Discounting Mean Reverting Cash Flows with the Capital Asset Pricing Model

Discounting cash flows requires an equilibrium model to determine the cost of capital. The CAPM of Sharpe and the intertemporal asset pricing model of Merton (1973) offer a theoretical justification for discounting at a constant risk adjusted rate. Two problems arise with this application. First, for mean reverting cash flows the risk adjustment is unknown, and second, if the present value is compounded forward then the distribution of future wealth is likely right skewed. I develop equilibrium discount rates for cash flows whose level or growth rate is mean reverting. Serial correlation also largely eliminates the skewness problem.     

The Determinants of REIT Institutional Ownership: Tests of the CAPM

This study examines the determinants of institutional investment demand for REIT common stock. We estimate the demand function for financial institutions using the mean return and CAPM risk measures (beta and standard error) for REIT stocks. The objective is to determine whether institutional investment decisions are influenced by CAPM model attributes. In addition, we examine the predicatability of REIT institutional ownership based on the factors in our model. We employ conventional OLS forecasting techniques, as well as two neural network models in order to deal with possible nonlinearities in the relationships.     

上海证券市场CAPM的实证检验

资本资产定价模型CAPM自诞生以来经历了无数次的检验,早期的实证检验多支持和肯定,后来更多的研究否定了它的有效性,认为β对股票没有解释能力。本分四个时间段对上海证券市场CAPM有效性进行检验,否定了CAPM在前三个时间段的有效笥,不能拒绝其在第四时间段有效。随着时间的推移,非系统风险对股票收益的解释能力越来越弱。     

The Impact of Single Stock Futures on Market Efficiency and Volatility: A Dynamic CAPM Approach

The concerns regarding regulations of futures markets and their destabilizing ability are unresolved in both developed and developing markets. Following stringent regulations of single stock futures (SSFs) for resumption episode after financial crises, this study addresses this concern and investigates the destabilizing impact of SSFs on the underlying stocks in an emerging economy using data of companies listed in the Karachi Stock Exchange between 1999 and 2008. Specifically, the study explores whether SSFs have caused a simultaneous increase in the volatility and operational efficiency of their underlying spot market counterparts. The results reported in the study show that the introduction of SSFs has no significant impact on market efficiency and volatility of SSFs underlying stocks and non-SSFs stocks. The results affirm that SSFs have, at least, no destabilizing impact on the underlying stocks.     

Currency risk premia and uncovered interest parity in the International CAPM

Zero-investment uncovered interest parity (UIP) portfolio positions provide perfect factor-mimicking portfolios for currency risk in the International CAPM context. Their returns are the currency risk premia. Since the UIP positions on average provide low returns, the currency risk premia must be low so that currency risk appears not to be priced in an unconditional model. However, previous research has shown that UIP returns are predictable and may be quite substantial conditionally. We use this observation to generate a specific conditional version of the International CAPM. A GMM approach shows that the conditional model performs well, while the unconditional International CAPM is (marginally) rejected. The paper thus argues that previous rejections of the International CAPM stem from the fact that currency risk premia are by nature low over extended periods of time and do not provide evidence against the International CAPM.     

金融资产定价异常与资产定价模型:理论与实证

通过委托-代理理论对传统资产定价模型进行的拓展,得出了信息不对称下的扩展资产定价和代理成本资产定价模型.据此,进一步通过因子分析设计出了反映逆向选择、道德风险和代理成本的相应变量,并运用上市公司的相应数据对传统的资产定价模型(CAPM)、羊群效应CAPM、FF三因素模型、扩展的CAPM和代理成本CAPM进行了对比分析.对比结果显示:在保证系数和模型准确性的前提下,运用二阶段最小二乘法(TSLS)对扩展的CAPM和代理成本CAPM的估计结果相较于上述三类模型显示了更强的解释力度.     

以MM理论与CAPM模型结合为基础的项目评估研究

当企业进行一个新行业项目投资时,项目的风险有可能高于企业现有的平均风险水平,因此采用什么样的贴现率对新项目进行评估,是企业是否进行该项目投资的一个主要判断。目前对MM理论与CAPM理论的结合研究大都以资本成本公式比较为基础,得到负债经营与未负债经营企业之间风险系数的等式。当我们把企业本身视为资产组合时,企业资产的风险系数应该是权益资本和债务资本风险系数的加权平均,结合MM理论中对负债的风险定义也可以得到该等式。同时,如何把计算出的＂未负债系数＂应用到企业投资评估中有现实意义。     

金融危机后上海证券市场的资本资产定价模型的实证研究

本文针对金融危机后上海证券市场的资本评估和定价有效性．运用计量方法进行资本资产定价模型的实证检验。所选取数据的实证结果表明CAPM在上海股票市场的应用有一定有效性．说明中国证券市场正在逐渐形成有效的风险收益权衡投资机制。     

交叉上市的资本成本效应之实证研究

交叉上市的资本成本效应是从公司理财角度研究交叉上市的核心领域。本文以截止2008年6月30日在内地、纽约与香港交叉上市的11家中国公司为样本,分别采用CAPM和Gordon模型估算分析公司在内地、纽约和香港三个市场的资本成本,结果表明:(1)在A股市场CAPM模型下的资本成本要高于Gordon模型下的资本成本,而在N股市场和H股市场,结果相反;(2)采用CAPM模型与Gordon模型均证明公司在A股市场的资本成本(β系数)低于其在N股和H股市场的资本成本。A股市场较低的资本成本反映出我国股票市场对投资者利益保护不足,我国股票市场亟需加强对投资者利益的保护。     

Estimating the cost of equity for private firms using accounting fundamentals

Finance literature suggests the use of the Accounting Beta (BACC) as a proxy for the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) market beta to estimate the cost of equity capital when the stock price is not available. Previous researchers have aimed to achieve this objective by determining the correlation between accounting variables and the market beta. However, the magnitude of the resulting error in this correlation has remained unknown. The current study is an attempt to test the performance of the BACC as a proxy measure for the market risk and to examine the extent of the statistical error in the correlation between these two measures. Our findings indicate that BACC overestimates the market beta by between 20% and 50%. Applying some corrective measures, such as operational earnings scaled by equity, may lessen this difference to a range of 22%–25%; however, it does not eliminate the error. Our output also suggests that the BACC might be biased when used to assess the risk of small firms.