Core Earnings Uncertainty,Dividend Change Announcements and the Reduction of Covariance Component Risks

We present evidence of two systematic market risk implications associated with core earnings news implicit in dividend change announcements: (1) a decline in firm‐market correlation intensity, consistent with reduced investor reliance on overall market movements to value shares, and (2) a downward shift in standard deviation of returns, consistent with increased core earnings information precision. Decoupling these two covariance component risk effects is important because they can offset one another at the firm level, masking unique market influences on total systematic risk. Each is influenced by the information environment in different ways and each is shown to incrementally explain returns in a manner consistent with the capital asset pricing model (CAPM).     

Betting against sentiment? Seemingly unrelated anomalies and the low-risk effect

The negative CAPM alphas of high-beta and high-variance stocks are attributable to an unaccounted factor in the CAPM. We use eight seemingly unrelated anomalies to construct a composite factor in the spirit of the optimal orthogonal portfolio (FOP). Accounting for FOP re-establishes a positive relation between beta and average returns in time series regressions as well as cross-sectional and explains the negative alphas of high-beta and high-variance stocks. To analyze economic drivers behind FOP, we perform a horse race between leverage constraints, investor sentiment, and disagreement. Our results highlight investor sentiment as the most promising explanation for the low-risk effect.     

如何运用CAPM进行股票持有的分析——基于2014年5月的澳大利亚电信有限公司和新加坡电信的股票报表

本文采取了由上而下的投资分析,分别调查了澳大利亚最大的电讯有限公司Telstra(ASX:TLS)和新加坡的全资子公司Optus(ASX:SGT)。采用资本资产定价模型(CAPM)分别计算两家公司(TLS.AX和SGT.AX)的beta数值(0.3630和0.0721)和预期收益率(4.89%和3.12%)。     

Conditional risk and performance evaluation: Volatility timing, overconditioning, and new estimates of momentum alphas

Unconditional alphas are biased when conditional beta covaries with the market risk premium (market timing) or volatility (volatility timing). We demonstrate an additional bias (overconditioning) that can occur any time an empiricist estimates risk using information, such as a realized beta, that is not available to investors ex ante. Calibrating to U.S. equity returns, volatility timing and overconditioning can plausibly impact alphas more than market timing, which has been the focus of prior literature. To correct market- and volatility-timing biases without overconditioning, we show that incorporating realized betas into instrumental variables estimators is effective. Empirically, instrumentation reduces momentum alphas by 20-40%. Overconditioned alphas overstate performance by up to 2.5 times. We explain the sources of both the volatility-timing and overconditioning biases in momentum portfolios.     

CAPM模型对上证钢铁板块的实证研究

根据CAPM模型的原理,本文就上海股票市场钢铁板块的全部20只股票的系统性风险以及股权分置改革对其系统性风险的影响进行了实证分析。发现了许多我国股市发展中的存在的许多问题,说明近年来中国股市虽有较快发展,但仍然是一个不成熟的股市。     

基于模糊收益率的CAPM实证检验

首先引入模糊收益率的概念,讨论了基于模糊线性回归模型的资本资产定价模型(CAPM)变化形式。作为应用,随机选取上海证券交易所的一支股票,安徽合力(600761),统计该股票在2009年1月1日至2010年12月31日的周收益率以及同期的市场周收益率,共102个数据。对所取得的数据进行模糊化和平移处理,求出其模糊回归方程。利用2011年的数据对回归方程进行检验,结果显示回归方程的拟合效果符合实际,CAPM在单支股票上是可行的,可用于指导实际的投资操作。     

资本资产定价模型在上海股市中的拟合程度分析

资本资产定价模型(Capital Assets Pricing Model)是一个均衡模型的例子,同时也是一个相对定价模型。基于股票市场规模大,数据公开等特点,本文将研究CAPM模型在中国股票二级市场的实证问题。利用相关的假设检验,我们得出上海的股票市场是不满足CAPM理论(表达式)的,并给出了适当的可行性建议。     

基于CAPM的人力成本计量模型研究

在人力资本产权理论下,二元资本结构已被考虑了人力资本的三元资本结构所取代,合理计量人力资本成本成为企业管理的迫切要求。本文把人力资本分为五大类型,在类型范围内计量个体人力成本,并对资本资产定价模型(CAPM)进行两个层次的修正,构建了考虑风险因素的人力资本成本计量模型,该模型对现代企业人力资本成本的合理计量具有指导作用。     

具有结构突变的CAPM的阶段异方差和自相关性的调整LM检验

由于金融市场是动荡不定的,资产定价模型CAPM往往会出现结构突变,异方差,序列相关,因此需要对CAPM的随机误差进行齐性检验。对于具有单个结构突变点的CAPM,本文得到了检验阶段异方差和自相关性的调整LM检验统计量。Monte Carlo模拟的结果显示,该调整LM检验统计量具有比普通LM检验统计量更好的检验功效。最后,我们用一个具体的实例论证了方法的有效性。     

基于风险基金的资本资产定价模型

本文提出并证明了基于风险基金的CAPM模型。基于风险基金的CAPM模型描述了资产的收益与风险之间的线性关系 ,其中资产的风险定义为资产收益率与风险基金收益率的协方差除以风险基金收益率的方差。作为应用例子 ,本文使用基于风险基金的CAPM模型证明了著名的CCAPM模型。