知识管理风险的综合评价

通过对知识管理进行全面系统的思考,分析影响知识管理成败的风险因素,构建出企业知识管理风险评价的指标体系,并应用模糊数学中的综合判断方法,对知识管理风险方案进行了综合评判。     

基于贝叶斯网络的咨询公司ERP咨询项目风险评估

针对咨询公司ERP咨询项目风险的特点和风险定量评估要求,提出了基于贝叶斯网络的ERP咨询项目风险评估方法。在风险辨识的基础上,根据风险之间的相关性,建立了贝叶斯风险网络模型;依赖领域专家的主观判断并借助项目经验确定网络中的概率参数,通过专家信息融合克服主观判断的缺陷;运用贝叶斯网络推理工具定量估计风险的发生概率及其影响,进一步评估风险强度并对其进行排序,以确定整个网络图中各风险的控制优先级。最后通过实例验证该方法的有效性。     

基于久期缺口的商业银行利率风险免疫策略及实证分析

随着利率市场化的深入，利率风险越来越成为影响商业银行绩效的主要风险，因此，如何对商业银行利率风险进行计量及管理，日益成为国内外学术界高度关注的重要课题。通过建立久期缺口模型，提出了商业银行利率风险免疫策略，并进行实证分析表明：通过确立目标项目，调整资产与负债结构，可以较好地实现商业银行的利率风险免疫。     

新巴塞尔资本协议解读--兼论WTO条件下我国银行业的风险管理

本文从分析说明新巴塞尔资本协议的内容创新及特点入手,论述了我国银行业特别是四大国有商业银行在WTO条件下新协议的推行对其所产生的风险及其负面影响,并提出了对策建议。     

银行风险监管信息系统的探讨

近年来，商业银行大案要案频频发生，而且越来越严重，这其中，不仅有银行制度不健全、缺乏监管和内部腐败等原因，而且还有技术方面的原因，如信息系统不完善，信息技术利用不充分，数据库建设落后和信息交流共享不畅等。为此，应构建商业银行风险监管信息系统，开发工作由商业银行自主完成，系统开发及维护人员应与业务人员严格分离，系统应具备良好的外部接口，并不断加强对系统的维护。     

Economic Risk Factors and Commercial Real Estate Returns

A great deal of research has focused on the links between stock and bond market returns and macroeconomic events such as fluctuations in interest rates, inflation rates, and industrial production. Although the comovements of real estate and other asset prices suggests that these same systematic risk factors are likely to be priced in real estate markets, no study has formally addressed this issue. This study identifies the growth rate in real per capita consumption, the real T-bill rate, the term structure of interest rates, and unexpected inflation as fundamental drivers or state variables that systematically affect real estate returns. The finding of a consistently significant risk premium on consumption has important ramifications for the vast literature that has examined the (risk-adjusted) performance of real estate, for it suggests that prior findings of significant abnormal returns (either positive or negative) that have ignored consumption are potentially biased by an omitted variables problem. The results also have important implications for dynamic asset allocation strategies that involve the predictability of real estate returns using economic data.     

An Analysis of SBA Loan Defaults by Maturity Structure

The financial intermediation literature on small business lending focuses on the determinants and costs to credit access. There is, however, little research examining the repayment behavior of small firms that actually receive loans. In this paper, we address this shortcoming in the literature by examining the default behavior of a sample of Small Business Administration 7(a) guaranteed loans with three distinct maturity structures. We employ a discrete-time hazard approach and show that SBA defaults are time-dependent and that the factors impacting default behavior, as well as its timing, are maturity specific. Specifically, we show the importance of loan maturity, seasoning, economic conditions, and other firm-specific factors in predicting the likelihood of SBA loan defaults. JEL classification: G21     

论注册会计师责任保险制度

注册会计师责任保险对于提高会计师事务所的风险抵御能力和保护投资者利益两方面都具有重要意义.在我国,注册会计师责任保险尚处于起步阶段,无论是需求还是供给都存在不足.但随着我国虚假陈述民事诉讼制度的不断完善,注册会计师的法律诉讼风险将大大提高.为了降低事务所的执业风险、保护受到虚假陈述侵害的投资者利益,我国应当借鉴其他国家和地区的经验,完善我国的注册会计师责任保险制度,并建立相关的配套措施,促进注册会计师责任保险制度的发展.     

Hedging Housing Risk*

An unusually rich source of data on housing prices in Stockholm is used to analyze the investment implications of housing choices. This empirical analysis derives market-wide price and return series for housing investment during a 13-year period, and it also provides estimates of the individual-specific, idiosyncratic, variation in housing returns. Because the idiosyncratic component follows an autocorrelated process, the analysis of portfolio choice is dependent upon the holding period. We analyze the composition of household investment portfolios containing housing, common stocks, stocks in real estate holding companies, bonds, and t-bills. For short holding periods, the efficient portfolio contains essentially no housing. For longer periods, low-risk portfolios contain 15 to 50 percent housing. These results suggest that there are large potential gains from policies or institutions that would permit households to hedge their lumpy investments in housing. We estimate the potential value of hedges in reducing risk to households, yet yielding the same investment returns. The value is surprisingly large, especially to poorer homeowners.