Industry risk transmission channels and the spillover effects of specific determinants in China’s stock market: A spatial econometrics approach

This paper uses a spatial econometrics approach to study the industry risks in China’s stock market. We comprehensively consider the real linkage and information risk transmission channels and analyze the risk spillovers of specific determinants. Our empirical results show the following: 1) The real linkage channel and information channel are both effective transmission channels for driving spillover effects, and the information channel is of the utmost importance. 2) The spillover effects of specific determinants exist and are persistent. The superposition of spillover effects may lead to extreme risk. 3) The transmission channels and spillover effects are asymmetric in different regimes.     

Price discovery and volatility spillover in spot and futures markets: evidences from steel-related commodities in China

The price discovery and spillover effect are significant indicators in futures markets. This study examines the price discovery and spillover effects using vector error correction model and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic for seven types of steel products in Chinese spot and futures markets. The results show that the price discovery exists in all of steel futures market. It is also confirmed that futures prices in all items are mainly leading spot prices via permanent-transitory and information share. In the results of spillover effects, it is found that wire rod, coking coal, coke and silico-manganese have the effects between spot and futures market. In rebar market, there is the spillover effect from spot to futures. This information about futures prices can help the market participants to make decisions when they predict the spot prices.     

中国股市行业风险与宏观经济之间的风险传导机制

本文采用行业收益率溢出指数度量股市行业风险,并进一步研究中国股市行业风险与宏观经济的相互影响,同时引入股息率和利率两个中介渠道深入挖掘其传导机制。我们运用GARCH-in-Mean模型对股市行业风险和宏观经济变量之间的一阶矩和二阶矩相互关系同时进行分析,结果发现,股市行业风险和宏观经济变量之间水平值和波动率都存在双向影响,对外溢出效应较大的行业起主导作用。此外,股市行业风险对宏观经济变量的影响方面,股息率和利率均起到中介渠道作用;宏观经济变量对股市行业风险的影响方面,只是利率起到中介渠道作用。股市行业风险与宏观经济的传导效应在不同时期差异显著。本文研究结论有助于深刻理解金融与实体经济之间的风险传导机制,对防范系统性风险、防止金融和实体经济“风险共振”以及提升金融服务实体经济能力等具有参考意义。     

颠覆性技术识别与预测方法研究进展

为了把握颠覆性技术识别与预测方法研究进展，首先对颠覆性的内涵、特征和运行机制进行论述；然后，通过对已有文献进行系统梳理，将识别与预测方法分为5类，分别展开详述；最后，对各类方法进行比较分析。研究发现，已有颠覆性技术识别与预测方法仍处于发展的初期阶段，所有识别研究方法均围绕颠覆性技术的外部影响或内在特征中的某一方面展开，并未将二者有机结合起来。未来，应综合把握颠覆性技术内外部特征，构建全面、系统的识别与预测框架。     

Business groups,the financial market and modernization*

Business groups are an important aspect of the industrial organization of many developing countries. This paper develops a theory suggesting that they may be organizations that facilitate modernization in the presence of financial market constraints. An important function of the stockmarket is the diversification of risk that comes with specialized, productive technology. But in the face of serious information problems a well functioning stockmarket may fail to emerge, relegating the economy to a low productivity‐poverty trap. Bilateral links between a firm and a group of others may be a more cost effective way to achieve risk‐sharing. Such business groups may be feasible when a full‐fledged stockmarket is not. As modernization takes place, either because information problems become less severe or more firms enter the economy, business groups actually expand in size before being abruptly rendered obsolete by the stockmarket. This is consistent with empirical results from a number of emerging economies.     

Development in Information and Communications Technology (ICT) Statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics

This paper outlines the ICT statistical developments that the ABS has undertaken over recent years. These developments have been on both the supply side (ICT industry) and the demand side (use of IT by sector). The content of ABS ICT surveys has changed significantly over the last few years and are expected to develop further in line with industry changes and emerging policy needs.
Recent developments in household collections have been the inclusion of IT use questions in the 2001 Census of Population and Housing and in various ABS social surveys such as Children's Participation in Culture and Leisure Activities. Annual business IT use surveys are now conducted and include topics such as Internet commerce and IT security. Biennial ICT industry surveys are conducted to provide data on ICT production, imports and exports, ICT industry employment, performance and structure information. An Internet activity survey is run every six months and provides regional Internet access details and infrastructure details on Internet service providers.
A major development for 2002–03 will be the compilation of an ICT satellite account. ABS intends to produce an ICT Information Development Plan to guide its future statistical development work in the ICT field.     

FDI facilitated by agglomeration economies: evidence from manufacturing and services joint ventures in China

The open door policy of China’s economic reform since the 1980s has attracted heavy foreign direct investment (FDI) flows into China and especially to Guangdong (particularly the Pearl River Delta region, PRD) and induced significant economic growth during the past two decades. While there exist various classical theories of FDI in attempting to identify the determinants of FDI inflow and to explain the behavior of FDI flows, limited attention has been given from the perspective of agglomeration effects generated by a core-periphery (CP) relation.This paper intends to study the impacts of agglomerations on FDI inflows in the context of Krugman’s CP relation (1991) by investigating (1) the formation of a CP relation via gravity model analysis; (2) whether different types of industry FDI flows will respond differently in the CP-system, given agglomeration effects; and (3) whether FDI origin and firm scale matter in affecting FDI flows.A database consisting of a population frame of 37,742 firm-level manufacturing and services joint ventures investing in Guangdong in 1998 was used. Empirical results show that the agglomerations of the CP relation have affected FDI flow patterns. While both manufacturing and services FDI and sources of investment responded differently to the impacts, smaller firms were found more responsive to the CP-agglomeration settings regardless of FDI by industry type and by source. The significance and implications of the CP-system to further facilitate FDI in the region are discussed.     

多媒体技术在数学教学中的应用

要深化教学改革必须充分发挥信息技术的优势，采用多媒体技术进行数学教学势在必行。文章从激发学习兴趣、提高学习效率、优化教学过程等方面阐述了运用多媒体技术进行数学教学的必然性、可行性、优越性。     

主要FDI母国（地区）对华投资的贸易效应分析

由于影响因素众多，不考虑贸易结构的变化，而仅从数量上看，FDI对国际贸易可以产生三种效果，即替代效应、补充效应和不确定效应。具体到不同的东道国和母国，FDI对其国际贸易的最终影响将取决于何种效应占上风。本文即是对中国的投资来源国（地区）的对华投资额与对华贸易额之间的相关关系所作的一个经验分析。此分析是为了检验中国吸收的FDI所产生的双边贸易效果。文中以中国的6个投资来源大国（地区）和贸易伙伴大国（地区）为样本，分别对各国1991—2006年间对华直接投资与对华贸易之间的相关性进行了检验。结果表明，投资对贸易的三种效应在中国都是存在的，情况因国而异。     

工业经济中外商直接投资与国内投资关系的实证研究

利用工业中26个行业2001-2004年的面板数据，使用固定效应模型，估计了工业经济中外商直接投资与国内投资的关系，结果发现，在这26个行业中，有的行业因外商直接投资的增加挤入了国内投资，而有的行业外商直接投资的增加，挤出了国内投资：在此基础上，本文还通过模型检验了行业外商直接投资挤入或挤出国内投资的影响因素，结果表明，行业的竞争性和劳动密集性是影响其关系的主要因素。