Determinants of commodity price risk exposure in the restaurant industry: An analysis by commodity price cycles

The objectives of the present study were to (1) investigate the level and the extent of commodity price risk exposure in the restaurant industry and (2) identify the determinants of risk exposure. The risk exposure was estimated by 60-month rolling regressions based on equity returns. The determinants of equity risk exposure were proposed based on a discounted cash flow model. The results found that 35.39% of sample restaurant firms are exposed to commodity price risk. The level of equity risk exposure was estimated to be 1.148 during commodity price booms and 1.031 during slumps. Empirical testing was consistent with the model prediction that operating leverage and financial leverage are effective tools in managing risk exposure, but the effects are asymmetric during commodity price booms and slumps. Financial leverage was found to be more effective than operating leverage.     

A continuous time Bayesian network classifier for intraday FX prediction

Abstract

Prediction of foreign exchange (FX) rates is addressed as a binary classification problem in which a continuous time Bayesian network classifier (CTBNC) is developed and used to solve it. An exact algorithm for inference on CTBNC is introduced. The performance of an instance of these classifiers is analysed and compared to that of dynamic Bayesian network by using real tick by tick FX rates. Performance analysis and comparison, based on different metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall and Brier score, evince a predictive power of these models for FX rates at high frequencies. The achieved results also show that the proposed CTBNC is more effective and more efficient than dynamic Bayesian network classifier. In particular, it allows to perform high frequency prediction of FX rates in cases where dynamic Bayesian networks-based models are computationally intractable.     

Reexamining the Exchange Rate Exposure Puzzle by Classifying Exchange Rate Risks into Two Types

The “exchange rate exposure puzzle” refers to the phenomenon in which the proportion of firms with significant exchange rate exposure tends to be lower than expected figures. Some studies use changes in exchange rate to indicate exchange rate risks relevant to firm value. However, a different measure of exchange rate risks, which is the volatility in exchange rate changes, can also affect the value of firms because exchange rate uncertainty can affect international trade and investments of firms. This study classifies exchange rate risks into two types, namely, changes in exchange rate and the standard deviation of exchange rate changes, and empirically examines exchange rate exposure of firms in 12 countries. The results suggest that the proportion of firms with significant exchange rate exposure increases substantially, and thus, weakens the exchange rate exposure puzzle when we also count the cases in which the standard deviation of exchange rate changes affects stock return significantly.     

俄罗斯卢布汇率政策实施机制

文章分析了俄罗斯为最终实现卢布汇率自由浮动的汇率政策目标的制度探索,认为其现已建立起一套机制复杂但运作灵活的卢布汇率形成机制。文章介绍了2013年10月以来俄罗斯完善卢布汇率制的主要措施,包括扩大卢布对双货币篮子汇率每日浮动的“中立区间”,在卢布对双货币篮子汇率每日浮动区间中增设“技术区间”,下调每日外汇干预的目标额度等。     

建筑材料内照射指数、外照射指数稳定性研究

在同实验室、同测量人员、同测量设备、同测量时间、同实验室温度和湿度的条件下,分别取制不同的A样品、B样品和C样品,并从取制样品当天时间开始检测,以间隔一天的时间每天测量不同样品一次,并计算记录间隔22天每天不同样品的镭-226、钍-232、钾-40比活度,分别计算其不同内照射指数、外照射指数,从理论方面解释建筑材料中内照射指数、外照射指数稳定性。     

外汇结构性存款的价值分解与定价方法分析

本文主要根据金融工程的组合分解原理,对外汇结构性存款的基本价值构成和定价方法框架进行分析与探讨。首先,在考虑收益风险的基础上,对一般性的欧式外汇结构性存款的价值构成进行分析。然后,在上述基本要素的基础之上,分析具有可提前赎回或回售特征的外汇结构性存款的基本价值构成,并以解析解的形式对该类外汇结构性存款进行价值构成分解;最后,对该产品各个部分价值所采用的定价理论方法进行阐述分析。其中,该产品的附息债券部分运用普通蒙特卡罗模拟方法进行定价,而可提前赎回和可提前回售部分的价值拟运用改进的最小二乘蒙特卡罗模拟方法进行定价。     

2011年10月银行间市场运行报告

2011年10月,银行间市场平稳运行,主要特点是：货币市场利率呈U型走势,银行间国债收益率曲线整体下移;境内即期美元盘中汇率大幅偏离基准价格,境内外价差持续倒挂,竞价市场成交份额显著增长;利率互换中以Shibor为浮动端参考利率的品种成交量居首位;外汇衍生品交易环比下滑,境内外衍生品价格倒挂程度减轻。     

Exchange rate exposure

In this paper we examine the relationship between exchange rate movements and firm value. We estimate the exchange rate exposure of publicly listed firms in a sample of eight (non-US) industrialized and emerging markets. We find that exchange rate movements do matter for a significant fraction of firms, though which firms are affected and the direction of exposure depends on the specific exchange rate and varies over time, suggesting that firms dynamically adjust their behavior in response to exchange rate risk. Exposure is correlated with firm size, multinational status, foreign sales, international assets, and competitiveness and trade at the industry level.     

Quantifying and characterising aviation accident risk factors

This paper compares the exposure of normal flights to a number of meteorological factors that also exist for flights resulting in accidents. The factors examined include visibility, ceiling height, temperature, crosswind, tailwind and instrument or visual meteorological conditions. Differences in exposure to these factors are examined and a measure of accident propensity related to different levels of risk exposure is quantified based on relative accident involvement ratios. Four categories of aircraft accidents relevant to the assessment of airport safety areas are examined.