model. The parameters of our model are estimated by means of a data-driven analysis of two years of radar tracks and flight plans for arrival flights at Tokyo International Airport from 2016 to 2017. Our results show that increasing the capacity with one or two more aircraft in the airspace up to 60 NM around the airport significantly mitigates arrival delays, even when assuming future, increased arrival traffic volumes. The outcomes of this study provide insights into the effectiveness of arrival control strategies and are seen as a means to recommend scenarios to be further analyzed with human-in-the-loop simulations.     

农民工住房满意度及其影响因素分析

农民工市民化是我国城镇化的推进器,而农民工住房问题是农民工市民化问题研究的重要内容。通过农民工大规模问卷调查数据分析发现,尽管住房条件较差,但农民工的主观感受好于预期,婚姻状况、收入等人口统计学因素和住房自身特征中多个因素对农民工住房满意度具有显著影响。