Consulta colectiva y gestión por cuotas en el modelo chino gubernamental de relaciones laborales

El sistema chino de relaciones laborales consiste en un modelo de consulta colectiva dirigida por el Gobierno y un método de gestión por cuotas heredado de la economía planificada. Gobierno y sindicatos colaboran para lograr cuotas de cobertura, sobre todo a nivel empresarial. Aunque consiguen salvar las reticencias empresariales, la ausencia de verdadera negociación colectiva priva de sustancia los convenios firmados. A partir de entrevistas y de fuentes documentales, los autores concluyen que el Gobierno pretende institucionalizar un marco de relaciones laborales para contener el creciente descontento laboral pero posponiendo pragmáticamente la auténtica negociación colectiva en aras de la estabilidad y el crecimiento.     

Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons

The objective of this article is to study (understand and forecast) spot metal price levels and changes at monthly, quarterly, and annual frequencies. Data consists of metal-commodity prices at a monthly and quarterly frequencies from 1957 to 2012, extracted from the IFS, and annual data, provided from 1900 to 2010 by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). We also employ the (relatively large) list of co-variates used in Welch and Goyal (2008) and in Hong and Yogo (2009).We investigate short- and long-run comovement by applying the techniques and the tests proposed in the common-feature literature. One of the main contributions of this paper is to understand the short-run dynamics of metal prices. We show theoretically that there must be a positive correlation between metal-price variation and industrial-production variation if metal supply is held fixed in the short run when demand is optimally chosen taking into account optimal production for the industrial sector. This is simply a consequence of the derived-demand model for cost-minimizing firms. Our empirical evidence fully supports this theoretical result, with overwhelming evidence that cycles in metal prices are synchronized with those in industrial production. This evidence is stronger regarding the global economy but holds as well for the U.S. economy to a lesser degree.Regarding out-of-sample forecasts, our main contribution is to show the benefits of forecast-combination techniques, which outperform individual-model forecasts – including the random-walk model. We use a variety of models (linear and non-linear, single equation and multivariate) and a variety of co-variates and functional forms to forecast the returns and prices of metal commodities. Using a large number of models (N large) and a large number of time periods (T large), we apply the techniques put forth by the common-feature literature on forecast combinations. Empirically, we show that models incorporating (short-run) common-cycle restrictions perform better than unrestricted models, with an important role for industrial production as a predictor for metal-price variation.     

Scale effects of R&D as reflected in earnings and returns

Using returns to scale as a conceptual foundation, we explore how R&D-related earnings performance and earnings variability depend upon firm size. We find that the positive association between the level of future earnings and R&D intensity increases with firm size, and that the positive association between the volatility of future earnings and R&D intensity decreases with firm size, consistent with R&D productivity increasing with scale. We also show that R&D scale is associated with lower market returns, consistent with the idea that R&D investment risk declines with scale.     

Granular institutional investors and global market interdependence

We study the propagation of global investment risk across markets through the granular view of institutional investors. Applying the conditional value-at-risk estimation to micro-level weekly observations of international mutual funds between 2003 and 2011, we find that idiosyncratic shocks to large institutional investors explain both aggregate market risk and cross-market risk interdependence. Conditional on the US capital markets being in financial distress, idiosyncratic shocks to the top 10% largest funds investing in the US explain about 40% of the risk fluctuations in other non-US markets. The findings are also economically and statistically significant for the top largest funds investing in non-US markets, with the effects becoming especially large during the global financial crisis of 2007–09. These results are robust after controlling for common risk factors and applying alternative measures of idiosyncratic shocks.     

The effect of banking market structure on the lending channel: Evidence from emerging markets

This paper analyses the extent to which the level of bank competition influences monetary policy transmission. Using a large panel dataset of 978 banks from 55 countries, and employing the Lerner index model as a measure of market structure, our results show that an increase in banking sector competition weakens the effectiveness of monetary policy on bank lending. The findings are robust to a broad array of sensitivity checks including control of alternative measurements of the Lerner index, different samples and different methodological specifications. By extension, these results have important policy implications for regulators in assessing the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission mechanisms.     

任务型教学法和传统3P教学在阅读课中的对比

任务型教学法在提高学生独立思考，应用语言表达自己思想和全面看问题方面的确有3P教学所不能及的效果。高职英语阅读教学更需要引入任务型范式来提高其英语应用能力。     

基于3G技术下的高校掌上数字图书馆的应用探索

在对诠释3G以及掌上数字图书馆概念的基础上,分析了3G技术对掌上数字图书馆高校受众的影响,探讨了在3G技术支持下的高校掌上移动数字图书馆的发展前景及其服务方向与趋势。     

Using survey data to resolve the exchange risk exposure puzzle: Evidence from U.S. multinational firms

This paper examines the effect of unexpected exchange rate movements on U.S. shareholder wealth. Empirical results based on a sample of 634 U.S. multinational firms (1) confirm previously reported evidence that the disaggregation of the worldwide trade-weighted U.S. dollar exchange rate index into seven region-specific trade-weighted indices increases the precision and significance of exposure estimates; (2) show that models assuming that changes in spot exchange rates are unanticipated are frequently misspecified and, thus, unable to correctly detect the impact of currency movements on firm value; (3) reveal that forward and survey expectations enable us to distinguish between the effect of ‘realized’ and ‘unexpected’ currency movements; and (4) reveal that investors making pricing and hedging decisions prefer to use the information contained in short-term forward and survey expectation rates to the information included in long-term forecasts.     

企业国际化经营的市场进入方式选择

随着世界经济一体化进程的加快和我国成功地加入世贸组织,企业越来越普遍地从事国际化经营活动。正确选择市场进入方式是企业国际化经营成败的关键。本文着重分析了影响进入方式选择的主要因素,并基于这一领域的交易成本理论、组织行为理论、折衷理论等尝试构建了一个企业国际化经营的进入方式综合决策模型,以期对我国企业实施“走出去”战略提供有益的借鉴。     

开发农村人力资源是解决“三农”问题的根本

“三农”问题是近年来社会各界倍受关注的热点,引起了各级政府高度重视。但只是“头疼医头,脚疼医脚”,没能从根本上认清问题的关键所在。重视农村人力资源开发,理性思考是解决我国“三农”问题的根本途径。