What do professional forecasters actually predict?

This paper studies what professional forecasters predict. We use spectral analysis and state space modeling to decompose economic time series into trend, business cycle, and irregular components. We examine which components are captured by professional forecasters by regressing their forecasts on the estimated components extracted from both the spectral analysis and the state space model. For both decomposition methods, we find that, in the short run, the Survey of Professional Forecasters can predict almost all of the variation in the time series due to the trend and the business cycle, but that the forecasts contain little or no significant information about the variation in the irregular component.     

基于熵的房地产开发企业核心竞争力评价的组合权值方法

分析了目前房地产开发企业核心竞争力评价方法存在的问题,提出了评价指标的组合权值法,建立了评价指标体系,并进行了实际评价,指出了此方法的科学合理性。     

股票价格波动的信息渠道影响研究——基于媒体报道和分析师预测的视角

文章手工收集、整理了2006-2015年中国A股上市公司的媒体报道倾向数据,实证研究了媒体报道正向倾向与分析师乐观预测偏差对上市公司负收益偏态系数的影响。研究表明,虽然媒体报道正向倾向、分析师乐观预测均分别对上市公司股价负收益偏态系数产生显著的负向影响,但是两者的交互项对股价负收益偏态系数的影响则是显著为正,即当媒体报道正面倾向与分析师乐观预测两者共同作用时,将会触发"信息过度关注偏差"机制,从而降低了上市公司股票收益。文章研究还发现,媒体报道、分析师预测和"信息过度关注偏差"机制的作用强度,在市场化程度高地区要明显大于市场化程度低地区,可能的原因是市场化程度高地区的企业更加容易被媒体报道和分析师关注,进而产生更强的关注效应。     

Efficient estimation of forecast uncertainty based on recent forecast errors

Multi-step-ahead forecasts of the forecast uncertainty of an individual forecaster are often based on the horizon-specific sample means of his recent squared forecast errors, where the number of past forecast errors available decreases one-to-one with the forecast horizon. In this paper, the efficiency gains from the joint estimation of forecast uncertainty for all horizons in such samples are investigated. If the forecast uncertainty is estimated by seemingly unrelated regressions, it turns out that the covariance matrix of the squared forecast errors does not have to be estimated, but simply needs to have a certain structure, which is a very useful property in small samples. Considering optimal and non-optimal forecasts, it is found that the efficiency gains can be substantial for longer horizons in small samples. The superior performance of the seemingly-unrelated-regressions approach is confirmed in several empirical applications.     

产品研制“三化”工作研究与探索

阐述了产品研制"三化"工作意义和内涵,介绍了"三化"工作内容,提出了"三化"工作重点和工作方法。     

浅析施工企业的自主创新

在当前经济快速发展过程中,自主创新能力是提高施工企业核心竞争力的关键。本文结合我国建筑企业在自主创新方面的做法,分析了施工企业的自主创新体现在技术创新和管理创新两个方面,并提出了通过组合技术、以市场为导向、重视人才资源等途径来提高自主创新能力,从而提高施工企业自身的竞争力和建筑行业的科学发展。     

Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future

A variety of methods and ideas have been tried for electricity price forecasting (EPF) over the last 15 years, with varying degrees of success. This review article aims to explain the complexity of available solutions, their strengths and weaknesses, and the opportunities and threats that the forecasting tools offer or that may be encountered. The paper also looks ahead and speculates on the directions EPF will or should take in the next decade or so. In particular, it postulates the need for objective comparative EPF studies involving (i) the same datasets, (ii) the same robust error evaluation procedures, and (iii) statistical testing of the significance of one model’s outperformance of another.     

“校企合作、产学结合”人才培养模式的实践与探索——以南京化工职业技术学院为例

本文分析南京化工职业技术学院实施＂校企合作、产学结合＂的基础和保障,提出具有鲜明特色的＂1＋1＋1＂的分段式人才培养模式和＂T11＂的顶岗实习模式,在＂1＋1＋1＂分段式人才培养模式和＂T11＂顶岗实习模式基础上完成重构理论、实践课程体系构建。     

Combining forecasts: some results on exchange and interest rates

The aim of this work is to investigate whether the combination of forecasts plays an important role in the improvement of forecast accuracy Particular attention is paid to: (a) the methods of forecasting (the methods compared are neural networks, fuzzy logic, GARCH models, switching regime and chaotic dynamics); (b) combining the forecasts provided by the different methods. This work has also the aim of revising a short-term econometric forecast using a longer-term forecast. The revision process usually runs the opposite way (revision is made on a longer-term forecast using a short-term one to reflect the current available information, but it is not excluded that it is possible to proceed as described above. Daily data from the financial market is used. Some empirical applications on exchange and interest rates are given.     

Excel与SPSS在线性回归预测中的比较分析

线性回归分析是经济管理与预测的一个重要的量化分析方法。分别运用Excel与SPSS对同一实际问题进行线性回归分析,得出两种软件在线性回归预测问题上各有其优势,在经济管理的实际应用中无论选择那种软件都要了解其功能和操作的特点,有助于对实际问题恰当而且正确地分析与预测。