Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future

A variety of methods and ideas have been tried for electricity price forecasting (EPF) over the last 15 years, with varying degrees of success. This review article aims to explain the complexity of available solutions, their strengths and weaknesses, and the opportunities and threats that the forecasting tools offer or that may be encountered. The paper also looks ahead and speculates on the directions EPF will or should take in the next decade or so. In particular, it postulates the need for objective comparative EPF studies involving (i) the same datasets, (ii) the same robust error evaluation procedures, and (iii) statistical testing of the significance of one model’s outperformance of another.     

“校企合作、产学结合”人才培养模式的实践与探索——以南京化工职业技术学院为例

本文分析南京化工职业技术学院实施＂校企合作、产学结合＂的基础和保障,提出具有鲜明特色的＂1＋1＋1＂的分段式人才培养模式和＂T11＂的顶岗实习模式,在＂1＋1＋1＂分段式人才培养模式和＂T11＂顶岗实习模式基础上完成重构理论、实践课程体系构建。     

Combining forecasts: some results on exchange and interest rates

The aim of this work is to investigate whether the combination of forecasts plays an important role in the improvement of forecast accuracy Particular attention is paid to: (a) the methods of forecasting (the methods compared are neural networks, fuzzy logic, GARCH models, switching regime and chaotic dynamics); (b) combining the forecasts provided by the different methods. This work has also the aim of revising a short-term econometric forecast using a longer-term forecast. The revision process usually runs the opposite way (revision is made on a longer-term forecast using a short-term one to reflect the current available information, but it is not excluded that it is possible to proceed as described above. Daily data from the financial market is used. Some empirical applications on exchange and interest rates are given.     

Excel与SPSS在线性回归预测中的比较分析

线性回归分析是经济管理与预测的一个重要的量化分析方法。分别运用Excel与SPSS对同一实际问题进行线性回归分析,得出两种软件在线性回归预测问题上各有其优势,在经济管理的实际应用中无论选择那种软件都要了解其功能和操作的特点,有助于对实际问题恰当而且正确地分析与预测。     

浅谈爆炸硬化辙叉在朔黄线的应用

随着西煤东运第二条大通道朔黄铁路运量的增加,运输压力越来越大。自90年代以来,铁路运输飞速发展,提速、重载给工务线路带来了一系列问题,尤其是辙叉已远远不能满足铁路提速重载的要求。2011年开始朔黄铁路在黎明居车站3号、4号岔位和神池南车站2083#、2043#岔位陆续试用了60-12#和75-12#爆炸硬化辙叉。实践表明,爆炸硬化辙叉提高了道岔使用寿命,增大了安全系数,创造更多的经济效益和社会价值。     

Modelling the cost-effectiveness of nevirapine triple combination therapy and dual combination therapy for the treatment of HIV disease in the United Kingdom

Summary

Recent advances in HIV antiretroviral therapy together with limited budgets have forced payers to look for evidence that new combinations provide good value for money. Using a public financing perspective, two Markov models are employed to evaluate the first-year outcomes and costs and the long-term cost-effectiveness of adding nevirapine (NVP) to dual combination therapy with zidovudine (ZDV) and didanosine (ddI) in the United Kingdom.

First-year medical care savings are estimated to be £2,122 (103.8% of NVP cost). In the longer term, NVP/ZDV/ddI therapy yields £6,186 per life year saved (costs discounted at 6%). The model is moderately sensitive only to duration of therapy effects and the therapy initiation time. These model estimates suggest that policy makers may expect to observe superior initial health outcomes and substantial medical cost savings during the first year of therapy, as well as acceptable long-term cost-effectiveness, when NVP/ZDV/ddI is used in place of dual therapy.     

我国内部控制与公司治理机制的有效对接

内部控制的深层次问题在于我国许多企业缺乏完善、健全的公司治理机制以及有效的公司治理机制与内部控制的互动和对接。因此,只有立足于我国的社会基础、制度体系和文化特征,构筑有中国特色的公司治理机制,才能培育出中国的现代企业。     

信息产品营销策略初探

本文在分析了信息产品的特点和市场特性的基础上,提出了信息产品的基本营销策略。     

客户关系管理的SCOPE模型

大力发展客户关系管理,增强竞争力,提高企业利润,是企业的一个必然选择。根据客户、供应商、企业主或投资商、员工、第三方合作伙伴这五个客户关系管理的主要方面,提出了客户关系管理的S.C.O.P.E模型。企业应以客户为核心,关注战略性重要客户,提高客户满意度,进行客户组合分析并采取相应的策略,同时只有与供应商、企业主/投资商、员工、伙伴这四个方面相互协作、相互发展,才能为客户创造、提供价值,实现客户关系管理的成功。     

一种自调节夹紧机构的设计及其异构体

给出一种不用液压装置的可调节夹紧机构,并应用连杆分类学技术推导出一组该机构的异构体,以提供更多的选择方案,对现有的推导方式进行了简化,通过将推导重点放在局部关键技术部位,使连杆类配方案大大减少,推导结果更具针对性和实用性,并可方便的进行手工推导。文章给出了详细的推导过程。