嵌入性创新网络与科技型小微企业创新绩效:网络能力中介效应研究

科技型小微企业嵌入于创新网络中,通过自主性发挥网络构建与管理能力,进一步分享创新网络资源,提高创新实力。基于中国软件谷(南京)及相关创业孵化园246家软件企业问卷调查结果,运用SPSS、LISREL软件进行统计分析,实证研究网络能力对嵌入性创新网络与科技型小微企业创新绩效的中介效应。结果表明:(1)嵌入性创新网络稳定性有利于科技型小微企业创新绩效的提升;(2)嵌入性创新网络强度越大,科技型小微企业网络能力越强;(3)科技型小微企业网络能力越强,创新绩效提升越明显;(4)科技型小微企网络能力有助于促进嵌入性创新网络对创新绩效的提升作用。     

东亚经济金融合作的进展与前景

区域经济金融合作的最高境界就是完全的经济一体化。这已成为当代世界一股不可阻挡的潮流。自1961年东盟成立以来，东亚区域经济金融合作的进程一直比较缓慢。1997年的亚洲金融危机使各国深刻认识到，只有加强合作，逐步实现经济的一体化，才能共同抵御风险。本文通过对东亚区域经济金融合作进展的描述．预测了东亚经济金融一体化的前景，展望了东亚经济金融一体化的新纪元．     

Pecking order as a dynamic leverage theory

Static tradeoff theories, which do not explicitly treat the impact of transaction costs, do not explain the policy of asymmetry between frequent small debt transactions and infrequent large equity transactions. Nor do these theories explain why the debt ratio is allowed to wander a considerable distance from its alleged static optimum, or how much of a distance should be tolerated. We offer a class of diffusion models that mimic this behaviour in a stochastic-dynamic framework and are designed to optimize a financing strategy using any static tradeoff theory as input. The models developed reveal the determinants of the size and frequency of equity transactions and the range of values over which leverage variations are tolerated in four generic scenarios. They also yield a new formulation of the cost of capital that recognizes stochastic transaction costs and a penalty for deviation from any static-optimal leverage. Our class of models augments the pecking order theory, provides a flexible quantitative framework for its implementation as a decision tool, and facilitates the formulation of additional hypotheses for its empirical validation. Symmetrically, our results show the importance of dynamic factors in designing and interpreting empirical tests of static tradeoff theories. The results presented have important implications for the role played by static tradeoff theories in a stochastic-dynamic framework. One such implication is that the static-optimal leverage has no direct effect on the firm's leverage policy in this setting. The target leverage for refinancing transactions is different from the static-optimal leverage, and the mean leverage is generally different from both. As a consequence, the latter cannot be used to estimate the former. Another implication is that even when the mean leverage equals the static optimum, mean reversion is not an optimal behaviour and therefore not a legitimate test for the existence of a static tradeoff in a dynamic context. Still another implication is that wide variations in leverage ratios cannot be interpreted as evidence of leverage indifference. It follows that the pecking order theory is consistent with static tradeoff theories and does not require the assumption of leverage indifference.     

企业创新资源配置结构对创新绩效的影响：基于不同产权性质视角

产权性质与企业创新投入及创新绩效的关系一直是学术界争论的焦点之一。尽管整合制度逻辑和效率逻辑有助于调和现有矛盾,但是采用投入—产出模型忽略了影响创新绩效的微观要素与配置结构间的差异。以要素配置为切入点,将企业创新资源配置划分为人员结构、人员层次结构与经费结构3部分,从产权性质视角打开企业创新投入的“黑箱”。结果发现：①与民营企业相比,国企倾向于配置更多创新资源;②在国企的3种资源配置结构中,仅经费结构配置合理,能够显著提升创新绩效,人员结构配置对创新绩效的提升作用不显著;③相比之下,民企人员结构配置较为合理,对创新绩效的提升发挥着重要作用;④国企、民企人员层次结构配置均不合理且无显著差异。研究表明：民企善于发挥人的优势,而国企更能发挥物的优势。研究结论可为解释产权性质与创新绩效差异提供新视角。     

Predictive financial models of the euro area: A new evaluation test

This paper investigates the predictive ability of financial variables for euro area growth. Our forecasts are built from univariate autoregressive and single equation models. Euro area aggregate forecasts are constructed both by employing aggregate variables and by aggregating country-specific forecasts. The forecast evaluation is based on a recently developed test for equal predictive ability between nested models. Employing a monthly dataset from the period between January 1988 and May 2005 and setting the out-of-sample period to be from 2001 onwards, we find that the single most powerful predictor on a country basis is the stock market returns, followed by money supply growth. However, for the euro area aggregate, the set of most powerful predictors includes interest rate variables as well. The forecasts from pooling individual country models outperform those from the aggregate itself for short run forecasts, while for longer horizons this pattern is reversed. Additional benefits are obtained when combining information from a range of variables or combining model forecasts.     

国际宏观审慎监管体系的发展及对我国的启示

近年来,进一步加强和改进宏观审慎监管已经成为国际金融监管当局形成的广泛共识.我国在编制"十二五"规划时也明确提出"构建逆周期的金融宏观审慎管理制度框架".本文从宏观审慎监管提出的背景入手,从监管目标、主体、客体机制等角度总结了近期国际上有关宏观审慎监管的理论与实践,并结合我国实际,有针对性地提出了构建宏观审慎监管体系的建议,包括明确宏观审慎监管的目标、主体、客体机制以及明确宏观审慎监管与微观审慎监管的关系等.     

融资约束、金融发展与企业雇佣——来自中国企业调查数据的经验证据

基于世界银行提供的中国企业调查数据,本文分析了融资约束和金融发展对企业雇佣的影响。研究发现:在缓解内生性问题后,融资约束对企业雇佣需求有显著负面影响,即在其他条件不变情况下,企业感知到的融资难度每增加1个单位,其正式员工的雇佣增长率将下降3.1%。以2003年中国人民银行对货币信贷过快增长进行调控为自然实验,发现紧缩性的货币政策操作对企业雇佣需求有显著负面冲击;金融发展可以缓解企业融资约束,且金融发展对企业雇佣的促进作用主要体现在制造业、大中型及发展成长中的企业。本研究为理解金融因素对劳动力市场的需求提供了微观经验证据。     

我国商业银行个人理财业务发展探索

商业银行个人理财业务在我国已经进入高速发展期,但目前国内商业银行提供的个人理财业务却和市场需求差距很大。本文从商业银行个人理财业务的含义引入,分析了我国商业银行个人理财业务中存在的问题,并就存在的问题提出发展建议。     

Intangible assets and value relevance: Evidence from the Portuguese stock exchange

We assess the value relevance of the amounts for identifiable intangible assets and goodwill reported in the financial statements of all non-finance companies listed on the main market of the Portuguese Stock Exchange from 1998 to 2008. Additionally, we use panel data to explore the impact on value relevance of Portugal’s formal adoption of International Accounting Standards [IAS] and International Financial Reporting Standards [IFRS] in 2005. A distinctive feature of the accounting by our sample companies is that when they adopted IAS 38 and IFRS 3 in 2005, they were no longer required to recognise some intangible assets (such as start-up costs and research expenditures) and were no longer required to amortise goodwill.We find that net earnings, reported goodwill and other intangible assets are highly significantly associated with stock price. However, whereas earnings are related positively to stock prices when Portuguese Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) were applied prior to 2005, the value relevance of earnings appears to have declined after the adoption of IAS/IFRS in 2005. Although the change to IAS/IFRS had no impact on the value relevance of identifiable intangibles as a whole, the evidence suggests that there was a positive effect on the value relevance of goodwill. When the subclasses of identifiable intangible assets are considered, we found evidence of an increase in value relevance of goodwill, other intangible assets, and research and development expenditures.     

服务创新能力对创新绩效的影响

构建了一个服务企业不同层面创新能力影响创新绩效的概念模型,并以酒店服务业为背景,采用访谈和问卷调查的方法对武汉、宜昌、襄阳三地的酒店服务创新活动展开调研,搜集相关数据。结果表明：服务企业不同层面的创新能力对创新绩效的影响具有明显差异。其中,新服务开发战略的影响最强,IT经验和注重新服务开发流程次之,市场敏锐性影响最弱;组织创新氛围对创新绩效的直接影不太显著,但组织创新氛围在服务创新能力对创新绩效的影响中具有显著的正向调节作用。