The ten commandments of legal risk management

Effective legal risk management is not a separate field of endeavor. Rather, it is inextricably linked with good management and with ethical management; managers who behave professionally and according to ethically defensible principles of action are quite unlikely to find themselves and their organizations stuck in a legal and/or ethical quagmire. Behavioral decision theory offers some explanations for why those managers who go astray do so, but explaining how basic human tendencies, uncorrected, may incline us to questionable decisions is not to justify such decisions. Managers who follow the guidelines set forth in this article may nonetheless find themselves or their companies under assault in the law courts or the court of public opinion, but should such an unlikely event occur, they will be far more likely to be able to successfully defend themselves.     

彩票的经济学分析及我国彩票市场主体的取向

本文认为,彩票作为融资手段、理财手段和娱乐方式,可以有效地把社会闲置资金用于福利事业和其他公益事业,可以为日益富裕的人们提供有效的理财工具,为人们提供一种充满爱心的消遣活动,居民购买彩票本质上是个体投机动机驱使下的一种消费行为。文章提出,国家应从积极方面加强监管,减少其负面效应,取消额度控制,大力发展彩票业,因为彩票业不是金融业,政府可以有效调控彩票市场;同时要适度强化居民购买者的“纳税取向”,不仅可以有效规避投机动机的负面效应,对于我国社会经济的长期发展也会发挥积极的作用。     

The Influence of Entrepreneurial Risk Assessment on Venture Launch or Growth Decisions

Entrepreneurs are thought to engage in riskier behavior than nonentrepreneurs, yet little empirical evidence supports that intuitively appealing notion. We argue instead that differences in information, not risk aversion, may explain the decision to launch or grow a venture. We separately test risk taking propensity and risk assessment. We hypothesize that entrepreneurs will not differ from nonentrepreneurs on risk taking propensity. Additionally, we propose and test a model of risk assessment. The sample size for this exploratory study is n=53 with 30 respondents declaring themselves as entrepreneurs and 23 declaring themselves as nonentrepreneurs. The study’s design is a simulation. Each respondent is provided with data on a potential acquisition that would result in either the launch of a new venture or significant growth for an existing firm. Consistent with the hypotheses, the results show no difference between entrepreneurs and nonentrepreneurs on the risk taking measure. We also find that we can predict entrepreneurial behavior based on risk assessment. We close with a discussion of limitations and directions for future research.     

采用遗传算法的企业动态联盟风险分析与评价研究

企业动态联盟风险体系包括内生体系和外生体系两个方面 ,根据企业动态联盟不同的风险 ,采用不同的分析与评价方法 ,在某种程度上提高了企业动态联盟风险分析与评价的准确性 ,同时也降低了企业动态联盟风险评价的难度。对动态联盟中承担生产任务的成员企业风险因素进行分析 ,采用遗传算法对其风险进行评价 ,旨在为企业动态联盟的具体实施及其风险分析与评价提供技术上的支持     

Subjective food-risk judgements in tourists

Sources of risk in contemporary tourism vary over a long array of phenomena ranging from the risk of terror attacks to risks related to food and consumption. Currently, alleged food-risk sources such as Creutzfeldt–Jacobs Disease (CJD; commonly known as “Mad Cow Disease”), Salmonella, Scrapie disease and even genetically modified food are salient in mass media.In the present study, we addressed the pervasiveness of tourists’ judgements of such food-related risks. As part of a larger study, some 1880 individual tourists (from 48 different nations) answered a questionnaire pertaining to food-risk issues. Based on the logics of the availability heuristic, we expected that food risks would be judged to be lower in one's own home country than abroad. We also expected that people would rate various sources for food risk differently when rating food risks at home and abroad.The results indicate that risks linked to food are indeed perceived to be higher abroad than at home, regardless of where the respondents’ homes are, although attributions of risk to the various risk sources seem to vary between at home and abroad. The results also show a significant, but moderate correlation between travel experience and food-risk judgements abroad and at home. The results also indicate cultural differences in risk judgements concerning food.     

不确定性决策与人民币汇率

运用不确定条件下决策的理论和方法,来分析人民币汇率风险评价及管理过程。研究表明,为规避汇率风险,应在完善汇率形成机制的同时,建立健全汇率政策信息的传递与反馈渠道;在微观方面,应积极建立衍生产品市场,为企业的避险行为提供有效的交易平台。     

谈加权平均资本成本法在个别项目评估中的应用

现实当中,由于企业暂时无需纳税,资本结构当中债务融资比例不固定,个别项目与企业整体资产风险差异较大等因素的存在,使得直接运用加权平均资本成本(WACC)对个别项目进行价值评估和资本预算分析容易产生较大的偏差甚至可能导致错误的决策,因此,对具体项目的风险系数进行调整以正确使用WACC方法进行项目价值评估,从而使得出的结论更为可靠有效,有助于企业更好地进行项目筹资和投资决策。     

利率市场化要求建立全方位的银行风险管理模式

利率市场化作为我国迈向市场经济的重要标志之一，不仅意味着我国金融机构自身的经营管理风险水平提高，同时也增加了所有其它行业发展的不稳定因素，从而使得最终积聚在银行的风险更复杂而突出。因此，我国商业银行的风险管理任务很重，必须不断深化银行改革，建立全面风险管理模式。     

美国依赖评级的监管规则对评级风险的影响综述

1933年启用依赖评级的监管规则（RDRs）以来,学者研究了RDRs监管对评级风险的影响,结果表明,RDRs监管明显地助长了评级风险。今后,监管当局应弱化金融监管对评级的依赖,通过取消NRSRO或类似指定、允许适度的评级竞争,有限使用发行人付费模型,并限制发行人付费模型下发行人对评级机构的选择权,强化评级机构法律和社会责任等方式,减轻RDRs监管的负面影响。