Reforming Hungarian agricultural trade policy: A quantitative evaluation

Reforming Hungarian Agricultural Trade Policy: A Quantitative Evaluation. — In this paper, the authors quantitatively assess the consequences for Hungary of: (i) removing its quantitative import restraints in agriculture, (ii) removing the export subsidy program in agriculture, and (iii) adopting an EU-type “CAP” system in Hungary. The consequences are estimated through the use of a small open economy computable general equilibrium model for Hungary, calibrated to the year 1990. The tariff equivalent of the import licenses was estimated through a detailed price comparisons study, the first of its kind for Hungary. Import protection, export subsidies and a potential CAP system would contribute significantly to the Government's fiscal problems.     

Accounting for the stock of human capital: Selected evidence and potential implications

Accounting for the Stock of Human Capital: Selected Evidence and Potential Implications. — Given the observed distribution of output and labor across countries, most capital flows should be from rich to poor countries. As is shown for a limited sample of countries, accounting for differences in the stock of human capital substantially reduces the implicit cross-country rate of return differentials. Additionally, accounting for human capital externalities based on independent empirical evidence, turns around the predicted rate of return differentials in favor of rich countries. Hence, the world economy may converge to a rather unequal distribution of incomes as long as human capital accumulation is neglected as the key variable limiting economic development.     

A re-examination of the forward exchange rate unbiasedness hypothesis

A Re-Examination of the Forward Exchange Rate Unbiasedness Hypothesis. — This paper applies the Phillips and Hansen estimation and inference procedures to re-examine the hypothesis that the forward exchange rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot exchange rate. The results indicate that the 90-day forward exchange rate is not an unbiased predictor. However, the 90-day forward and future spot exchange rates are cointegrated. Only for the U.K. pound/U.S. dollar exchange rate is there an error correction representation. Overall, however, the evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that risk-averse agents in the forward foreign exchange market form expectations rationally.     

Host country competition,labor skills,and technology transfer by multinationals

Host Country Competition, Labor Skills, and Technology Transfer by Multinationals. — This paper examines the impact of local competition and the availability of skilled labor on the technology imports of foreign MNC affiliates in Mexican manufacturing industries. The authors find that proxies for local competition and labor skills are positively related to the recorded technology imports of foreign owned affiliates. The effects of competition appear to be particularly strong in intermediate and consumer goods industries, while the availability of skilled labor seems to be particularly important in durable and capital goods industries. Thus, government policies aiming to create a competitive climate and improve labor quality may also promote inflows of modern technology.     

International market interdependence and learning-by-doing in a risky world

International Market Interdependence and Learning-by-Doing in a Risky World. — This paper explores the role of international financial markets for the dynamic evolution of comparative advantage in a small economy. In a world where learning-by-doing alters labor’s productivity over time, the current allocation of labor across industries determines the future productivity of labor in each industry and future comparative advantage. The presence of technological uncertainty that is imperfectly correlated across two industries affects the current labor allocation and, thus, future industry-specific labor productivity. The introduction of international financial markets to this stochastic environment influences current resource allocations, future labor productivity, and consequently, the future path of comparative advantage.     

Endogenous timing in trade policy games: Should governments use countervailing duties?

Endogenous Timing in Trade Policy Games: Should Governments Use Countervailing Duties? - Trade policy under oligopoly is analysed in two multistage games with endogenous timing of trade policy. At the beginning of the games, the domestic and foreign governments choose whether to set trade policy at stage one or two. It is shown that in the subgame perfect equilibrium of both games, the domestic government will set its tariff (and production subsidy) at stage one and the foreign government its export subsidy at stage two. The domestic country commits not to use a countervailing duty in both games, and both countries are better off than when they set trade policy simultaneously.     

Give Heckscher and Ohlin a chance!

Give Heckscher and Ohlin a Chance! — This paper argues that criticism of the empirical inaccuracy of Heckscher-Ohlin theory has been much exaggerated. Most tests have mis-specified the theory, particularly in their treatment of capital, a factor of production which is internationally mobile and therefore generally does not influence the pattern of trade. The argument is illustrated by a review of empirical studies of North-South trade in manufactures, which is well explained by a skill-only Heckscher-Ohlin model.     

Testing for non-linear dependence in inter-war exchange rates

Testing for Non-Linear Dependence in Inter-War Exchange Rates. — This paper tests weekly inter-war floating exchange rate data for the pound-dollar, pound-franc and pound-reichsmark for non-linearity. Initial tests reveal strong evidence of generic non-linearity in these series and indicate neglected non-linear structure in the residuals of linear representations. Attempts to model this structure using GARCH residual processes have only been partially successful. Thus, two parametric models of such non-linearity were estimated. Comparing the forecasts from these models shows the mean square forecast errors of linear-GARCH and bilinear models to be lower than those from linear forecasts for all series, and that SETAR model forecasts outperform all other models for the pound-dollar.     

Intra-industry trade in the European computers industry

Intra-Industry Trade in the European Computers Industry. —This paper analyzes the pattern of intra-industry trade in the European computers industry. Hypotheses regarding both country-specific and industry-specific factors are tested. Those include proxies for level of economic development, market size, market proximity, scale economies and market concentration. The problem of categorical aggregation is explicitly addressed and a method to overcome is suggested. The results of the econometric analysis corroborate the predictions of the theoretical models and their ability to identify at least some of the crucial factors driving to international specialization.     

Macroprudential policy and imbalances in the euro area

Since its creation the euro area suffered from imbalances between its core and peripheral members. This paper checks whether macroprudential policy applied to the peripheral countries could contribute to providing more macroeconomic stability in this region. To this end we build a two-economy macrofinancial model and simulate the effects of macroprudential policy (regulating the loan-to-value ratio) when the core and the periphery are exposed to asymmetric shocks. We find that macroprudential policy is able to substantially lower the amplitude of credit and output fluctuations in the periphery. However, for the policy to be effective, it should be decentralized. Very similar conclusions hold when welfare is considered as the optimality criterion.