促进共同富裕的税收制度与政策研究

实现共同富裕是社会主义的根本目标,是社会主义优越性的体现.本文首先介绍了共同富裕的内涵,共同富裕是全体人民的富裕,是兼顾公平与效率的富裕.本文进一步阐述了税收制度在促进共同富裕中发挥的积极作用,并结合具体数据进行国际比较,剖析目前我国税收制度在促进收入分配方面存在的不足.我国税收制度在缩小收入差距方面已取得阶段性成效,但仍存在直接税体系不完善、"税收洼地"引发诸多避税风险、税收征管体制面临多重挑战等方面的不足.最后,本文从持续优化税收营商环境,鼓励勤劳创新致富;健全直接税体系,提高税收调节收入再分配的作用;规范地方税收优惠,维护财政收入分配秩序;提升税收征管水平,严厉打击偷税漏税行为四个维度提出了政策建议.     

气候变化对经济金融系统性冲击的物理风险研究

中国作为全球最大的发展中国家,其综合实力伴随着经济、科技的快速发展而不断增强。但我国的极端气候事件趋多趋强,气候风险水平呈上升趋势,影响我国经济社会的发展。金融作为经济运行的核心,在宏观经济中有着举足轻重的作用。为了研究气候变化与经济金融稳定之间的关系,本文对极端气候事件损失体系和区域经济金融稳定性综合体系进行指数合成并构建面板模型探讨气候变化中气温和降水量因素的变动和极端气候事件对区域金融稳定的影响,得出气候变化的物理风险通过极端气候事件对经济发展和金融稳定有负面影响,并根据实证结果提出完善绿色金融市场和优化信息披露制度的政策建议。     

Institutions and economic growth in Portugal: a quantitative exploration

This paper presents a broad diagnostic of the level of institutional development in Portugal in the legal, corporate governance and financial systems. A comparative assessment suggests that Portuguese institutions are less developed than their European Union and East Asian counterparts, more developed than Greek institutions and on a level similar to that of Spanish institutions. We use data for a wide cross-section of countries since 1960 and correlate indicators of institutional development with the long-term average growth rate, identifying issues where reform is likely to significantly affect economic growth. We construct three new indices that measure the potential of institutional reform - the impact of reform on growth, the required reform effort and the efficiency of reform index - by taking into consideration the institutional distance between Portugal and the European Union. These indices measure, respectively, which reforms have the most payoff in terms of growth, which are less costly to undertake and which deliver the most growth per required effort. Our results strongly suggest that in a large number of issues, institutional reform may translate into substantially higher rates of economic growth. Of the ten most promising reforms, six are in the legal area, irrespective of which of the indices is considered. Whereas legal reform is promising at the aggregate and the microeconomic levels, in the financial sector aggregate indicators offer the wider scope for productive reform, while in the corporate governance area it is indices at the micro level that hold the most promise. These results support the view that a comprehensive reform effort is likely to deliver higher rates of growth in Portugal, allowing faster real convergence with the rest of the European Union.Received: January 2003, Accepted: February 2004, JEL Classification: O0, O5, K00, K4, G2, G3This paper is based on Firms, Financial Markets and the Law: Institutions and Economic Growth in Portugal, prepared for the conference Desenvolvimento Económico Português no Espaço Europeu: Determinantes e Políticas, organized by the Banco de Portugal. Financial support by the Banco de Portugal, NOVA FORUM and FUNDAÇÃO Para a Ciência e tecnologia and Polti through feder are gratefully acknowledged. Comments from Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, two anonymous referees and the editor are sincerely appreciated. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Law and finance: why does legal origin matter?

This paper assesses empirically two theories of why legal origin influences financial development. The political channel stresses that legal traditions differ in the priority they give to the rights of individual investors vis-à-vis the state and this has repercussions for financial development. The adaptability channel holds that legal traditions differ in their ability to adjust to changing commercial circumstances and legal systems that adapt quickly will foster financial development more effectively. We use historical comparisons and cross-country regressions to assess the validity of these two channels. We find that legal origin matters for financial development because legal traditions differ in their ability to adapt efficiently to evolving economic conditions. Journal of Comparative Economics 31 (4) (2003) 653–675.     

论我国金融生态圈优化与金融创新的功效

金融生态圈与金融生态环境不应被混淆,前者能更深刻地揭示和刻画金融体系中各构成部分之间彼此依存、互为前提的关系.发达国家的金融生态圈因其良好的系统循环关系值得我们思考和借鉴.如果人为地限制某些金融品种的发展,就会使金融"食物链"发生脱节.我国目前的金融生态圈存在系统性缺陷,金融种类不符合现代金融良性循环的要求.应通过金融创新补足缺失的金融种类,并通过制度创新构建良好的创新响应机制.     

The optimal treatment of tax expenditures

This paper analyzes the optimal treatment of tax expenditures. It develops an optimal tax model where individuals derive utility from spending on a “contribution” good such as charitable giving. The contribution good has also a public good effect on all individuals in the economy. The government imposes linear taxes on earnings and on the contribution good so as to maximize welfare. The government may also finance directly the contribution good out of tax revenue. Optimal tax and subsidy rates on earnings and the contribution good are expressed in terms of empirically estimable parameters and the redistributive tastes of the government. The optimal subsidy on the contribution good is increasing in the size of the price elasticity of contributions, the size of the crowding out effect of public contributions on private contributions, and the size of the public good effect of the contribution good. Numerical simulations show that the optimal subsidy on contributions is fairly sensitive to the size of these parameters but that, in most cases, it should be lower than the earnings tax rate.     

从京东方负债扩张看我国的杠杆收购

20上世纪80年代风靡美国的杠杆收购方式以其巨大的溢价空间和较高的财务、经营风险引起理论学者的研究和实践人士的青睐。我国现阶段,实行杠杆收购有着非常深远的影响和广阔的空间,但仍存在许多制约因素,如法律不完善、资本市场弱式化、投资银行不发达、管理人员素质不高等。     

现金流对上市公司投资行为的影响分析

本文采用实证方法，检验我国上市公司融资约束、现金流与投资决策之间的关系。以沪深300指数样本上市公司为基础，结合面板数据和时间数据，利用线性回归方法检验公司投资行为与现金流量、营业收入、负债率、托宾Q等财务指标的关系，并进一步分析上市公司的投资与现金流量等指标的敏感性。     

国有企业、金融市场改革与养老保险制度改革的互动效应--中国如何解决老年保障问题?

中国政府非常清楚社会保障所面临的危机，决定寻求解决办法。拟议中的社会保障改革的核心是积累制和整合条块分割的体系，计划为每个工人建立个人退休账户，对养老基金进行有效投资。然而，这种改革受阻于三个关键因素。(1)在向积累制的转化过程中必须支付特制成本；(2)现有的社会保障体系条块分割、分散化管理3(3)已经积累的基金尚未取得高收益，也未分配到最有效率的用途上。     

积极财政政策执行效果及隐忧问题研究——H省执行情况个案分析

基于凯恩斯主义国民收入决定理论 ,通过对H省经济运行数据的实证模拟 ,分析H省积极财政政策的执行情况 ,并结合H省省情和我国国情 ,我们得到了九个基本命题 :命题 1∶H省经济处于投资陷阱之中 ,因而货币政策无效 ,财政政策充分有效。命题 2∶H省的财政政策乘数为 5 596,投资需求拉动乘数为 2 3 945,消费需求拉动乘数为2 2 0 1 5,财政支出回馈乘数为 0 2 2 66。命题 3∶H省国债转贷与补助资金拉动的经济增长率为 :1 988年 0 6个百分点 ,1 999年 0 9个百分点 ,2 0 0 0年 0 6个百分点 ,2 0 0 1年 0 5个百分点。命题 4:乘数愈大 ,积极财政政策的效果愈大 ,但积极财政政策退出造成的负作用也愈大 ,总需求和经济增长对积极财政政策的依赖程度也愈强。命题 5,民营化程度愈低 ,投资的利率弹性愈低 ,货币政策愈无效 ,反之亦然。命题 6,民营化程度愈低 ,财政依赖程度愈强 ,反之亦然。命题 7:我国的积极财政政策必然会退出 ;退出的最佳方式是淡出 ;维持现有国债规模是淡出的最可能的形式 ,是一个聚点均衡。命题 8:H省的民营化程度低于全国的平均水平 ,财政依赖程度高于全国的平均水平 ,自主性增长动力尤显不足。命题 9:如果没有激励民间投资的有效措施出台 ,积极财政政策淡出将使H省经济增长速度下滑。